Category: Service Industries
Service Industries market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom A hawkish speech from Huw Pill emphasised that May's MPC meeting is very much live. Pill talked about needing to "see the job through", suggesting he's swaying towards voting for another 25bps hike, though he also emphasised there was alrea ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Saudi Arabia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Saudi Arabia We expect Saudi Arabia's economy will grow 1.6% in 2023 given a weaker global environment and oil output cuts. Revised official figures show the economy expanded 8.7% in 2022, with 15.4% in oil activity, 5.4% in non-oil growth, and 2.6% in govern ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Latvia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Latvia We have boosted our 2023 GDP growth forecast by 0.6ppts to 0.5% as unexpectedly low winter energy import costs, allowing more resilient domestic demand, has averted the risk of further GDP declines. But industrial output is still set to fall sharply due to ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Seychelles
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Seychelles Real GDP is estimated to have grown by a strong 10.1% in 2022, with the size of the economy reaching pre-coronavirus pandemic levels. The island nation's tourist arrivals have started to pick up, but are yet to reach pre-pandemic levels. Thankfu ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Financial markets continued to stabilize this week amid easing concerns about the banking sector. The Fed's balance sheet data also offered signs of stability as loans to banks declined overall. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US The front-end of the curve led a large rise in Treasury yields this past week as the banking sector finally found its footing. That led to an unwinding of a portion of this month's large bull steepening flows as traders pared Fed rate cut expectations. Equ ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Argentina
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Argentina Argentina's economy grew 0.3% m/m in January, according to the monthly GDP indicator (EMAE). This modest expansion breaks a streak of four consecutive monthly declines in activity since September last year. However, we still expect the economy to ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq Despite a decrease in oil output in Q1 2023, we've maintained our 2023 GDP growth forecast at 4.3%. This is because Iraq is seeking to expand its oil opportunities through offering production and exploration licenses in H2 2023. So far, it's kept its ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Once pent-up demand from post-lockdown fades, we think that Asian economies will settle at lower GDP growth and higher inflation than our pre-pandemic forecasts. This means nominal interest rates are also likely to stay high in 2023-2024. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Bolivia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Bolivia We've cut our 2023 GDP forecast by 0.5ppts to 2.1% for Bolivia. Last year's sources of growth are fading as it was backed by new public investment projects and a surge in hydrocarbon's exports to Argentina. Additionally, private consumption ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Once pent-up demand from post-lockdown fades, we think that Asian economies will settle at lower GDP growth and higher inflation than our pre-pandemic forecasts. This means nominal interest rates are also likely to stay high in 2023-2024. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Jordan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Jordan We have slightly downgraded our forecast for GDP growth from 2.5% to 2.3% for 2023. The country has made solid progress in implementing the structural reforms suggested by the IMF. Activity has increased via higher tourism and exports revenues carried over ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Uruguay
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Uruguay We've cut our Uruguay 2023 GDP forecast to 0.7% from 1.8%, mainly due to carryover from the sharp contraction at the end of last year. Hurt by the ongoing drought, primary activity plunged to -21.5% y/y in Q4 2022, tipping the economy into a techni ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom The BoE raised Bank Rate by 25bps to 4.25% this week. With so much monetary tightening already in the system, but still to feed through into activity or inflation, we think Bank Rate has now peaked. However, the risk of a May rate hike has risen. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Vietnam
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Vietnam We have upgraded Vietnam's 2023 GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppts to 4.2% from three months ago. Our revision mainly reflects an anticipated rebound in Vietnam's tourism sector following China ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecast - Nigeria
Country Economic Forecast - Nigeria Nigeria has regained the title of 'Africa's largest oil producer' thanks to recovering oil production towards the end of last year. Output rose by 7.0% m/m to an average of 1.23 million barrels per day (bpd) in December due to successful efforts to rep ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa
Analysis by Region - Africa Fixed investment related to phase II of the Lesotho Highlands Water Project is forecast to counterweigh weak household expenditure and substantial external trade pressures this year. Nevertheless, our baseline scenario foresees the expansion in national output softening t ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The December employment report didn't paint a picture of Goldilocks labor market, but the modest slowdown in job growth and easing of wage pressures was surely welcomed by the Fed. The report won't keep the Fed from raising rates by 25bps at its upcoming meeting ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak unveiled three economic pledges this week. An odd collection ranged from the relatively easy to achieve to being so vague that success will be difficult to judge objectively. It's hard to argue the pledges are economically m ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US It has been a strong start to the new year for Treasuries, with 7 and 10-year yields down more than 30bps on the week as of early Friday afternoon, leading the gains. Declining inflation expectations offered support to the long-end, flattening the curve for mu ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Although China's sooner-than-expected reopening has led some to pencil in a more robust rebound in 2023, we remain cautious given that the authorities may amplified the disruptions associated with reopening. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The "bomb cyclone" that swept across the US this week will only shave at most a few basis points off Q4-22 GDP growth and doesn't necessitate any major changes to our baseline forecast. Some industries will be disrupted, but the shock's short, temporar ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets We expect Central and Eastern Europe will start 2023 in a synchronised economic downturn, in concert with the rest of the EU. While the region should emerge from recession in Q2, the recovery will be uneven across the four economies. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US We now see Slovenia's GDP growing 1% in 2023, down 0.3ppts from previously, as headwinds to growth mount. Q3 GDP fell 1.4% q/q, due to negative change in inventories, while all other components held up. That said, we see the weakness becoming more broad-based, with ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United States
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United States US industrial growth has slowed in the face of high inflation, slowing export growth, declining inventories, and shifting consumer preferences towards services. Q2 GDP fell by -0.6%%, dragged by declining residential investment, declining constru ... Read More
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