Category: Service Industries
Service Industries market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Latin America - Trinidad and Tobago
Analysis by Region - Latin America - Trinidad and Tobago We expect GDP will grow by 3.0% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025. Resilience in non-fuel sectors has led to a more optimistic outlook for Trinidad and Tobago's economy. The US economy has also continued to outperform expectations, helping to suppo ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Europe
Analysis by Region - Europe We have revised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Kyrgyzstan to 4% y/y, 0.2ppts down from the previous forecast. We expect that growth will drop to 3.2% y/y in 2025, but will then hover around 4% in the medium to long term. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Curacao
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Curacao We expect Curaçao's GDP to grow by 1.3% this year, marking a slowdown from a recent post-pandemic rebound. The higher interest rate environment will weigh on private investment in important industries and the slowdown in global growth will hurt t ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Myanmar
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Myanmar We've cut our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Myanmar to 2.2%. This reflects the deteriorating security situation and its spillovers into every corner of the economy. The consumer outlook is still bleak as high inflation continues to weigh on real inc ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Suriname
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Suriname We maintained our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Suriname at 2.1% y/y because ongoing high inflation, anti-austerity protests, and a weaker global economy will likely depress real incomes. We now expect the recent oil discoveries will start to contribute t ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kosovo
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kosovo We updated our GDP forecast for 2024, nudging down our forecast by 0.2pts to 3.7%. This reflects our expectation that 2023 saw greater GDP growth than we anticipated, which we now believe came in at 3.7%, 0.3pts higher than we forecast in November. Our ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa
Analysis by Region - Africa Available data indicates that economic momentum slowed in Q1 2024. However, despite a brief dip into contractionary territory in March, the PMI still signals growth in the economy's agricultural, construction, wholesale & retail, industrial, and services sectors o ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Tajikistan
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Tajikistan We've nudged down our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Tajikistan by 0.8ppts to 4.3% y/y, to reflect heightened tensions with Russia following the Moscow Crocus City Hall attack. We've also adjusted our inflation forecast after recent data showe ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The data released this week signaled the possible start of a course correction for inflation that should keep the Federal Reserve on track to begin rate cuts later this year. The Fed will need to see more than one positive report on inflation before lowering rates, but ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Albania
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Albania We have raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Albania by 1.1ppts to 2.9%. The economy has proven resilient to the inflation shock and tighter monetary policy, with a strong finish to 2023 providing a healthy carryover for growth in 2024. Growth will ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Gabon
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Gabon General Brice Oligui Nguema's coup d'état in August 2023 caused political upheaval but marked a monumental step towards Gabon's democratic renewal. Gen Oligui has solidified his support, leading to increased political stability. The tran ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Taiwan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Taiwan We continue to expect Taiwan’s growth outlook will be supported by the upward trend of the global tech cycle and the surging demand for AI chips. The impact of the recent earthquake on the local economy is likely to be only temporary and will not alter the ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - South Korea
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - South Korea South Korea's GDP grew by 1.3% q/q or 3.4% y/y in Q1, the fastest in nine consecutive quarters, due to the recovery in domestic demand. Investment rebounded by 1.5% q/q and consumption by 0.8% q/q, in total contributing 0.8ppts to growth in t ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom A second successive rise in GDP in February and an upward revision to January's increase bolstered our confidence that the UK economy is finally beginning to recover after two years of stagnation. With timelier indicators for March also positive, GDP is ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bahrain
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bahrain We've revised up our 2024 growth forecast for Bahrain from 1.8% to 1.9% and expect a slight easing to 1.8% in 2025. Last year, GDP growth lost momentum, falling to 1.7% amid challenging global economic circumstances. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Europe - Switzerland
Analysis by Region - Europe - Switzerland We've raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Switzerland by 0.2ppts to 1.4% (or to 1.1% when adjusted for revenues from major sporting events). Although the outlook for this year has improved slightly, our revised forecast is still in line with the expe ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Cambodia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Cambodia We've nudged down our forecasts for Cambodia's GDP growth, to 5.4% from 5.6% for 2023 and to 6.4% from 6.5% for 2024, given that the recovery in tourism fared below our expectations. Although, new export drivers in agricultural products and elect ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sao Tome and Principe
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sao Tome and Principe Real GDP growth is envisaged to expand to 2.5% in 2024, as the island is benefitting from skyrocketing cocoa prices. The price of cocoa began creeping up in the second half of 2022, before rising rapidly in early 2024 to hit a record high ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US Treasury yields climbed steadily throughout this past week as bearish data caused Fed rate cut expectations to shrink, supply pressures weighed, oil prices rose, and technical support levels failed. Three-year through seven-year yields rose more than 25bps as ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Vietnam
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Vietnam We have raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Vietnam by 0.2ppts to 5.2% to reflect a stronger end to 2023 than we'd expected. The external sector is likely to be key to the outlook. We assume some levelling off in export growth after a strong rebou ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - New Zealand
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - New Zealand We have downgraded our 2023 GDP growth forecast for New Zealand by 1.7ppts to 0.3% y/y as large revisions to GDP and weaker than expected activity in Q3 paint a sour picture. The headwinds to households are approaching their peak, so we think the decl ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The resilience of the economy was on full display this week, with the monthly data showing that much of the surprising Q4 GDP strength was backloaded to December, suggesting the economy is entering 2024 on a strong footing. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US Treasury yields were mixed this week, steadying as key support levels held even as the curve steepened. The two-year yield was slightly lower on the week as of mid-Friday afternoon, while yields through the intermediate sector were little changed, and bond yie ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom December's modest uptick in UK inflation was largely driven by one-off and temporary factors. While we'll probably see a further rise in January, all the major components will be pushing inflation downwards by the spring. We think that inflation is s ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US Some of the rapid late 2023 move to price in rate cuts has been reversed in early 2024 trading, but we think markets remain too aggressively positioned, with the FOMC not likely to begin the rate cutting cycle until the May meeting. That could nudge Treasury y ... Read More
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