Category: International Trade
International Trade market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Italy
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Italy Italy’s industrial output contracted in the second quarter of 2024. However, we expect industrial production to experience a modest uptick of 1.4% in 2025, being mostly driven by utilities. A handful of sectors are weighing down on IP this year, particul ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Japan
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Japan We maintain our cautious outlook for 2025. We expect growth to rebound to 1.2% next year following a 0.2% contraction in 2024, but the average quarterly growth will be modest at 0.2%. Domestic demand will remain soft as weak yen will limit the households ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Eurozone
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Eurozone We expect industrial production to rebound by 2.0% in 2025, reversing the 1.7% contraction in 2024. However, subdued sentiment and business surveys suggest a weak start to the year, with recovery likely concentrated in H2 2025 as the delayed effects o ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - China
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - China Industrial output grew by somewhat less than we had expected in Q3 2024, but we expect that catch-up growth in Q4 will make up for the losses, allowing for total growth to come in at 5.3% for the year, just under our previous forecast. We still expect a ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Eswatini
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Eswatini Eswatini’s mid-term budget review for the 2024/25 fiscal year projects a narrower fiscal deficit than pencilled in when the budget was originally presented in February. This is attributed to improved Southern African Customs Union (Sacu) receipts and ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany Value-added industrial output shrunk again in Q3, this time falling by 1.4% q/q. There is little reason for cheer in most of the recent data: October, the first month of Q4, showed another drop in the industrial production index, bringing levels to jus ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific We downgraded our GDP forecasts for 2025 to 2% from 2.2%. Even so, that's a big improvement from the lacklustre growth of just 0.6% this year. The central bank accelerated the pace of its cutting cycle with 50 basis point cuts in October and November. We expect ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Uzbekistan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Uzbekistan We forecast Uzbekistan's real GDP will grow by 5.9% next year, still supported by strong fixed investment, robust domestic consumption, and expansionary fiscal policy. The subdued economies of key trading partners like Russia and China and high glo ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Bangladesh
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Bangladesh We still expect real GDP growth in Bangladesh will cool to 5.5% during FY2024/25 (ending in June 2025), after the economy expanded by 5.8% in FY2023/24. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mozambique
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mozambique The spate of violent protests and strikes in the wake of the disputed general elections in October has disrupted business operations across various sectors and is a blow to investor and business confidence. The turn of events has raised the risk of ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Senegal
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Senegal Senegal’s economy expanded by only 3.1% on a cumulative basis in H1 2024. Over this period, the primary and tertiary sectors grew by 4.4% and 3.6%, respectively. Concurrently, the secondary sector – which has been flagged as a key source of growth due ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Colombia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Colombia We've kept our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Colombia unchanged at 2.1%. We expect growth will increase slightly from this year, boosted by flexible financial conditions and lower inflation. Private consumption will lose some momentum due to its ro ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Tunisia
Analysis by Region - Africa - Tunisia The longer Tunisia is cut off from international capital markets, the more desperate authorities are becoming to finance the fiscal deficit. In a move that will raise concerns with the IMF, the Parliament passed a law that will force the central bank to finance ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo According to the IMF's most recent World Economic Outlook, the Fund expects the Congolese economy to expand by 4.7% this year. Our forecast of 5.8% is more optimistic – we believe the continued strong performance of the country's mining industry ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brazil
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brazil In our final data update of 2024, we expect growth in the new year to moderate considerably to 1.5% from 3.2% this year. Monetary policy is quickly shifting into a much more contractionary stance as policymakers turn less and less tolerant of above-targ ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
Analysis by Region - MENA We've kept our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Turkey unchanged at 1.9% as we expect economic momentum will remain downbeat over the near term. This follows the Q3 GDP data release, which showed an expansion of 2.1% y/y, matching our projection. The consumer adjustment rem ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cambodia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cambodia We maintain an optimistic outlook for the Cambodian economy. We expect GDP growth of 6.4% y/y in 2025, up from an estimated 6.3% expansion in 2024. Despite downside risks, the overall growth outlook remains positive. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Australia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Australia We've marginally lowered our 2024 GDP growth estimate for Australia by 0.1ppt to 1% and continue to forecast growth of 2% in 2025. The Q3 national accounts were in line with our modest expectations, with GDP increasing by just 0.3% q/q in the quarte ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ecuador
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ecuador We revised our growth forecast up by 0.6ppts to 1.8% for 2025 and 2.8% for 2026 after a null growth in 2024. Private demand is expected to recover from a 1% contraction in 2024 to 1.8% growth in 2025. This rebound is mainly due to base effects, as market ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Bahrain
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Bahrain Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to be broadly in line with economic growth in 2024, increasing by 2.9%, before easing to 1.4% growth in 2025. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kazakhstan
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kazakhstan We've bumped up our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Kazakhstan to 4.1% from 3.9% and expect growth will exceed 6% in 2026. The planned expansion of the Tengiz oil field is set to boost growth towards end-2025. But the main reason for our forecast u ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Argentina
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Argentina We cut our GDP growth forecast by 0.3ppts to 3.5% for 2025 and by 0.1ppt to 3.9% for 2026. The revision is due to base effects from a better-than-expected Q3 performance in the external sector. Our forecast for next year is lower than consensus for 2025 ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Aruba
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Aruba We have upgraded our 2024 GDP growth estimate for Aruba to 5.6% and have lowered our forecast for 2025 by 0.2 ppts to 4.1%. A stronger US economy than in our previous forecast and continued infrastructure investment contributed to our 2024 revisions. Mea ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
Analysis by Region - MENA We've raised our GDP growth forecasts for Jordan to 2.4% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2025. Although the ongoing regional conflict has caused tourism income to decline by 4.3% y/y over the first nine months of this year, stronger performances in the manufacturing sector and net ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
Analysis by Region - MENA We've cut our 2024 GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppts to a 2.0% contraction, and expect a 2.6% expansion next year. Our revision reflects an extension by OPEC+ of the voluntary oil production cuts until at least January due to concerns over weak demand. We expect the cuts w ... Read More
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