Category: International Trade
International Trade market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Polls have shifted in favor of Republicans in recent days. Former President Donald Trump is leading in just enough battleground states to win the Electoral College. Key Senate races where Democrats are defending their seats have tightened, and House Democrats are no lon ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Serbia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Serbia We raised our GDP forecast for 2024 by 0.6ppts to 4.1% in 2024 and left 2025 unchanged at 4%. Better-than-expected GDP data outturns led us to revise our forecast for this year. In 2025, a more favourable carryover effect will offset the slightly softer qu ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iceland
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iceland We forecast Iceland's economy will expand by 2.8% in 2025, accelerating from 0.9% this year. Prospects have improved due to a better demographic outlook. We expect more stubborn inflation, averaging 3.9% next year and 6.0% in 2024, due to its stickine ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Long-term interest rates trended higher over the past several weeks but the increase doesn't pose a significant downside risk to our forecast. Some of the increase is attributed to the bond market betting on former President Donald Trump winning the election, sugges ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Central African Republic
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Central African Republic The Central African Republic (CAR) remains entrenched in a complex web of conflict, regulatory uncertainty, and fuel shortages. Yet, despite all the difficulties, the economy is holding on thanks to a surge in gold prices, a rebound in ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cape Verde
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cape Verde Annual economic growth averaged 9.7% y/y in the first half of 2024, with strong performances in the transport (23.3% y/y) and accommodation and food service (37.9% y/y) sectors. However, due to the high base, growth is expected to slow in the year&# ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo Republic
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo Republic Congo's average oil production declined to 259,000 bpd in the first nine months of the year from 275,300 bpd in the same period in 2023. We now project a sharper 4.0% reduction in Congo's average oil output for 2024 (-3.1% estimated prev ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Greece
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Greece In its regular data revision process, ELSTAT revised up both nominal and real GDP for Greece. As a result, nominal GDP data for 2023 is now 2.3% higher than the previous estimate. We'll incorporate the new data into our forecast as soon as the quarterl ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Austria
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Austria Economic activity in Austria remained weaker than we anticipated in recent months and heavy floods in September presented an additional drag. Consequently, we now expect flat quarterly growth for Q3. But risks are skewed to the downside as industrial prod ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Togo
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Togo Following real GDP growth of 6.4% last year, we forecast economic growth to average 4.7% p.a. over the 2024-2025 period. Factors that will support economic activity over this time frame include structural reforms, key investments in the industrial sector, ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Botswana
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Botswana Botswana’s diamond industry has continued to struggle after a poor start to the year: it contracted by 6.5% q/q in Q2, after a sharp decline of 16.6% q/q in Q1 2024. Recent diamond sales and export data have also revealed a concerning downward trend, ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burkina Faso
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burkina Faso Burkina Faso’s fragile security situation has been compounded by persistent challenges, especially related to poor weather conditions and policy uncertainty in the mining sector. However, the surge in gold prices throughout 2024 has provided a sil ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Benin
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Benin Benin’s economy rebounded strongly from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, expanding by 6.6% p.a. over the 2021-2023 period. This impressive performance is set to persist, and we forecast average annual growth of 6.2% for 2024 and 2025. Robust investm ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The September data on consumer and producer prices were mixed, but it doesn't alter our near-term forecast for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25bps at each of its two remaining meetings this year. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Gambia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Gambia Official GDP figures show that the Gambian economy exceeded expectations last year. Indications are that this year will be no different. The economy grew by 5.3% in 2023, supported by sound performances in the agricultural, telecommunications, and const ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Seychelles
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Seychelles We forecast real GDP growth of 3.1% in 2024 as investments in the information technology sector boost economic activity. While tourism revenue prospects for the short term are improving, tourist arrivals still fall short of pre-pandemic levels. Incr ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq We've raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Iraq by 0.6ppts to 2.5%. We mainly attribute our upward revision to the overproduction of oil since January, supported by expansionary fiscal policy. But we've lowered our forecast for 2025 to 2.8% from 3 ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Jordan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Jordan We've revised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Jordan to 1.6% down from 2.6% in 2023, underpinned by the ongoing regional conflict. Data for Q1 2024 shows a continued contraction in GDP for the second consecutive quarter on quarterly terms. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Malta
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Malta We've trimmed our 2024 GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppts to 3.9% but raised our forecast for next year by the same amount to 4.0%. We estimate the positive impact from generative artificial intelligence will reach around 1.5% of GDP over the long term. We ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chad
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chad Foreign direct investment in Chad surged by 48% y/y in 2023, largely directed at new oil and gas exploration and infrastructure. However, ongoing legal disputes between existing oil operators and the government, and uncertainty around the new political le ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burundi
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burundi Heavy rains throughout Burundi between January and May this year have caused floods and landslides, leading to widespread displacement of people, infrastructural damage, and poor crop production. Given that over 80% of Burundians are employed in the ag ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Madagascar
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Madagascar High-frequency indicators suggest that economic growth in Madagascar was robust in Q2 2024. The central bank's Indicator of Business Activities (IAE) recorded a 17.2% y/y expansion in the second quarter, primarily driven by improved tertiary sec ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Comoros
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Comoros We forecast real GDP growth in the Comoros to advance to 3.3% in 2024 – a noteworthy improvement on last year's actual economic growth rate of 2.7%. Short- to medium-term economic growth is anticipated to be primarily driven by real investments and ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The Federal Reserve will kick off its rate-cutting cycle at next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, with the only outstanding question being whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps. We think the data only justifies a 25bp cut. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Guinea
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Guinea Real GDP growth came in above our expectations at 7.1% in 2023, largely driven by robust growth in total fixed investment. We now project the Guinean economy to grow by 5.4% this year, higher than our previous estimate of 4.6%. Given the better-than-exp ... Read More
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