Category: International Trade
International Trade market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US Some of the rapid late 2023 move to price in rate cuts has been reversed in early 2024 trading, but we think markets remain too aggressively positioned, with the FOMC not likely to begin the rate cutting cycle until the May meeting. That could nudge Treasury y ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - China
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - China With a 1.1% q/q expansion of industrial output in Q3 and 6.6% y/y monthly growth in November, industrial output in China is firmly on track to expand by about 4.5% in 2023. We expect a broadly similar pace of annual growth in 2024 as government stimulus ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The Federal Open Market Committee pivoted from its hawkish stance this week, sending a strong message that rate cuts are done and that concern about the downside risks to the economy from restrictive monetary policy will play a bigger role in policy decisions going forw ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Croatia
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Croatia Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2023, increasing by 0.5%, picking up to 1.6% growth in 2024. ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Colombia
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Colombia Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2023, falling by 1.7%, picking up to 0.4% growth in 2024. ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Kuwait
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Kuwait Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2023, falling by 4.2%, picking up to 0.6% growth in 2024. ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Ukraine
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Ukraine Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to outpace economic growth in 2023, increasing by 11.5%, before easing to 11.3% growth in 2024. ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Taiwan
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Taiwan Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2023, falling by 8.9%, picking up to 2.1% growth in 2024. ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Vietnam
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Vietnam Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2023, increasing by 2.1%, picking up to 4.8% growth in 2024. ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Turkey
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Turkey Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2023, increasing by 0.2%, picking up to 1.1% growth in 2024. ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Uruguay
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Uruguay Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to outpace economic growth in 2023, increasing by 1.5%, picking up to 3.2% growth in 2024. ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Romania
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Romania Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2023, falling by 4.4%, picking up to 2.7% growth in 2024. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific We forecast Papua New Guinea's (PNG) GDP will expand by 6.7% in 2023, a 3.2ppts increase from our previous forecast. Growth will remain strong at 5.8% in 2024, before gradually declining to more stable levels in subsequent years. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Europe
Analysis by Region - Europe We've raised our GDP growth forecasts for Turkmenistan by 0.1ppt to 3.1% y/y in 2023 and by 0.5ppts to 2.7% y/y in 2024, as we expect energy prices to rise due to an intensifying Israel-Hamas conflict. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets We have raised our GDP forecast for Aruba to a 1.4% y/y expansion from a 0.1% y/y decline expected previously. The ongoing recovery of the tourism sector and a stable inflation rate have prevented an economic contraction. In the near term, we expect the economy ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Lao PDR
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Lao PDR We have postponed our projection for the beginning of Laos's GDP recovery to Q1 2024 and have therefore revised our 2024 GDP growth forecast to 4.6% y/y. Our updated forecast reflects lower household real income due to elevated inflation that is be ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bahamas, The
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bahamas, The Following two years of double-digit growth, we expect that real GDP growth in the Bahamas will slow to 3.8% y/y in 2023. Record inflation has constrained domestic consumption. However, an encouraging recovery in tourism has boosted economic activity ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Afghanistan
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Afghanistan We've lowered our 2023 GDP growth forecast for Afghanistan to 1.4% from 1.6% previously, following an 11.8% contraction in 2022. The downgrade reflects the three earthquakes that occurred within a week in mid-October and the Taliban's rule ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Venezuela
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Venezuela We've raised our assumptions for Venezuelan's 2023 GDP growth to 1.6%, up from 0.8% six months ago. This follows a stunning 12.4% expansion in 2022. Short-term growth momentum has been heavily supported by the oil sector, as output is estimated ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Canada
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Canada Consumers and businesses are starting to yield to higher interest rates, and their full impact is building. The Canadian economy already slipped into a technical recession in Q2 and Q3 2023 according to preliminary GDP estimates by StatCan. We anticipate s ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa
Analysis by Region - Africa Momentum in economic activity in Uganda remained robust during Q2 2023, mainly supported by the services and industry sectors of the economy. Available data indicates that growth started on a high note in Q3 2023, driven by improvements in exports, loan advancements to th ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Latin America - Grenada
Analysis by Region - Latin America - Grenada We have raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Grenada by 0.3ppts to 4.3%, as supply chain and tourism conditions within the economy have returned to pre-pandemic levels. But we think the pace of economic growth will slow next year from a projected growt ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Azerbaijan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Azerbaijan We estimate Azerbaijan's growth rate will slow to 0.9% this year from 4.8% in 2022. The primary reason is the drop in oil production, which was down 8% y/y in H1 and was only partially offset by a 3% increase in gas production. We expect growth of ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Georgia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Georgia Georgia's economy performed strongly in H1, prompting us to raise our 2023 GDP growth forecast to 6.8% from 3.6% previously. We expect growth to moderate in 2024 but remain solid at 4.1%, modestly down from our previous forecast of 4.4%. Solid fore ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The economy has been resilient in 2023, but we expect growth to lose momentum in the year's closing quarter as higher interest rates and tighter lending conditions weigh on activity. Impacts of a possible government shutdown and a prolonged United Auto Workers strik ... Read More
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