Category: Service Industries
Service Industries market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Bangladesh
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Bangladesh We expect Bangladesh's real GDP growth will slow down over FY2024/25 (ending in June 2025) after expanding by an estimated 5.8% in FY2023/24. We've revised down our forecast to a 5.5% expansion, from 6.1% previously. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bulgaria
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bulgaria We estimate that the Bulgarian economy will grow by 2.2% this year and 2.9% next. Receding inflation will sustain real incomes and the delayed impact of tighter monetary policy will gradually wane. We have raised our inflation outlook to 2.6% this year a ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chad
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chad Foreign direct investment in Chad surged by 48% y/y in 2023, largely directed at new oil and gas exploration and infrastructure. However, ongoing legal disputes between existing oil operators and the government, and uncertainty around the new political le ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Slovenia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Slovenia We've cut our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Slovenia by 0.6ppts to 1.4% due to a stagnation in H1. But we've increased our forecast for 2025 by 0.2ppts to 2.7%. We expect domestic demand will be the main growth engine, amid large real income gains ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Libya
Analysis by Region - Africa - Libya In the past quarter, conflict risk in Libya has increased markedly. A struggle for influence over the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) precipitated a crisis in mid-August, and the CBL is now split between factions that follow the instructions of the country’s two rival ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany Value-added industrial output shrunk again through the first half of 2024. Most of the positive signs cited in our last quarter’s report have either reversed or stalled out: monthly industrial production figures showed steep falls first in May and then ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burundi
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burundi Heavy rains throughout Burundi between January and May this year have caused floods and landslides, leading to widespread displacement of people, infrastructural damage, and poor crop production. Given that over 80% of Burundians are employed in the ag ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Eurozone
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Eurozone We forecast industrial production output to contract approximately 2.1% in 2024, as it appears that the recovery is proceeding at a slower pace than expected. While headline inflation has fallen and the European Central Bank (ECB) has continued its su ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - China
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - China A slightly stronger-than-expected Q2 has lifted our 2024 growth forecast for industrial value-added output to 5.5%. However, the monthly data since have come in largely consistent with our previous forecast: growth has slowed from the highs of 7% y/y at ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mozambique
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mozambique Economic growth has been resilient in H1 2024, mainly reflecting expansions in hydrocarbon production and transport services. In the short term, natural gas production growth will stall due to a lack of new projects coming on stream, while widesprea ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Cyprus
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Cyprus We have raised our long-term GDP forecast for Cyprus by incorporating the impact of AI on the economy. We now estimate that GDP will be 1.3% higher by 2050, driven by higher productivity. We continue to project GDP will expand by 3% this year and 1.6% in 2 ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Eswatini
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Eswatini A robust services sector, supported by increased revenues from the Southern African Customs Union (Sacu), yielded an impressive economic growth rate of 4.8% in 2023. In 2024, another year of elevated Sacu revenues and an expansionary fiscal policy are ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Madagascar
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Madagascar High-frequency indicators suggest that economic growth in Madagascar was robust in Q2 2024. The central bank's Indicator of Business Activities (IAE) recorded a 17.2% y/y expansion in the second quarter, primarily driven by improved tertiary sec ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Comoros
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Comoros We forecast real GDP growth in the Comoros to advance to 3.3% in 2024 – a noteworthy improvement on last year's actual economic growth rate of 2.7%. Short- to medium-term economic growth is anticipated to be primarily driven by real investments and ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom Though monthly UK GDP data suggest the upturn may be faltering, recent outturns have been very noisy at a sectoral level, and we think the economy continues to carry solid momentum. So we have maintained our forecast that GDP will grow by 1.1% this year and ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The Federal Reserve will kick off its rate-cutting cycle at next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, with the only outstanding question being whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps. We think the data only justifies a 25bp cut. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Latvia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Latvia We've cut our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Latvia by 1.2ppts to just 0.6% since our last update in June. We attribute our downward revision primarily to a large growth disappointment in Q2, when the economy shrank by 1.1% q/q, posting the largest contr ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Senegal
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Senegal The Senegalese economy's slow start to the year prompted us to cut our 2024 real GDP growth forecast to 6.5% from our previous estimate of 7.9%. The delayed extraction of benefits from the nascent hydrocarbon industry means that the twin fiscal and ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Guinea
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Guinea Real GDP growth came in above our expectations at 7.1% in 2023, largely driven by robust growth in total fixed investment. We now project the Guinean economy to grow by 5.4% this year, higher than our previous estimate of 4.6%. Given the better-than-exp ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Argentina
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Argentina Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2024, falling by 7.7%, picking up to 6.2% growth in 2025. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific We've cut our 2024 GDP growth forecast for New Zealand to just 0.6% from 1.0% to reflect the sustained weakness in GDP growth in H1. Weakness in demand contributed to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision to kick off its cutting cycle in August. We expe ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mali
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mali Mali's real GDP growth stood at 4.7% in 2023, lower than our previous estimate of 5.2%. We expect growth to remain broadly stable at 4.6% this year. According to the landlocked nation's mining ministry, industrial gold production is projected to s ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets A positive lesson from the recent global volatility is that EM bonds and FX appear partially insulated when the risk-off is associated with declining US inflation expectations and a weakening greenback. Furthermore, we see an upside risk for EM bond return ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Economic policy uncertainty is rising earlier than normal for a presidential election year, and this has implications for the Q4 growth profile. Because of heightened uncertainty, we will adjust our forecast for Q4 business investment in nonresidential structures and eq ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Costa Rica
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Costa Rica We've nudged up our forecast for Costa Rica's GDP growth this year by 0.2ppts to 3.7% as investment figures surprised to the upside in Q2 2024. However, consumption has slowed down amid lower growth in real incomes and higher unemployment. M ... Read More
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