Category: Service Industries
Service Industries market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US Treasury yields were higher this week, led by 20bps increases in seven- and 10-year yields as of early Friday afternoon. Bearish technicals, asset manager positioning, and rising Fed rate hike expectations pushed rates higher overall. The curve steepened, thou ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Barbados
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Barbados We think the Barbados economy will expand by 4.8% this year, following 9.1% growth in 2022. GDP will likely return to its pre-pandemic level by Q4 2023, driven by a solid but slow tourism recovery. We forecast tourist arrivals will grow by 27% in 2023 ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Macedonia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Macedonia We now forecast North Macedonia's GDP will grow by just 1.3% in 2023. Economic activity is being held back by the sharp rise in interest rates and slower export growth. But the resilience of investment, which supported growth of 2.2% in 2022, wil ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brunei
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brunei After contracting 1.6% in 2022, Brunei's economy is expected to expand by 3.3% in 2023 and 3.2% in 2024 due to higher investment spending, bringing GDP back to its pre-pandemic level. Investment will focus on the expansion of petrochemical plants, r ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Turkmenistan
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Turkmenistan We have raised our 2023 GDP growth forecast for Turkmenistan by 1.1ppts to 3% to reflect our expectation that stronger Chinese import demand in the near term will support economic activity. Revisions to national accounts data also show the hit to ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Puerto Rico
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Puerto Rico We've raised our 2023 GDP forecast for Puerto Rico by 0.5ppts to a 0.8% contraction, but have lowered our outlook for 2024 by 1.1ppts to 1.2% growth. Consumer spending and infrastructure projects, backed by federal funds, helped propel Puerto R ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Suriname
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Suriname We have lowered our 2023 GDP growth forecast for Suriname by 0.3ppts to 0.9% because ongoing high inflation, anti-austerity protests, and a weaker global economy will depress real incomes. We now expect recent oil discoveries to contribute to GDP in 2 ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kyrgyzstan
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kyrgyzstan We expect Kyrgyzstan's GDP to grow by 6% in 2023, slowing to 2.6% in 2024. The economy performed better than we expected last year, resulting in a positive carry-over effect and raising our 2023 outlook up by 1.7ppts accordingly. But we think qu ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA - Morocco
Analysis by Region - MENA - Morocco The Moroccan economy entered recessionary territory in Q1 2023, as some key sectors took strain amid rising costs and tightening financial conditions. Although agricultural sector growth moved into positive territory in the first quarter of the year and the recove ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Reunion
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Reunion We still expect Reunion's GDP to grow by 1.2% this year even though we forecast sticky food and manufactured goods inflation and sluggish growth prospects in mainland France. Despite relatively high inflation and poorer business sentiment surveys for ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Trinidad and Tobago
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Trinidad and Tobago We expect GDP growth in Trinidad and Tobago to ease to 1.6% in 2023 and 1% in 2024, following the post-coronavirus pandemic 9.4% rebound in 2022. Slower growth can be attributed to a less supportive economic environment with persistent infl ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Papua New Guinea
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Papua New Guinea Papua New Guinea's (PNG) GDP growth is forecast to slow to 3.5% in 2023 from 4.5% in 2022 due to falling commodity prices, high inflation, tighter monetary policy, and slower global growth. Growth is expected to pick-up slightly to 4% in 2024 ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Uganda
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Uganda The latest GDP print confirms that the Ugandan economy grew by 6.3% last year. There was a clear slowdown in economic activity in Q4 2022, with the industrial sector recording an annual contraction, but the resilience of the services sector surprised. W ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Bosnia and Herzegovina
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Bosnia and Herzegovina We have lowered our GDP growth forecasts for Bosnia and Herzegovina by 0.1ppt to 1.1% y/y in 2023 and by 1.3ppts to 3.2% y/y in 2024, reflecting an upside surprise to 2022 GDP and weakness in the eurozone. Both exports to and remittances ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Aruba
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Aruba We have raised our 2023 GDP forecast for Aruba by 4.7ppts to a 0.1% y/y decline as we believe tourism will continue to recover. That said, we expect the economy to contract this year because inflation will erase some of the nominal gains in consumption a ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Haiti
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Haiti We have raised our 2023 GDP forecast for Haiti by 1.9ppts to a 2.4% contraction to reflect progress on structural reforms aimed at ending the political and social crisis. We expect Haiti's economy to be dragged down by private consumption and investm ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom The UK labour market release for Q1 reported a slightly higher outturn for unemployment than the BoE's forecast, while wage growth was in line with expectations. Given the MPC has said that further rate hikes would be dependent on key data surprising on ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Four months into the reopening, China's economic recovery can be best described as uneven, frontloaded and still necessarily state-supported. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The economy is still on sound ground, with consumers willing to spend and businesses continuing to hire and invest despite fears that a recession is around the corner. We maintain our call for a mild recession to begin in Q3 but see a risk that it might start later. Con ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US The front-end through the belly of the curve led Treasury yields higher this past week as traders began to unwind rate cut bets for later this year. Two- through five-year yields were more than 25bps higher on the week as of early Friday afternoon. That is the ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Côte d'Ivoire
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Côte d'Ivoire Real GDP growth of 6.8% was recorded in Côte d’Ivoire last year – a commendable performance considering the tremendous headwinds that the economy faced. Price pressures stemming from the war in Eastern Europe weighed severely on real consume ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US Treasury yields were mostly little changed this week, although front-end yields rose around 5bps, resulting in a slightly flatter curve. Stocks suffered small losses overall, even as the Nasdaq Bank Index and the KBW Bank Index were down more than 4% as of mid ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom Another rise in UK Bank Rate at May's meeting had long appeared to be a done deal, so the real interest was in what clues the MPC would offer about future policy moves. While the committee left the door open to raising rates further, we think May's h ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The April inflation figures released this week provided support for the Fed pausing rate hikes as it confirms rents are now rising at a slower pace than earlier in the year and services inflation excluding shelter - aka "supercore" inflation - eased. Together ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets We have nudged up our 2023 GDP growth forecast for emerging markets by 0.3ppts to 3.7% y/y, on par with the result in 2022. This improvement primarily reflects the upgraded projection for China following a strong Q1. Risks to our 2024 EM growth forecast of ... Read More
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