Category: Service Industries
Service Industries market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The new data on inflation will not change the Fed’s immediate plan or its communication strategy as it will continue to signal that it has not won the inflation battle yet. The Fed will strike a hawkish tone because it wants to prevent ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US Treasury yields finished the week several bps higher, with the front- and intermediate sector seeing the largest back-up in rates. The 2s10s curve was little changed on the week, but a spike in five-year note yields pushed the 5s30s spread back into inversion ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets We have cut our aggregate 2023 GDP growth forecast for emerging markets (EMs) by 0.1ppt to 3.9%, following a series of upgrades in recent months. This mainly reflects a downgrade to our outlook for China, which offset several improvements elsewhere. That s ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Rwanda
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Rwanda The Rwandan economy performed slightly weaker than anticipated in Q1 2023. This year we expect a tightening in purse strings, both by households and the government, as the substantial rise in prices and higher borrowing costs permeate the economy. In ad ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Economic 'decoupling' of China from the west is starting to gather pace. Decoupling is yet to become globally widespread on the trade side but is increasingly evident in relations with the US. FDI trends and surveys of Western firms ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom This week's UK business surveys suggested that activity is beginning to falter across a range of sectors. Though GDP will be boosted in Q3 by the reversal of recent idiosyncratic drags, the surveys raise the risk that the rise in output could underwhelm ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US While the large base effects that helped pull down headline CPI inflation to 3% in June are behind us, a downshift in shelter inflation, falling auto prices, and a gradual easing in wage growth should mean better news for core inflation through the second half of the ye ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets We have raised our 2023 GDP growth forecast for EMs by 0.1ppt to 4% to reflect ongoing resilience in activity, particularly in Latin America. That said, survey-based indicators show economic momentum is weakening and we think EM growth will slow in the com ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The labor market remains exceptionally tight. Nonfarm payroll growth downshifted in June but held above its average pre-pandemic pace. The unemployment rate inched down to a historically low level and wage growth was stubbornly elevated. We expect more job gains in Q3 b ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom UK financial conditions have continued to tighten, with market pricing now implying that Bank Rate will peak at 6.5%. Though this will probably prove a bit too aggressive, with incoming data continuing to suggest that wage growth is very strong, a lengthy pe ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US Treasury yields were higher this week, led by 20bps increases in seven- and 10-year yields as of early Friday afternoon. Bearish technicals, asset manager positioning, and rising Fed rate hike expectations pushed rates higher overall. The curve steepened, thou ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Barbados
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Barbados We think the Barbados economy will expand by 4.8% this year, following 9.1% growth in 2022. GDP will likely return to its pre-pandemic level by Q4 2023, driven by a solid but slow tourism recovery. We forecast tourist arrivals will grow by 27% in 2023 ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Macedonia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Macedonia We now forecast North Macedonia's GDP will grow by just 1.3% in 2023. Economic activity is being held back by the sharp rise in interest rates and slower export growth. But the resilience of investment, which supported growth of 2.2% in 2022, wil ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brunei
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brunei After contracting 1.6% in 2022, Brunei's economy is expected to expand by 3.3% in 2023 and 3.2% in 2024 due to higher investment spending, bringing GDP back to its pre-pandemic level. Investment will focus on the expansion of petrochemical plants, r ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Turkmenistan
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Turkmenistan We have raised our 2023 GDP growth forecast for Turkmenistan by 1.1ppts to 3% to reflect our expectation that stronger Chinese import demand in the near term will support economic activity. Revisions to national accounts data also show the hit to ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Puerto Rico
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Puerto Rico We've raised our 2023 GDP forecast for Puerto Rico by 0.5ppts to a 0.8% contraction, but have lowered our outlook for 2024 by 1.1ppts to 1.2% growth. Consumer spending and infrastructure projects, backed by federal funds, helped propel Puerto R ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Suriname
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Suriname We have lowered our 2023 GDP growth forecast for Suriname by 0.3ppts to 0.9% because ongoing high inflation, anti-austerity protests, and a weaker global economy will depress real incomes. We now expect recent oil discoveries to contribute to GDP in 2 ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kyrgyzstan
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kyrgyzstan We expect Kyrgyzstan's GDP to grow by 6% in 2023, slowing to 2.6% in 2024. The economy performed better than we expected last year, resulting in a positive carry-over effect and raising our 2023 outlook up by 1.7ppts accordingly. But we think qu ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA - Morocco
Analysis by Region - MENA - Morocco The Moroccan economy entered recessionary territory in Q1 2023, as some key sectors took strain amid rising costs and tightening financial conditions. Although agricultural sector growth moved into positive territory in the first quarter of the year and the recove ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Trinidad and Tobago
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Trinidad and Tobago We expect GDP growth in Trinidad and Tobago to ease to 1.6% in 2023 and 1% in 2024, following the post-coronavirus pandemic 9.4% rebound in 2022. Slower growth can be attributed to a less supportive economic environment with persistent infl ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Uganda
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Uganda The latest GDP print confirms that the Ugandan economy grew by 6.3% last year. There was a clear slowdown in economic activity in Q4 2022, with the industrial sector recording an annual contraction, but the resilience of the services sector surprised. W ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Bosnia and Herzegovina
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Bosnia and Herzegovina We have lowered our GDP growth forecasts for Bosnia and Herzegovina by 0.1ppt to 1.1% y/y in 2023 and by 1.3ppts to 3.2% y/y in 2024, reflecting an upside surprise to 2022 GDP and weakness in the eurozone. Both exports to and remittances ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Haiti
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Haiti We have raised our 2023 GDP forecast for Haiti by 1.9ppts to a 2.4% contraction to reflect progress on structural reforms aimed at ending the political and social crisis. We expect Haiti's economy to be dragged down by private consumption and investm ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom The UK labour market release for Q1 reported a slightly higher outturn for unemployment than the BoE's forecast, while wage growth was in line with expectations. Given the MPC has said that further rate hikes would be dependent on key data surprising on ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Four months into the reopening, China's economic recovery can be best described as uneven, frontloaded and still necessarily state-supported. ... Read More
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