Category: International Trade
International Trade market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mozambique
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mozambique Economic growth has been resilient in H1 2024, mainly reflecting expansions in hydrocarbon production and transport services. In the short term, natural gas production growth will stall due to a lack of new projects coming on stream, while widesprea ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Cyprus
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Cyprus We have raised our long-term GDP forecast for Cyprus by incorporating the impact of AI on the economy. We now estimate that GDP will be 1.3% higher by 2050, driven by higher productivity. We continue to project GDP will expand by 3% this year and 1.6% in 2 ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Eswatini
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Eswatini A robust services sector, supported by increased revenues from the Southern African Customs Union (Sacu), yielded an impressive economic growth rate of 4.8% in 2023. In 2024, another year of elevated Sacu revenues and an expansionary fiscal policy are ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Madagascar
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Madagascar High-frequency indicators suggest that economic growth in Madagascar was robust in Q2 2024. The central bank's Indicator of Business Activities (IAE) recorded a 17.2% y/y expansion in the second quarter, primarily driven by improved tertiary sec ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Comoros
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Comoros We forecast real GDP growth in the Comoros to advance to 3.3% in 2024 – a noteworthy improvement on last year's actual economic growth rate of 2.7%. Short- to medium-term economic growth is anticipated to be primarily driven by real investments and ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The Federal Reserve will kick off its rate-cutting cycle at next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, with the only outstanding question being whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps. We think the data only justifies a 25bp cut. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Latvia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Latvia We've cut our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Latvia by 1.2ppts to just 0.6% since our last update in June. We attribute our downward revision primarily to a large growth disappointment in Q2, when the economy shrank by 1.1% q/q, posting the largest contr ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Senegal
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Senegal The Senegalese economy's slow start to the year prompted us to cut our 2024 real GDP growth forecast to 6.5% from our previous estimate of 7.9%. The delayed extraction of benefits from the nascent hydrocarbon industry means that the twin fiscal and ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Guinea
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Guinea Real GDP growth came in above our expectations at 7.1% in 2023, largely driven by robust growth in total fixed investment. We now project the Guinean economy to grow by 5.4% this year, higher than our previous estimate of 4.6%. Given the better-than-exp ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Argentina
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Argentina Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2024, falling by 7.7%, picking up to 6.2% growth in 2025. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific We've cut our 2024 GDP growth forecast for New Zealand to just 0.6% from 1.0% to reflect the sustained weakness in GDP growth in H1. Weakness in demand contributed to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision to kick off its cutting cycle in August. We expe ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mali
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mali Mali's real GDP growth stood at 4.7% in 2023, lower than our previous estimate of 5.2%. We expect growth to remain broadly stable at 4.6% this year. According to the landlocked nation's mining ministry, industrial gold production is projected to s ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Economic policy uncertainty is rising earlier than normal for a presidential election year, and this has implications for the Q4 growth profile. Because of heightened uncertainty, we will adjust our forecast for Q4 business investment in nonresidential structures and eq ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The July Federal Open Market Committee minutes and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole provided another clear signal that the Fed will cut rates in September. We think it would take a large, negative surprise in the labor market data between ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sudan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sudan The ceaseless war in Sudan is forecast to trigger the country's seventh consecutive annual economic contraction this year. After about 16 months of war, global governments released condemnation statements and sanctioned individuals and companies related ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Since the release of the July employment report, financial markets have been focused on the labor market and the implications for Federal Reserve policy, but the other side of the central bank's dual mandate will come back into view during the week ahead. Some of th ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Lithuania
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Lithuania In line with our expectations, real GDP grew by almost 3% y/y in Q1 – Lithuania's strongest quarterly performance in two years – underpinned by a continued robust recovery in private demand and a strong investment performance. Improving sentiment in ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ukraine
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ukraine The severe energy shortages and the intensifying war, accompanied by a new wave of mobilisation, have dampened Ukraine's economic recovery to only 1.1% y/y of GDP growth in June, from 3.7% y/y in May. But due to stronger growth in Q1, GDP reached a de ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Hong Kong SAR
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Hong Kong SAR A strong export-led start to the year led us to revise up our 2024 forecast for Hong Kong's growth to 3.6%. In 2025, while we've pencilled in sequential moderation in growth, favourable base effects will push y/y growth to 4.1%. This is cons ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The lull in the economy during the first three months of the year proved to be temporary. The reacceleration in GDP growth in Q2 should help temper concerns about the durability of the expansion and quiet chatter that the Federal Reserve needs to cut inte ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - North Korea
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - North Korea We estimate that North Korea GDP in 2023 turned positive for the first time in three years, thanks to a sudden increase in ammunition sales to Russia and non-state armed actors. That said, we still expect North Korea's economic outlook to remain c ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Even though economic growth in Q2 is tracking below our expectations, we still think the core of the economy is healthy and we anticipate growth will remain close to 2% over the rest of this year. The labor market is resilient, and with inflation pressures easing again, ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Iran
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Iran Despite a significant increase in crude oil output in 2023, Iran’s GDP growth is expected to slow in 2024 due to reduced oil exports and fixed investment. Growth is projected to slow in FY2024 to 2.9%, hindered by tighter sanctions affecting oil productio ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Italy
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Italy As estimated last quarter, Italy’s industrial output in Q4 has gone from bad to worse. The country’s output fell by 0.4% in the final quarter of 2023, the third consecutive fall in output. While manufacturing did grow in 2023’s last quarter, industrial p ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Canada
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Canada Canada’s industrial production for Q4 of 2023 expanded by approximately 0.4%. However, overall industrial production contracted by approximately 0.6% in 2023. Our outlook for 2024 is slightly more positive, with output in the sector expected to expand b ... Read More
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