Category: Service Industries
Service Industries market research reports by Oxford Economics
-
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Romania
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Romania Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2023, falling by 4.4%, picking up to 2.7% growth in 2024. ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom The impact of higher interest rates on the UK housing market remained apparent in the latest data on mortgage lending. Though mortgage approvals picked up a little from recent lows, a sustained rebound in housing activity looks unlikely given mortgage afford ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Emerging market (EM) economic growth exceeded our expectations this year, but the cross-country pattern of GDP upside surprises appears uncorrelated with the historic sensitivity to the US economic cycle. EM growth will slow in 2024 as the global backdrop ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific We forecast Papua New Guinea's (PNG) GDP will expand by 6.7% in 2023, a 3.2ppts increase from our previous forecast. Growth will remain strong at 5.8% in 2024, before gradually declining to more stable levels in subsequent years. ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Europe
Analysis by Region - Europe We've raised our GDP growth forecasts for Turkmenistan by 0.1ppt to 3.1% y/y in 2023 and by 0.5ppts to 2.7% y/y in 2024, as we expect energy prices to rise due to an intensifying Israel-Hamas conflict. ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Lao PDR
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Lao PDR We have postponed our projection for the beginning of Laos's GDP recovery to Q1 2024 and have therefore revised our 2024 GDP growth forecast to 4.6% y/y. Our updated forecast reflects lower household real income due to elevated inflation that is be ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets In our latest monthly forecast, we raised our aggregate 2023 GDP growth forecast for emerging markets (EMs) by 0.1ppt to 4.1%. We raised our 2023 GDP growth forecast for China by 0.1ppt to 5.2% after a slight outperformance in Q3, consistent ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Afghanistan
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Afghanistan We've lowered our 2023 GDP growth forecast for Afghanistan to 1.4% from 1.6% previously, following an 11.8% contraction in 2022. The downgrade reflects the three earthquakes that occurred within a week in mid-October and the Taliban's rule ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Venezuela
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Venezuela We've raised our assumptions for Venezuelan's 2023 GDP growth to 1.6%, up from 0.8% six months ago. This follows a stunning 12.4% expansion in 2022. Short-term growth momentum has been heavily supported by the oil sector, as output is estimated ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Canada
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Canada Consumers and businesses are starting to yield to higher interest rates, and their full impact is building. The Canadian economy already slipped into a technical recession in Q2 and Q3 2023 according to preliminary GDP estimates by StatCan. We anticipate s ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Africa
Analysis by Region - Africa Momentum in economic activity in Uganda remained robust during Q2 2023, mainly supported by the services and industry sectors of the economy. Available data indicates that growth started on a high note in Q3 2023, driven by improvements in exports, loan advancements to th ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Latin America - Grenada
Analysis by Region - Latin America - Grenada We have raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Grenada by 0.3ppts to 4.3%, as supply chain and tourism conditions within the economy have returned to pre-pandemic levels. But we think the pace of economic growth will slow next year from a projected growt ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Azerbaijan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Azerbaijan We estimate Azerbaijan's growth rate will slow to 0.9% this year from 4.8% in 2022. The primary reason is the drop in oil production, which was down 8% y/y in H1 and was only partially offset by a 3% increase in gas production. We expect growth of ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Georgia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Georgia Georgia's economy performed strongly in H1, prompting us to raise our 2023 GDP growth forecast to 6.8% from 3.6% previously. We expect growth to moderate in 2024 but remain solid at 4.1%, modestly down from our previous forecast of 4.4%. Solid fore ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets We project the distribution of long-term economic pain inflicted by Covid will be similar to humans in the sense that those with pre-existing conditions will end up suffering the most. ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom Changes to the measurement of UK jobs numbers have made reading the economy harder. New experimental data from the ONS suggest the labour market did not weaken as much over the summer as previously thought. But with like-for-like comparisons with earlier per ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom Though output was boosted in August by less disruption from public sector strikes, UK GDP is on course to be flat or, more likely, fall slightly in Q3. The bigger picture is that the brief rebound in activity that we saw at the start of the year has since pe ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The economy has been resilient in 2023, but we expect growth to lose momentum in the year's closing quarter as higher interest rates and tighter lending conditions weigh on activity. Impacts of a possible government shutdown and a prolonged United Auto Workers strik ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom Large revisions to national accounts data suggest that the UK's post-pandemic recovery was better than previously thought, with a much stronger contribution from the services sector. An upgrade to Q1 2023 is likely to mean that we nudge up our forecast f ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Pakistan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Pakistan We have revised our GDP growth forecast for Pakistan next year down to just 0.6% as the ongoing crisis takes a toll on the economy. ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom The latest UK economic data present the MPC with a quandary in advance of next week's interest rate decision. The previous resilience of the labour market appears to be steadily eroding and there's been more evidence of waning economic momentum. ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom This week's business surveys suggest that the UK economy is continuing to lose momentum, with the composite PMI's sharp fall into contractionary territory particularly concerning. Though there's a good chance that GDP will still increase in Q3 du ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Argentina's leading presidential candidate Javier Milei wants to dollarize to fight inflation. But we think adopting the dollar would likely push Argentina straight into a default. ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US Treasury yields were mixed this week as the curve flattened, pivoting around the seven- to 10-year sector. The two-year yield was more than 11bps higher as of mid-Friday afternoon, and the 30-year bond yield was 10bps lower, resulting in the largest weekly cur ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Fed Chair Jerome Powell deliberately avoided breaking much new ground in his Jackson Hole speech this week, but he suggested that the Fed would need to see above-trend GDP growth or labor markets no longer cooling to justify additional rate hikes. Our view is that the e ... Read More
Research Assistance
