Category: Service Industries
Service Industries market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The April employment report underscores that even though the Fed signaled a pause, further increases can't be ruled out if trend job and wage growth don't moderate along with inflation. We think the FOMC will be somewhat patient, however, and are still comfortab ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom If there was ever any doubt that the MPC would raise Bank Rate at next week's meeting, this week's UK data quickly dispelled it. Further evidence of strengthening activity – particularly in consumer-facing sectors – and inflation persistence mean the ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Unlike their AE counterparts, most EMs are seeing healthy credit grow rates and are not affected by the credit trends in AEs; providing some encouragement that EMs may yet contribute to a global soft landing. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US Changes in Treasury yields were mixed this week as the curve steepened. The two-year yield was close to 10bps lower as of mid-Friday afternoon, and the 30-year yield was close to 10bps higher as the curve pivoted around the seven- to 10-year sector. The dollar ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom The UK economy stagnated in February, disappointing expectations. But continued strike action played a likely temporary role in the weak performance, and upward revisions to earlier data means GDP probably still rose modestly in Q1. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Incoming data signal the economy ended the first quarter on a weak note, with consumers less willing to spend, labor market conditions softening, and industrial sector output on a negative track. We believe Q1 will end up being the best quarter this year for the economy ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal We have raised our 2023 GDP growth forecast for Portugal by 0.2ppts to 1.1% to incorporate support from a new package of fiscal measures and signs that the economy started this year on a stronger-than-expected footing. But recent global banking sector wo ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany German industry and construction had a better-than-expected start to the year. And while we expect to see some reversal in that strength, the economy is likely to avoid a technical recession, leading us to raise our 2023 GDP forecast to 0.3% growth (up 0. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States Recent stress in the banking system and tighter lending standards will result in a more severe, but still mild, recession in H2 2023 than we previously anticipated. Though banking stress has eased, the economic costs will be incurred with a lag, and ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Comoros
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Comoros The Comoran economy is set to uphold its modest growth thanks to strong real private consumption, even though the import bill will remain under pressure due to high import prices. Real GDP growth is expected to reach 3.1% in 2023. We anticipate that th ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Pakistan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Pakistan Our Pakistan GDP forecast for FY2023 stands at 2.7% as record-high inflation, food shortages, and a slowdown in industrial output pound the economy. Recent waves of terrorist attacks are adding to the impact of inflation and the food crisis, but the form ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets We've raised our 2023 GDP growth forecast for EMs by 0.2ppts to 3.4%. But we've lowered our 2024 projection by 0.4ppts to 3.9%, primarily due to our revised China outlook. The bank stresses in some advanced economies haven't meaningfully impact ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - South Africa
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - South Africa We forecast weak economic growth for South Africa in 2023, amid numerous domestic challenges, chief of which is loadshedding, and global economic headwinds. The incessant power outages are weighing on economic activity and exacerbating price press ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chile
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chile We continue to expect Chile's economy will contract by 1% y/y in 2023. Tighter monetary policy conditions will be one of the driving factors behind the recession we expect to last until Q3 this year. Indeed, the February monthly GDP proxy (IMACEC) fe ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - South Korea
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - South Korea We've downgraded our 2024 GDP growth forecast by 0.7ppts to 2.1% to reflect a more gradual global recovery and maintained our below-consensus 2023 growth forecast at 0.5%. We think South Korea will narrowly avoid a technical recession, but exports ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mexico
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mexico We continue to raise our 2023 GDP growth outlook for Mexico to reflect strong domestic momentum. We now see stronger activity in H1 and have raised our 2023 growth forecast by 0.4ppts to 1.5%, broadly in line with the consensus. However, risks of a slow ... Read More
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Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts
Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts Crude oil prices surged on news that OPEC+ would cut production by over 1mn b/d beginning in May. The supply response from elsewhere will be limited and not enough to offset the reduction. At the same time, our demand outlook is broadl ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone We have raised our 2023 eurozone GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppts to 0.8%. However, we've cut our outlook for 2024 by 0.3ppts to 1% growth as a consequence of the lagged impact from tighter financing conditions. Our base case remains that the eurozone ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa
Analysis by Region - Africa Phase II of the Lesotho Highlands Water Project (LHWP-II) will be the heartbeat of economic growth over 2023-2029, provided that construction targets are met in accordance with the project schedule. We expect that fixed investment will gain traction in the coming months t ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana The first quarter has come and gone, and the Ghanaian government failed to present its case to the Executive Board of the IMF. Accra aimed to wrap up bilateral debt restructuring before the end of Q1 to provide the multilateral organisation with the nece ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Madagascar
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Madagascar Real GDP growth in Madagascar averaged 4.3% p.a. over the 2021-2022 period as the economy rebounded from a 7.1% Covid-19-induced contraction in 2020. That said, the country remains in a fragile state due to the lingering effects of adverse external ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The March jobs report suggests the US labor market is moving into a healthier balance as softer employment growth and cooler wage inflation suggest we're nearing the end of the Fed's rate hiking cycle. But we expect another 25bps rate hike by the Fed in May sinc ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US Treasury yields were less than 10bps lower this past week, led by the belly of the curve. Most of the week's strong early gains were unwound ahead of the weekend though, as yields jumped Friday in response to the solid March nonfarm payrolls report. The do ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets We maintain our below-consensus 2023 inflation forecast for Brazil, Mexico, and Chile, as seasonal and Phillips curve models point to a downside bias to our estimates. Still, we recognise that sticky core prices and unwinding food and fuel subsidies could ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom A hawkish speech from Huw Pill emphasised that May's MPC meeting is very much live. Pill talked about needing to "see the job through", suggesting he's swaying towards voting for another 25bps hike, though he also emphasised there was alrea ... Read More
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