Category: Service Industries
Service Industries market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Slovenia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Slovenia We've cut our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Slovenia by 0.6ppts to 1.4% due to a stagnation in H1. But we've increased our forecast for 2025 by 0.2ppts to 2.7%. We expect domestic demand will be the main growth engine, amid large real income gains ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Libya
Analysis by Region - Africa - Libya In the past quarter, conflict risk in Libya has increased markedly. A struggle for influence over the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) precipitated a crisis in mid-August, and the CBL is now split between factions that follow the instructions of the country’s two rival ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany Value-added industrial output shrunk again through the first half of 2024. Most of the positive signs cited in our last quarter’s report have either reversed or stalled out: monthly industrial production figures showed steep falls first in May and then ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo Real GDP growth in the DRC surprised to the upside last year, with the Congolese economy expanding by a formidable 8.6% during the year. Last year’s growth print was mainly fuelled by another robust performance by the country’s extractive industry. Even ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burundi
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burundi Heavy rains throughout Burundi between January and May this year have caused floods and landslides, leading to widespread displacement of people, infrastructural damage, and poor crop production. Given that over 80% of Burundians are employed in the ag ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Eurozone
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Eurozone We forecast industrial production output to contract approximately 2.1% in 2024, as it appears that the recovery is proceeding at a slower pace than expected. While headline inflation has fallen and the European Central Bank (ECB) has continued its su ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cambodia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cambodia We've kept our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Cambodia at 6.4% y/y. Cambodia will likely see some storms and floods from ongoing typhoons, but will otherwise be relatively unscathed. While real estate will likely continue to struggle, we expect the ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - China
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - China A slightly stronger-than-expected Q2 has lifted our 2024 growth forecast for industrial value-added output to 5.5%. However, the monthly data since have come in largely consistent with our previous forecast: growth has slowed from the highs of 7% y/y at ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mozambique
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mozambique Economic growth has been resilient in H1 2024, mainly reflecting expansions in hydrocarbon production and transport services. In the short term, natural gas production growth will stall due to a lack of new projects coming on stream, while widesprea ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Cyprus
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Cyprus We have raised our long-term GDP forecast for Cyprus by incorporating the impact of AI on the economy. We now estimate that GDP will be 1.3% higher by 2050, driven by higher productivity. We continue to project GDP will expand by 3% this year and 1.6% in 2 ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Eswatini
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Eswatini A robust services sector, supported by increased revenues from the Southern African Customs Union (Sacu), yielded an impressive economic growth rate of 4.8% in 2023. In 2024, another year of elevated Sacu revenues and an expansionary fiscal policy are ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Madagascar
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Madagascar High-frequency indicators suggest that economic growth in Madagascar was robust in Q2 2024. The central bank's Indicator of Business Activities (IAE) recorded a 17.2% y/y expansion in the second quarter, primarily driven by improved tertiary sec ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Comoros
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Comoros We forecast real GDP growth in the Comoros to advance to 3.3% in 2024 – a noteworthy improvement on last year's actual economic growth rate of 2.7%. Short- to medium-term economic growth is anticipated to be primarily driven by real investments and ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom Though monthly UK GDP data suggest the upturn may be faltering, recent outturns have been very noisy at a sectoral level, and we think the economy continues to carry solid momentum. So we have maintained our forecast that GDP will grow by 1.1% this year and ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ecuador
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ecuador Our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Ecuador remains at 0.9%, but we have lowered our projection for 2025 by 0.2ppts to 1.2%. Increased VAT rates and high loan interest rates have negatively affected household consumption and investment, which we expect have ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The Federal Reserve will kick off its rate-cutting cycle at next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, with the only outstanding question being whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps. We think the data only justifies a 25bp cut. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Latvia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Latvia We've cut our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Latvia by 1.2ppts to just 0.6% since our last update in June. We attribute our downward revision primarily to a large growth disappointment in Q2, when the economy shrank by 1.1% q/q, posting the largest contr ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Oman
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Oman We've trimmed our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Oman by 0.1ppt to 1.5% as curbs on oil production continue. We still expect output will be hiked gradually, helping GDP growth to pick up to 2.3% next year. We maintain our 2024 forecast of 2.4% growth in th ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Senegal
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Senegal The Senegalese economy's slow start to the year prompted us to cut our 2024 real GDP growth forecast to 6.5% from our previous estimate of 7.9%. The delayed extraction of benefits from the nascent hydrocarbon industry means that the twin fiscal and ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Guinea
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Guinea Real GDP growth came in above our expectations at 7.1% in 2023, largely driven by robust growth in total fixed investment. We now project the Guinean economy to grow by 5.4% this year, higher than our previous estimate of 4.6%. Given the better-than-exp ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Bahrain
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Bahrain Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2024, increasing by 2.5%, before easing to 1.3% growth in 2025. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Argentina
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Argentina Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2024, falling by 7.7%, picking up to 6.2% growth in 2025. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific We've cut our 2024 GDP growth forecast for New Zealand to just 0.6% from 1.0% to reflect the sustained weakness in GDP growth in H1. Weakness in demand contributed to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision to kick off its cutting cycle in August. We expe ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mali
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mali Mali's real GDP growth stood at 4.7% in 2023, lower than our previous estimate of 5.2%. We expect growth to remain broadly stable at 4.6% this year. According to the landlocked nation's mining ministry, industrial gold production is projected to s ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kazakhstan
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kazakhstan We've left our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Kazakhstan unchanged at 3.9% and bumped up our 2025 forecast to 5.4% from 4.9%. While the planned expansion at the Tengiz oil field should boost growth next year, the main reason for the upgrade is the ... Read More
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