Category: International Trade
International Trade market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Gabon
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Gabon General Brice Oligui Nguema's coup d'état in August 2023 caused political upheaval but marked a monumental step towards Gabon's democratic renewal. Gen Oligui has solidified his support, leading to increased political stability. The tran ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Taiwan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Taiwan We continue to expect Taiwan’s growth outlook will be supported by the upward trend of the global tech cycle and the surging demand for AI chips. The impact of the recent earthquake on the local economy is likely to be only temporary and will not alter the ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - South Korea
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - South Korea South Korea's GDP grew by 1.3% q/q or 3.4% y/y in Q1, the fastest in nine consecutive quarters, due to the recovery in domestic demand. Investment rebounded by 1.5% q/q and consumption by 0.8% q/q, in total contributing 0.8ppts to growth in t ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bahrain
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bahrain We've revised up our 2024 growth forecast for Bahrain from 1.8% to 1.9% and expect a slight easing to 1.8% in 2025. Last year, GDP growth lost momentum, falling to 1.7% amid challenging global economic circumstances. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Europe - Switzerland
Analysis by Region - Europe - Switzerland We've raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Switzerland by 0.2ppts to 1.4% (or to 1.1% when adjusted for revenues from major sporting events). Although the outlook for this year has improved slightly, our revised forecast is still in line with the expe ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Cambodia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Cambodia We've nudged down our forecasts for Cambodia's GDP growth, to 5.4% from 5.6% for 2023 and to 6.4% from 6.5% for 2024, given that the recovery in tourism fared below our expectations. Although, new export drivers in agricultural products and elect ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sao Tome and Principe
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sao Tome and Principe Real GDP growth is envisaged to expand to 2.5% in 2024, as the island is benefitting from skyrocketing cocoa prices. The price of cocoa began creeping up in the second half of 2022, before rising rapidly in early 2024 to hit a record high ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US Treasury yields climbed steadily throughout this past week as bearish data caused Fed rate cut expectations to shrink, supply pressures weighed, oil prices rose, and technical support levels failed. Three-year through seven-year yields rose more than 25bps as ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Vietnam
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Vietnam We have raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Vietnam by 0.2ppts to 5.2% to reflect a stronger end to 2023 than we'd expected. The external sector is likely to be key to the outlook. We assume some levelling off in export growth after a strong rebou ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - New Zealand
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - New Zealand We have downgraded our 2023 GDP growth forecast for New Zealand by 1.7ppts to 0.3% y/y as large revisions to GDP and weaker than expected activity in Q3 paint a sour picture. The headwinds to households are approaching their peak, so we think the decl ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The resilience of the economy was on full display this week, with the monthly data showing that much of the surprising Q4 GDP strength was backloaded to December, suggesting the economy is entering 2024 on a strong footing. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US Treasury yields were mixed this week, steadying as key support levels held even as the curve steepened. The two-year yield was slightly lower on the week as of mid-Friday afternoon, while yields through the intermediate sector were little changed, and bond yie ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US Some of the rapid late 2023 move to price in rate cuts has been reversed in early 2024 trading, but we think markets remain too aggressively positioned, with the FOMC not likely to begin the rate cutting cycle until the May meeting. That could nudge Treasury y ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - China
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - China With a 1.1% q/q expansion of industrial output in Q3 and 6.6% y/y monthly growth in November, industrial output in China is firmly on track to expand by about 4.5% in 2023. We expect a broadly similar pace of annual growth in 2024 as government stimulus ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The Federal Open Market Committee pivoted from its hawkish stance this week, sending a strong message that rate cuts are done and that concern about the downside risks to the economy from restrictive monetary policy will play a bigger role in policy decisions going forw ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Croatia
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Croatia Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2023, increasing by 0.5%, picking up to 1.6% growth in 2024. ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Colombia
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Colombia Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2023, falling by 1.7%, picking up to 0.4% growth in 2024. ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Kuwait
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Kuwait Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2023, falling by 4.2%, picking up to 0.6% growth in 2024. ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Ukraine
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Ukraine Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to outpace economic growth in 2023, increasing by 11.5%, before easing to 11.3% growth in 2024. ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Taiwan
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Taiwan Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2023, falling by 8.9%, picking up to 2.1% growth in 2024. ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Vietnam
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Vietnam Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2023, increasing by 2.1%, picking up to 4.8% growth in 2024. ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Turkey
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Turkey Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2023, increasing by 0.2%, picking up to 1.1% growth in 2024. ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Uruguay
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Uruguay Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to outpace economic growth in 2023, increasing by 1.5%, picking up to 3.2% growth in 2024. ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Romania
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Romania Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2023, falling by 4.4%, picking up to 2.7% growth in 2024. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific We forecast Papua New Guinea's (PNG) GDP will expand by 6.7% in 2023, a 3.2ppts increase from our previous forecast. Growth will remain strong at 5.8% in 2024, before gradually declining to more stable levels in subsequent years. ... Read More
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