Category: Service Industries
Service Industries market research reports by Oxford Economics
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The economy is still on sound ground, with consumers willing to spend and businesses continuing to hire and invest despite fears that a recession is around the corner. We maintain our call for a mild recession to begin in Q3 but see a risk that it might start later. Con ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US The front-end through the belly of the curve led Treasury yields higher this past week as traders began to unwind rate cut bets for later this year. Two- through five-year yields were more than 25bps higher on the week as of early Friday afternoon. That is the ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Côte d'Ivoire
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Côte d'Ivoire Real GDP growth of 6.8% was recorded in Côte d’Ivoire last year – a commendable performance considering the tremendous headwinds that the economy faced. Price pressures stemming from the war in Eastern Europe weighed severely on real consume ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US Treasury yields were mostly little changed this week, although front-end yields rose around 5bps, resulting in a slightly flatter curve. Stocks suffered small losses overall, even as the Nasdaq Bank Index and the KBW Bank Index were down more than 4% as of mid ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom Another rise in UK Bank Rate at May's meeting had long appeared to be a done deal, so the real interest was in what clues the MPC would offer about future policy moves. While the committee left the door open to raising rates further, we think May's h ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The April inflation figures released this week provided support for the Fed pausing rate hikes as it confirms rents are now rising at a slower pace than earlier in the year and services inflation excluding shelter - aka "supercore" inflation - eased. Together ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets We have nudged up our 2023 GDP growth forecast for emerging markets by 0.3ppts to 3.7% y/y, on par with the result in 2022. This improvement primarily reflects the upgraded projection for China following a strong Q1. Risks to our 2024 EM growth forecast of ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The April employment report underscores that even though the Fed signaled a pause, further increases can't be ruled out if trend job and wage growth don't moderate along with inflation. We think the FOMC will be somewhat patient, however, and are still comfortab ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom If there was ever any doubt that the MPC would raise Bank Rate at next week's meeting, this week's UK data quickly dispelled it. Further evidence of strengthening activity – particularly in consumer-facing sectors – and inflation persistence mean the ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Unlike their AE counterparts, most EMs are seeing healthy credit grow rates and are not affected by the credit trends in AEs; providing some encouragement that EMs may yet contribute to a global soft landing. ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US Changes in Treasury yields were mixed this week as the curve steepened. The two-year yield was close to 10bps lower as of mid-Friday afternoon, and the 30-year yield was close to 10bps higher as the curve pivoted around the seven- to 10-year sector. The dollar ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom The UK economy stagnated in February, disappointing expectations. But continued strike action played a likely temporary role in the weak performance, and upward revisions to earlier data means GDP probably still rose modestly in Q1. ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Incoming data signal the economy ended the first quarter on a weak note, with consumers less willing to spend, labor market conditions softening, and industrial sector output on a negative track. We believe Q1 will end up being the best quarter this year for the economy ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal We have raised our 2023 GDP growth forecast for Portugal by 0.2ppts to 1.1% to incorporate support from a new package of fiscal measures and signs that the economy started this year on a stronger-than-expected footing. But recent global banking sector wo ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany German industry and construction had a better-than-expected start to the year. And while we expect to see some reversal in that strength, the economy is likely to avoid a technical recession, leading us to raise our 2023 GDP forecast to 0.3% growth (up 0. ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States Recent stress in the banking system and tighter lending standards will result in a more severe, but still mild, recession in H2 2023 than we previously anticipated. Though banking stress has eased, the economic costs will be incurred with a lag, and ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Comoros
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Comoros The Comoran economy is set to uphold its modest growth thanks to strong real private consumption, even though the import bill will remain under pressure due to high import prices. Real GDP growth is expected to reach 3.1% in 2023. We anticipate that th ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Pakistan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Pakistan Our Pakistan GDP forecast for FY2023 stands at 2.7% as record-high inflation, food shortages, and a slowdown in industrial output pound the economy. Recent waves of terrorist attacks are adding to the impact of inflation and the food crisis, but the form ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets We've raised our 2023 GDP growth forecast for EMs by 0.2ppts to 3.4%. But we've lowered our 2024 projection by 0.4ppts to 3.9%, primarily due to our revised China outlook. The bank stresses in some advanced economies haven't meaningfully impact ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - South Africa
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - South Africa We forecast weak economic growth for South Africa in 2023, amid numerous domestic challenges, chief of which is loadshedding, and global economic headwinds. The incessant power outages are weighing on economic activity and exacerbating price press ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chile
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chile We continue to expect Chile's economy will contract by 1% y/y in 2023. Tighter monetary policy conditions will be one of the driving factors behind the recession we expect to last until Q3 this year. Indeed, the February monthly GDP proxy (IMACEC) fe ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - South Korea
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - South Korea We've downgraded our 2024 GDP growth forecast by 0.7ppts to 2.1% to reflect a more gradual global recovery and maintained our below-consensus 2023 growth forecast at 0.5%. We think South Korea will narrowly avoid a technical recession, but exports ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mexico
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mexico We continue to raise our 2023 GDP growth outlook for Mexico to reflect strong domestic momentum. We now see stronger activity in H1 and have raised our 2023 growth forecast by 0.4ppts to 1.5%, broadly in line with the consensus. However, risks of a slow ... Read More
-
Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts
Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts Crude oil prices surged on news that OPEC+ would cut production by over 1mn b/d beginning in May. The supply response from elsewhere will be limited and not enough to offset the reduction. At the same time, our demand outlook is broadl ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone We have raised our 2023 eurozone GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppts to 0.8%. However, we've cut our outlook for 2024 by 0.3ppts to 1% growth as a consequence of the lagged impact from tighter financing conditions. Our base case remains that the eurozone ... Read More
Research Assistance
