Category: Service Industries
Service Industries market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom Business survey data suggests that UK activity has continued to grow at a solid pace in Q3. The composite PMI is running at a similar level to H1 2024, though the patchy relationship with official output data suggests we shouldn't take these results too ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The July Federal Open Market Committee minutes and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole provided another clear signal that the Fed will cut rates in September. We think it would take a large, negative surprise in the labor market data between ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Prolonged monetary policy hawkishness presents a significant risk to demand growth across emerging markets (EMs). In the short run, central banks can justify tight policies as progress on disinflation has slowed and because of heightened financial market v ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sudan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sudan The ceaseless war in Sudan is forecast to trigger the country's seventh consecutive annual economic contraction this year. After about 16 months of war, global governments released condemnation statements and sanctioned individuals and companies related ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Since the release of the July employment report, financial markets have been focused on the labor market and the implications for Federal Reserve policy, but the other side of the central bank's dual mandate will come back into view during the week ahead. Some of th ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Our aggregate 2024 GDP growth forecast for emerging markets (EMs) is unchanged at 4%, but we have nudged down our projection for 2025 by 0.1ppt to 3.9% as external headwinds are mounting. Real activity indicators suggest a sof ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom This week has seen substantial volatility in global financial markets, but we think the implications for the UK economy are limited. The UK sell-off has been relatively modest. We also think there's a good chance that equity prices will recover because f ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Lithuania
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Lithuania In line with our expectations, real GDP grew by almost 3% y/y in Q1 – Lithuania's strongest quarterly performance in two years – underpinned by a continued robust recovery in private demand and a strong investment performance. Improving sentiment in ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ukraine
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ukraine The severe energy shortages and the intensifying war, accompanied by a new wave of mobilisation, have dampened Ukraine's economic recovery to only 1.1% y/y of GDP growth in June, from 3.7% y/y in May. But due to stronger growth in Q1, GDP reached a de ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Hong Kong SAR
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Hong Kong SAR A strong export-led start to the year led us to revise up our 2024 forecast for Hong Kong's growth to 3.6%. In 2025, while we've pencilled in sequential moderation in growth, favourable base effects will push y/y growth to 4.1%. This is cons ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom The first business surveys of Q3 provided more evidence that the UK economic recovery has now taken root. While it's still early days, our forecast that q/q GDP growth is likely to remain solid in Q3, albeit slightly slower than in Q2, remains on track. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Governments' reputations for meeting fiscal projections have recovered significantly since the bashing they took during the Covid period, according to our scorecard based on the misses from fiscal ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The lull in the economy during the first three months of the year proved to be temporary. The reacceleration in GDP growth in Q2 should help temper concerns about the durability of the expansion and quiet chatter that the Federal Reserve needs to cut inte ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - North Korea
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - North Korea We estimate that North Korea GDP in 2023 turned positive for the first time in three years, thanks to a sudden increase in ammunition sales to Russia and non-state armed actors. That said, we still expect North Korea's economic outlook to remain c ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom UK GDP growth beat expectations again in May, meaning output remains on track for another quarter of solid growth in Q2. This adds to the evidence that the economy has now firmly turned a corner and supports our above-consensus forecast for GDP growth in 202 ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets We expect the recent fiscal concerns that drove a sell-off in Brazilian assets will be temporary and interest rates to have peaked. We find that, although fiscal sentiment has worsened during the last few months ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom The Bank of England's Financial Stability Report echoed our warnings that the impact of tighter monetary policy is still to fully pass through to households. The increase in debt servicing costs should be manageable for most, but there's a long tail ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Even though economic growth in Q2 is tracking below our expectations, we still think the core of the economy is healthy and we anticipate growth will remain close to 2% over the rest of this year. The labor market is resilient, and with inflation pressures easing again, ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Headline inflation in most of the ASEAN-6 (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam) is tracking higher this year. However, we still expect full-year figures for inflation in 2024 will be softer than in 2023, except in Vietnam ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Iran
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Iran Despite a significant increase in crude oil output in 2023, Iran’s GDP growth is expected to slow in 2024 due to reduced oil exports and fixed investment. Growth is projected to slow in FY2024 to 2.9%, hindered by tighter sanctions affecting oil productio ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Italy
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Italy As estimated last quarter, Italy’s industrial output in Q4 has gone from bad to worse. The country’s output fell by 0.4% in the final quarter of 2023, the third consecutive fall in output. While manufacturing did grow in 2023’s last quarter, industrial p ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Canada
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Canada Canada’s industrial production for Q4 of 2023 expanded by approximately 0.4%. However, overall industrial production contracted by approximately 0.6% in 2023. Our outlook for 2024 is slightly more positive, with output in the sector expected to expand b ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United States
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United States US industrial production growth has been revised up to grow 2.1% in 2024, and gradually cool down in 2025 with 1.5% growth. We expect to see positive sequential quarter-on-quarter growth every quarter this year except for Q4. We continue to belie ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Japan
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Japan The industrial production outlook in 2024 for Japan remains poor, with output forecast to contract by 1.2% in 2024, a 1.4ppt downwards revision from our previous forecast. This reflects sluggish domestic demand, particularly in consumption, which was var ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Australia
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Australia Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2024, increasing by 0.3%, picking up to 1% growth in 2025. ... Read More
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