Category: Service Industries
Service Industries market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets A positive lesson from the recent global volatility is that EM bonds and FX appear partially insulated when the risk-off is associated with declining US inflation expectations and a weakening greenback. Furthermore, we see an upside risk for EM bond return ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Economic policy uncertainty is rising earlier than normal for a presidential election year, and this has implications for the Q4 growth profile. Because of heightened uncertainty, we will adjust our forecast for Q4 business investment in nonresidential structures and eq ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Costa Rica
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Costa Rica We've nudged up our forecast for Costa Rica's GDP growth this year by 0.2ppts to 3.7% as investment figures surprised to the upside in Q2 2024. However, consumption has slowed down amid lower growth in real incomes and higher unemployment. M ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Morocco
Analysis by Region - Africa - Morocco After keeping the policy interest rate at 3.0% for 15 months, Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) cut the rate by 25 bps to 2.75% in June. The cut was a response to two months of low inflation and a dovish move by the European Central Bank. Our forecast is for inflation to re ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom Business survey data suggests that UK activity has continued to grow at a solid pace in Q3. The composite PMI is running at a similar level to H1 2024, though the patchy relationship with official output data suggests we shouldn't take these results too ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The July Federal Open Market Committee minutes and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole provided another clear signal that the Fed will cut rates in September. We think it would take a large, negative surprise in the labor market data between ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Zimbabwe
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Zimbabwe We expect a marked slowdown in Zimbabwean GDP growth this year and for growth to trend even lower in 2025. The drought has ravaged agricultural output and inadequate dam levels have caused severe electricity disruptions. Meanwhile, the Zimbabwean priv ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Prolonged monetary policy hawkishness presents a significant risk to demand growth across emerging markets (EMs). In the short run, central banks can justify tight policies as progress on disinflation has slowed and because of heightened financial market v ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Angola
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Angola Economic growth is gaining momentum thanks to improved stability in the oil sector and robust activity in the trade and transport sectors despite soaring inflation. We forecast a moderate expansion in real GDP of 2.9% in 2024 on the back of the upturn i ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sudan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sudan The ceaseless war in Sudan is forecast to trigger the country's seventh consecutive annual economic contraction this year. After about 16 months of war, global governments released condemnation statements and sanctioned individuals and companies related ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Côte d'Ivoire
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Côte d'Ivoire Persistent inflation in Côte d’Ivoire has cast a slight shadow over the CPI outlook. We now forecast inflation to average 3.5% in 2024 (up from our previous forecast in May of 2.8%) while we have lowered our projection for 2025 to 2.1%. Nonethe ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Since the release of the July employment report, financial markets have been focused on the labor market and the implications for Federal Reserve policy, but the other side of the central bank's dual mandate will come back into view during the week ahead. Some of th ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Our aggregate 2024 GDP growth forecast for emerging markets (EMs) is unchanged at 4%, but we have nudged down our projection for 2025 by 0.1ppt to 3.9% as external headwinds are mounting. Real activity indicators suggest a sof ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom This week has seen substantial volatility in global financial markets, but we think the implications for the UK economy are limited. The UK sell-off has been relatively modest. We also think there's a good chance that equity prices will recover because f ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Lithuania
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Lithuania In line with our expectations, real GDP grew by almost 3% y/y in Q1 – Lithuania's strongest quarterly performance in two years – underpinned by a continued robust recovery in private demand and a strong investment performance. Improving sentiment in ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ukraine
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ukraine The severe energy shortages and the intensifying war, accompanied by a new wave of mobilisation, have dampened Ukraine's economic recovery to only 1.1% y/y of GDP growth in June, from 3.7% y/y in May. But due to stronger growth in Q1, GDP reached a de ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Hong Kong SAR
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Hong Kong SAR A strong export-led start to the year led us to revise up our 2024 forecast for Hong Kong's growth to 3.6%. In 2025, while we've pencilled in sequential moderation in growth, favourable base effects will push y/y growth to 4.1%. This is cons ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Luxembourg
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Luxembourg We maintain our forecast that Luxembourg's economy will grow by 1.1% in 2024, supported by consumption and net exports. The economy expanded by 0.5% q/q in Q1, outpacing growth in the eurozone. But growth was mainly driven by net exports, which con ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mauritius
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mauritius Real GDP growth (non-seasonally adjusted) declined to 6.4% y/y in Q1 2024 from 7.2% y/y in the final quarter of 2023. With growth remaining resilient across most economic sectors and with an upward revision in real GDP growth last year, we have lifte ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom The first business surveys of Q3 provided more evidence that the UK economic recovery has now taken root. While it's still early days, our forecast that q/q GDP growth is likely to remain solid in Q3, albeit slightly slower than in Q2, remains on track. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Governments' reputations for meeting fiscal projections have recovered significantly since the bashing they took during the Covid period, according to our scorecard based on the misses from fiscal ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The lull in the economy during the first three months of the year proved to be temporary. The reacceleration in GDP growth in Q2 should help temper concerns about the durability of the expansion and quiet chatter that the Federal Reserve needs to cut inte ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belarus
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belarus We nudged up our 2024 growth forecast for Belarus to 2.2% from 1.9%. We've also cut our forecast to 1.5% for next year, from 1.8%. The changes to our forecast reflects the strength of recent GDP data and continued robustness of the Russian economy. Da ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - North Korea
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - North Korea We estimate that North Korea GDP in 2023 turned positive for the first time in three years, thanks to a sudden increase in ammunition sales to Russia and non-state armed actors. That said, we still expect North Korea's economic outlook to remain c ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom UK GDP growth beat expectations again in May, meaning output remains on track for another quarter of solid growth in Q2. This adds to the evidence that the economy has now firmly turned a corner and supports our above-consensus forecast for GDP growth in 202 ... Read More
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