Category: Service Industries
Service Industries market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Jamaica
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Jamaica We've revised down our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Jamaica slightly to 2.0% from 2.1% but we maintain our forecast of 2.1% growth for 2025. We think the slowdown in domestic consumption and external demand, and the only modest recovery in investme ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - El Salvador
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - El Salvador We’ve cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for El Salvador by 0.1 ppt to 1.9%. President Bukele's plan to reduce expenditures through layoffs and decreased transfers will weigh on household expenditures and government consumption next year. Althoug ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa
Analysis by Region - Africa Ethiopia has made rapid progress on policy reforms over the past three months. Adopting a market-determined FX regime and loosening restrictions on the current account unlocked a four-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) on July 29. Authorities accessed a second-tranche di ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Polls have shifted in favor of Republicans in recent days. Former President Donald Trump is leading in just enough battleground states to win the Electoral College. Key Senate races where Democrats are defending their seats have tightened, and House Democrats are no lon ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Serbia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Serbia We raised our GDP forecast for 2024 by 0.6ppts to 4.1% in 2024 and left 2025 unchanged at 4%. Better-than-expected GDP data outturns led us to revise our forecast for this year. In 2025, a more favourable carryover effect will offset the slightly softer qu ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iceland
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iceland We forecast Iceland's economy will expand by 2.8% in 2025, accelerating from 0.9% this year. Prospects have improved due to a better demographic outlook. We expect more stubborn inflation, averaging 3.9% next year and 6.0% in 2024, due to its stickine ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Long-term interest rates trended higher over the past several weeks but the increase doesn't pose a significant downside risk to our forecast. Some of the increase is attributed to the bond market betting on former President Donald Trump winning the election, sugges ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves confirmed that she would make material changes to the fiscal rules in order to boost public investment. A move to targeting a fall in public sector net financial liabilities over the course of the parliament looks likely. But we e ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Central African Republic
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Central African Republic The Central African Republic (CAR) remains entrenched in a complex web of conflict, regulatory uncertainty, and fuel shortages. Yet, despite all the difficulties, the economy is holding on thanks to a surge in gold prices, a rebound in ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Both we and the IMF expect a pick-up in growth in Latin America and the Caribbean next year. We see a rise to 2.5% y/y from 1.9% in 2024, as the region benefits from a global soft landing and looser monetary policy. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cape Verde
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cape Verde Annual economic growth averaged 9.7% y/y in the first half of 2024, with strong performances in the transport (23.3% y/y) and accommodation and food service (37.9% y/y) sectors. However, due to the high base, growth is expected to slow in the year&# ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo Republic
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo Republic Congo's average oil production declined to 259,000 bpd in the first nine months of the year from 275,300 bpd in the same period in 2023. We now project a sharper 4.0% reduction in Congo's average oil output for 2024 (-3.1% estimated prev ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Greece
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Greece In its regular data revision process, ELSTAT revised up both nominal and real GDP for Greece. As a result, nominal GDP data for 2023 is now 2.3% higher than the previous estimate. We'll incorporate the new data into our forecast as soon as the quarterl ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Austria
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Austria Economic activity in Austria remained weaker than we anticipated in recent months and heavy floods in September presented an additional drag. Consequently, we now expect flat quarterly growth for Q3. But risks are skewed to the downside as industrial prod ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Togo
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Togo Following real GDP growth of 6.4% last year, we forecast economic growth to average 4.7% p.a. over the 2024-2025 period. Factors that will support economic activity over this time frame include structural reforms, key investments in the industrial sector, ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Botswana
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Botswana Botswana’s diamond industry has continued to struggle after a poor start to the year: it contracted by 6.5% q/q in Q2, after a sharp decline of 16.6% q/q in Q1 2024. Recent diamond sales and export data have also revealed a concerning downward trend, ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burkina Faso
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burkina Faso Burkina Faso’s fragile security situation has been compounded by persistent challenges, especially related to poor weather conditions and policy uncertainty in the mining sector. However, the surge in gold prices throughout 2024 has provided a sil ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom After an early-summer lull, UK GDP returned to growth in August. Though the pace of growth has clearly cooled from the well above-trend rates seen in H1 2024, the economy continues to enjoy decent momentum. We're unlikely to change our forecast that GDP ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Benin
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Benin Benin’s economy rebounded strongly from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, expanding by 6.6% p.a. over the 2021-2023 period. This impressive performance is set to persist, and we forecast average annual growth of 6.2% for 2024 and 2025. Robust investm ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The September data on consumer and producer prices were mixed, but it doesn't alter our near-term forecast for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25bps at each of its two remaining meetings this year. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Middle class opportunities are increasingly coming from markets with more balanced growth drivers, and less dependency on commodity exports. So an effective Asia strategy will be key for companies to capitalize on the largest scale and fastest growth of mi ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Lebanon faces a war that might be broader in scope than the one between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006. After killing Hassan Nasrallah, the longtime leader of Hezbollah, in an attack on Beirut over the weekend, Israel looks poised to launch ground raids into ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom National accounts revisions confirmed that the UK's post-pandemic recovery was slightly stronger than initially thought. But a big downward revision to the saving ratio suggests less scope for dissaving from the household sector, so we plan to nudge down ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Gambia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Gambia Official GDP figures show that the Gambian economy exceeded expectations last year. Indications are that this year will be no different. The economy grew by 5.3% in 2023, supported by sound performances in the agricultural, telecommunications, and const ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Seychelles
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Seychelles We forecast real GDP growth of 3.1% in 2024 as investments in the information technology sector boost economic activity. While tourism revenue prospects for the short term are improving, tourist arrivals still fall short of pre-pandemic levels. Incr ... Read More
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