Category: Service Industries
Service Industries market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Algeria
Algeria's oil output remains below historical levels due to the country’s agreement to cut oil output within the Opec+ group. The group extended cuts through Q1 due to lower-than-expected global oil demand, but it could be even longer if the group again misses its demand forecast for the year. I ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Oman
We forecast Oman's GDP growth at 2.2% for this year, higher than the 1.5% estimate for 2024. In our 2025 growth outlook, we balance the delayed return to growth in the energy sector with a steady expansion of non-energy output, which we project at 3.0% (up from 2.8% previously). We think activit ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia
We raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Croatia 0.8ppts to 2.6%. Sizeable historical revisions suggest that the economy was aggressively destocking last year. A gradual restocking process as industrial fortunes turn should support a quicker rebound than we expected. Over the next few years, GDP g ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Rwanda
Economic growth in Rwanda will likely lose momentum this year following a surprisingly better performance in 2024. We forecast real GDP to grow by 7.2% in 2025, following an estimated expansion of 8.7% last year. Below-average rainfall is predicted over H1 2025, which could diminish crop harvests wi ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Global EM
November activity data indicated economic activity in Brazil slowed significantly at the end of 2024, reinforcing our below-consensus GDP growth forecast of 1.8% for 2025. Monthly contractions in hard data indicators such as real retail sales, services revenue volumes, and industrial production sugg ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - South Africa
Economic conditions are mixed and modest positive momentum remains the order of the day. We have left South Africa's 2025 real GDP growth forecast unchanged at 1.5%, more than double the 2024 estimate of 0.7%. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
The data released this week confirmed the economy is still growing at a solid pace and inflation is gradually slowing, in line with our forecast. The big wild card remains the trade and immigration policies of the incoming administration. We will revise our February baseline to be in line with the i ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal
We've kept our GDP growth forecasts for Portugal broadly unchanged at 1.9% for 2025 and 2.1% for 2026. Surging real disposable incomes and the EU's Recovery and Resilience Facility will support growth. The economy will also benefit from its continued strong tourism activity. But as tourism g ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
We've kept our forecast for GDP growth in Turkey at a below-consensus 1.9%, although we see some upside risk given signs of slightly stronger activity at the turn of the year. The gradual slowdown in consumer spending is continuing according to credit card statistics, and we think the adjustment ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
There wasn’t much not to like in the December employment report and it increases the odds that we may have to remove the March 25bp rate cut by the Federal Reserve from the baseline. This wouldn’t significantly alter the contours of the forecast for GDP, inflation, or the labor market. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana
Ghana’s economy delivered a strong performance over the first three quarters of last year, expanding by 6.3% on a cumulative basis. Rising gold and oil production bolstered industrial activity over this period, while the ICT and financial sectors ensured robust growth in the services sector. The agr ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Estonia
We forecast GDP growth for Estonia at 2.5% for 2025. We see signs of a recovery this year, but without a swift domestic turnaround it will be weak initially. Estonia's GDP growth was positive again in Q3 2024, but was close to stagnation at 0.03%. This lack of momentum bodes poorly for growth pr ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Slovak Republic
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Slovak Republic We estimate the Slovak economy expanded by a solid 2.0% this year, above the eurozone average. But the latest data are less optimistic, with the growth structure becoming increasingly vulnerable. Consumer spending has lost momentum, fixed investme ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Lithuania
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Lithuania We forecast GDP growth for Lithuania will pick up to 3% next year, supported by a rebound in investment and expansions in the ICT sector. We think consumer spending growth will remain robust at 3% y/y despite heightened inflationary pressures. While GDP ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.6ppts to 2.0%, to reflect another extension by OPEC+ of voluntary oil production cuts. The cartel has announced it will delay unwinding cuts until at least the end of Q1, due to concerns over weak demand. We ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Italy
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Italy Italy’s industrial output contracted in the second quarter of 2024. However, we expect industrial production to experience a modest uptick of 1.4% in 2025, being mostly driven by utilities. A handful of sectors are weighing down on IP this year, particul ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Japan
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Japan We maintain our cautious outlook for 2025. We expect growth to rebound to 1.2% next year following a 0.2% contraction in 2024, but the average quarterly growth will be modest at 0.2%. Domestic demand will remain soft as weak yen will limit the households ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Uzbekistan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Uzbekistan We forecast Uzbekistan's real GDP will grow by 5.9% next year, still supported by strong fixed investment, robust domestic consumption, and expansionary fiscal policy. The subdued economies of key trading partners like Russia and China and high glo ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Colombia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Colombia We've kept our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Colombia unchanged at 2.1%. We expect growth will increase slightly from this year, boosted by flexible financial conditions and lower inflation. Private consumption will lose some momentum due to its ro ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
Analysis by Region - MENA We've kept our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Turkey unchanged at 1.9% as we expect economic momentum will remain downbeat over the near term. This follows the Q3 GDP data release, which showed an expansion of 2.1% y/y, matching our projection. The consumer adjustment rem ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Argentina
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Argentina We cut our GDP growth forecast by 0.3ppts to 3.5% for 2025 and by 0.1ppt to 3.9% for 2026. The revision is due to base effects from a better-than-expected Q3 performance in the external sector. Our forecast for next year is lower than consensus for 2025 ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Aruba
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Aruba We have upgraded our 2024 GDP growth estimate for Aruba to 5.6% and have lowered our forecast for 2025 by 0.2 ppts to 4.1%. A stronger US economy than in our previous forecast and continued infrastructure investment contributed to our 2024 revisions. Mea ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
Analysis by Region - MENA We've raised our GDP growth forecasts for Jordan to 2.4% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2025. Although the ongoing regional conflict has caused tourism income to decline by 4.3% y/y over the first nine months of this year, stronger performances in the manufacturing sector and net ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
Analysis by Region - MENA We've cut our 2024 GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppts to a 2.0% contraction, and expect a 2.6% expansion next year. Our revision reflects an extension by OPEC+ of the voluntary oil production cuts until at least January due to concerns over weak demand. We expect the cuts w ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bahamas, The
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bahamas, The We expect real GDP growth for the Bahamas will cool to 1.7% in 2025 from 2.1% this year. This fall in growth reflects the convergence of the economy towards its medium-term potential. Consistent with this view, we forecast inflation will settle at 2% ... Read More
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