Category: International Trade
International Trade market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Fiji
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Fiji We expect GDP for Fiji will grow by 4.0% this year and by 3.7% in 2025. After two years of extremely high growth between 2021 and 2023, we anticipate more gradual but still solid GDP growth to follow. Tourism is still fuelling growth. The sector has conti ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Latin America - Trinidad and Tobago
Analysis by Region - Latin America - Trinidad and Tobago We expect GDP will grow by 3.0% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025. Resilience in non-fuel sectors has led to a more optimistic outlook for Trinidad and Tobago's economy. The US economy has also continued to outperform expectations, helping to suppo ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Moldova
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Moldova The Moldovan economy is recovering slower than we expected from the shock of the war in neighbouring Ukraine. We forecast GDP growth of 2.4% for 2024, after a subdued 0.7% y/y growth in 2023. Last year, domestic demand slumped against a backdrop of unc ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bermuda
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bermuda We forecast GDP to grow by 4% in 2024, and another 4% in 2025. Bermuda's budget for FY24/25 has supported our forecast of solid growth prospects for the near term. The budget, titled: 'Investing in our people and our future', contains many pra ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Europe
Analysis by Region - Europe We have revised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Kyrgyzstan to 4% y/y, 0.2ppts down from the previous forecast. We expect that growth will drop to 3.2% y/y in 2025, but will then hover around 4% in the medium to long term. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Curacao
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Curacao We expect Curaçao's GDP to grow by 1.3% this year, marking a slowdown from a recent post-pandemic rebound. The higher interest rate environment will weigh on private investment in important industries and the slowdown in global growth will hurt t ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - North Macedonia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - North Macedonia For North Macedonia, we now forecast that GDP will grow by a more muted 1.9% this year followed by slightly stronger growth of 2.5% in 2025. In both the parliamentary and presidential election, the VMRO-DPMNE party received significant support lea ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Armenia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Armenia We've boosted our forecast for Armenia's GDP growth in 2024 to 7.8% y/y, up from 3.8% six months ago, following an 8.7% expansion last year. Growth momentum remained strong at the start of 2024, with GDP expanding by 9.2% y/y in Q1 amid buoyant ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Myanmar
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Myanmar We've cut our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Myanmar to 2.2%. This reflects the deteriorating security situation and its spillovers into every corner of the economy. The consumer outlook is still bleak as high inflation continues to weigh on real inc ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Georgia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Georgia Georgia's economy performed strongly in H2 2023 by growing 7.5%, beating our forecast. We expect growth will moderate in 2024 but remain very healthy at 5.3%, up from our previous forecast of 4.1%. Solid foreign ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Puerto Rico
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Puerto Rico We've raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Puerto Rico by 0.8ppts to 1.6%, though this still marks a slowdown from 2.8% last year. Federal funds from disaster-relief programs and pandemic stimulus have buoyed infrastructure projects and private ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Virgin Islands (US)
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Virgin Islands (US) We've upgraded our 2024 GDP growth forecast for the US Virgin Islands by 0.1ppt to 1.2% y/y. The global economy is anticipated to make a steady recovery this year, boosting the confidence of key trading partners. Construction and tourism w ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Anguilla
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Anguilla We've downgraded our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Anguilla by 0.7ppts to 6% y/y as the headwinds from inflation and global uncertainty continue to cloud the outlook. However, we expect tourism will continue to aid growth and demand for the country ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Suriname
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Suriname We maintained our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Suriname at 2.1% y/y because ongoing high inflation, anti-austerity protests, and a weaker global economy will likely depress real incomes. We now expect the recent oil discoveries will start to contribute t ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Montenegro
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Montenegro We have raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Montenegro by 0.2pts to 3.6%. We expect growth will then slow to 3% in 2025, though this is still slightly higher than our forecast in November 2023. We anticipate GDP growth will remain strong in 2024 ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Laos
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Laos We have reduced our 2024 GDP growth forecast by 1.9ppts to 4.3%. This reflects the fall in real household income due to lofty inflation rates caused by a depreciation of the kip. We expect 2024 GDP growth to be constrained by structural challenges, though we ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Syrian Arab Republic
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Syrian Arab Republic Record inflation, a deepening currency crisis, and geopolitical uncertainty over conflicts in the Middle East have led us to revise downwards our real GDP growth forecast for Syria this year to -1.4%. This marks the third consecutive year of ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Antigua and Barbuda
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Antigua and Barbuda We increased our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Antigua and Barbuda by 0.7ppts to 5.8% y/y. This solid growth is aided by tourism and construction activity increasing, to which real activity is expected to climb to pre-pandemic levels by the end ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - St. Lucia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - St. Lucia We have downgraded our 2024 growth forecast for Saint Lucia by 0.6ppts to 4.9% y/y, though this was due to the base effects created by a stronger-than-expected performance in 2023. The outperformance last year was driven largely by a very strong tourism ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kosovo
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kosovo We updated our GDP forecast for 2024, nudging down our forecast by 0.2pts to 3.7%. This reflects our expectation that 2023 saw greater GDP growth than we anticipated, which we now believe came in at 3.7%, 0.3pts higher than we forecast in November. Our ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Barbados
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Barbados We have adjusted our 2024 GDP growth projection for Barbados downward by 0.3ppts to 3.2%. While fiscal consolidation targets continue to be met and the performance of tourism is resilient, sustained domestic inflationary pressures are expected to weigh o ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Latin America
Analysis by Region - Latin America After the Bahamian economy’s strong rebound in 2023, with real GDP growth reaching 4.4% and unemployment falling to 9.5%, we project that real GDP growth will fall to 2.4% in 2024. We forecast that inflation will continue to fall, driving consumption back up to pre ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa
Analysis by Region - Africa Available data indicates that economic momentum slowed in Q1 2024. However, despite a brief dip into contractionary territory in March, the PMI still signals growth in the economy's agricultural, construction, wholesale & retail, industrial, and services sectors o ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Solomon Islands
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Solomon Islands We lowered our GDP growth forecast for 2024 by 1.5ppts, although it is still expected to grow by 2.2% and pick up to 2.4% growth in 2025. The forecasted GDP growth for 2024 remains under the Asia Pacific average of 3.7%. The boost to GDP in 2023 h ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Grenada
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Grenada We kept our 2024 GDP forecast for Grenada at 4.3%, a moderation from 2023 growth due to a slower expansion in tourism and construction. The ongoing strength of the US consumer will uphold Grenada's tourism-driven economy, particularly in the first hal ... Read More
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