Category: Business Services & Administration
Business Services & Administration market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burundi
We forecast the economy to expand by 3.9% in 2025, driven by further expected gains in gold and coffee prices – both vital commodities to the domestic economy. Gold prices have already surged by 38.2% y/y in Q1, fuelled by heightened geopolitical tensions. Arabica coffee prices rose by 88.4% y/y ove ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Benin
Benin’s economy has been on a strong growth trajectory, with our estimates suggesting growth reached 6.5% last year. Infrastructure investment, industrialisation, and agricultural development have sustained high growth since the start of the decade. Investor confidence is increasing, as evidenced by ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Comoros
We forecast the Comorian economy to grow by 4.1% in 2025, continuing its decent economic performance over the past few years. Short- to medium-term economic growth is anticipated to be primarily driven by real private consumption. We have raised our forecast for average real GDP growth between 2026 ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Colombia
We have lowered our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Colombia by 0.1ppt to 2%. Positive momentum in activity continued in January, suggesting domestic demand was strong. However, heightened global economic uncertainty due to US tariffs and instability in the Middle East could cool investment. This comes ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belgium
We forecast Belgium's economy will expand by 1.1% this year and 1.6% in 2026 as tight monetary policy unwinds and manufacturing recovers. However, tariffs and trade uncertainty will limit growth. We expect inflation will average 2.1% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, with tariffs hindering the disinflat ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Qatar
We have raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Qatar by 0.5ppts to 2.6% and continue to expect growth will pick up to 5% in 2026. The upgrade to our near-term outlook reflects better-than-expected growth at the end of 2024 and positive activity indicators since the start of this year. Meanwhile, bu ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
We've raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Iraq to 1.2% to reflect the recalibration of our measurement scopes for Iraq's non-oil activities to better align with official data releases. Our upward revision was also driven by our better expectations for this year's oil production due t ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ukraine
Despite Donald Trump's efforts, a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine remains elusive, with Russia so far rejecting the proposed 30-day partial ceasefire by making it conditional on sanctions relief. Even if achieved, this type of ceasefire would be largely symbolic. We therefore base our Ukrai ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Uruguay
We have revised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Uruguay down by 0.1ppt to 2.4%, while maintaining our estimate for next year at 2.3%, broadly in line with consensus. We expect domestic demand to strengthen, driven by robust private consumption, supported by higher real wages. This should offset a n ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Saudi Arabia
S&P upgraded Saudi Arabia’s sovereign credit rating to A+ from A, owing to governance improvements, Vision 2030-driven non-oil sector growth, and the importance of a calibrated fiscal expansion. This aligns with our view that non-oil activities will remain the primary growth driver this year, su ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
We've raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Kuwait by 1ppt to 3.3% to reflect our more optimistic outlooks on both oil production and non-oil sector growth. OPEC+'s announcement of an earlier-than-expected unwinding schedule of oil production cuts and the recent approval of Kuwait's de ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Romania
We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Romania by 0.5ppts to 2.1%. This reflects our view that delays stemming from the presidential election re-run and a larger-than-expected deficit at the start of this year mean that the government will have to implement additional consolidation measures ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Hungary
We've nudged up our GDP growth forecasts for Hungary by 0.1ppt to 1.6% for 2025 and 3.3% for 2026. Still, we think that looming US tariffs and weak external demand will weigh on growth in the near term. But the solid pre-electoral stimulus will support activity in Hungary later this year, and th ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bulgaria
We've nudged up our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Bulgaria by 0.1ppt to 3%. Fourth-quarter data came in stronger than expected, with the economy growing by 0.9% q/q. After extensive parliamentary discussions, Bulgaria's 2025 Budget was approved on March 21. However, we think the government ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic
We have kept our GDP growth forecast for the Czech Republic unchanged at 2.3% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026. However, we will likely upgrade our outlook, particularly over the medium term, in light of the nascent German fiscal stimulus. This is expected to generate both positive and negative spillovers f ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka's economy gained 5.0% y/y in 2024, representing the strongest rebound since 2018. The services sector was the biggest contributor to 2024 growth (1.5ppts), followed by the manufacturing and construction sectors. We've maintained our 2025 GDP forecast of 3.8% y/y, but have revised d ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chile
We have revised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Chile down by 0.1ppt to 2.4% y/y, driven by a downward revision to investment amid the global uncertainty. However, we believe the impact of the international outlook will be more pronounced next year, prompting a larger reduction in our 2026 forecast ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Israel
We haven't changed our Israel forecasts this round, despite the country's defence forces resuming their military operations against Hamas. That said, we view a further weakening of the second stage of the ceasefire, which could delay an end to the war by several months, as a heightened risk ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mozambique
The Mozambican economy entered 2025 severely weakened: fiscal revenues have declined, inflation has increased, and investor confidence has dented in the wake of October's disputed general elections. The spate of violent protests and strikes caused hundreds of deaths and a sharp contraction in GD ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Indonesia
We maintain our forecast that Indonesia's GDP will grow by 5% this year, sustaining its steady growth trajectory. Although risks to growth are skewed to the downside, economic activity is likely to be supported by a more accommodative monetary policy, as inflation is expected to remain within th ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Eswatini
Eswatini's recent budget projects a wide fiscal deficit for the 2025/26 fiscal year (FY), driven by an increase in recurrent and capital spending. On the revenue side, a large decline in Southern African Customs Union (Sacu) receipts in the upcoming FY is expected to be offset by rising tax reve ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Data released this week raise the risk that Q1 GDP declines, but we attribute most of that weakness to idiosyncratic factors, as the fundamentals of the economy still appear to be sound. Tariffs will begin to take a larger toll over the next few months, but the current batch of survey data are overp ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Philippines
We forecast the Philippines' economy will expand by 6% y/y this year, following a 5.6% y/y increase in 2024, which is below the government's target of a 6%-6.5% GDP growth. Growth this year will be supported by more accommodative monetary policy and well-contained inflation. While the easing ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Switzerland
We've cut our sporting event-adjusted GDP growth forecasts for Switzerland by 0.2ppts to 1.2% in 2025 and 2026. Although current indicators are in line with our expectations, we now believe highly uncertain US tariff policy will weigh more on business investments in the coming months than initia ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific
By our estimates, China's economy is on track to expand by just under 5% y/y (or 4.8% q/q annualised) in Q1, driven by resilient retail activity and sustained manufacturing strength in January and February. ... Read More
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