Category: International Trade
International Trade market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Latin America - Grenada
Analysis by Region - Latin America - Grenada We have raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Grenada by 0.3ppts to 4.3%, as supply chain and tourism conditions within the economy have returned to pre-pandemic levels. But we think the pace of economic growth will slow next year from a projected growt ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Azerbaijan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Azerbaijan We estimate Azerbaijan's growth rate will slow to 0.9% this year from 4.8% in 2022. The primary reason is the drop in oil production, which was down 8% y/y in H1 and was only partially offset by a 3% increase in gas production. We expect growth of ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Georgia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Georgia Georgia's economy performed strongly in H1, prompting us to raise our 2023 GDP growth forecast to 6.8% from 3.6% previously. We expect growth to moderate in 2024 but remain solid at 4.1%, modestly down from our previous forecast of 4.4%. Solid fore ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The economy has been resilient in 2023, but we expect growth to lose momentum in the year's closing quarter as higher interest rates and tighter lending conditions weigh on activity. Impacts of a possible government shutdown and a prolonged United Auto Workers strik ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Pakistan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Pakistan We have revised our GDP growth forecast for Pakistan next year down to just 0.6% as the ongoing crisis takes a toll on the economy. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US Treasury yields were mixed this week as the curve flattened, pivoting around the seven- to 10-year sector. The two-year yield was more than 11bps higher as of mid-Friday afternoon, and the 30-year bond yield was 10bps lower, resulting in the largest weekly cur ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Fed Chair Jerome Powell deliberately avoided breaking much new ground in his Jackson Hole speech this week, but he suggested that the Fed would need to see above-trend GDP growth or labor markets no longer cooling to justify additional rate hikes. Our view is that the e ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The new data on inflation will not change the Fed’s immediate plan or its communication strategy as it will continue to signal that it has not won the inflation battle yet. The Fed will strike a hawkish tone because it wants to prevent ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US Treasury yields finished the week several bps higher, with the front- and intermediate sector seeing the largest back-up in rates. The 2s10s curve was little changed on the week, but a spike in five-year note yields pushed the 5s30s spread back into inversion ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Rwanda
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Rwanda The Rwandan economy performed slightly weaker than anticipated in Q1 2023. This year we expect a tightening in purse strings, both by households and the government, as the substantial rise in prices and higher borrowing costs permeate the economy. In ad ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US While the large base effects that helped pull down headline CPI inflation to 3% in June are behind us, a downshift in shelter inflation, falling auto prices, and a gradual easing in wage growth should mean better news for core inflation through the second half of the ye ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The labor market remains exceptionally tight. Nonfarm payroll growth downshifted in June but held above its average pre-pandemic pace. The unemployment rate inched down to a historically low level and wage growth was stubbornly elevated. We expect more job gains in Q3 b ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US Treasury yields were higher this week, led by 20bps increases in seven- and 10-year yields as of early Friday afternoon. Bearish technicals, asset manager positioning, and rising Fed rate hike expectations pushed rates higher overall. The curve steepened, thou ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Barbados
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Barbados We think the Barbados economy will expand by 4.8% this year, following 9.1% growth in 2022. GDP will likely return to its pre-pandemic level by Q4 2023, driven by a solid but slow tourism recovery. We forecast tourist arrivals will grow by 27% in 2023 ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Macedonia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Macedonia We now forecast North Macedonia's GDP will grow by just 1.3% in 2023. Economic activity is being held back by the sharp rise in interest rates and slower export growth. But the resilience of investment, which supported growth of 2.2% in 2022, wil ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brunei
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brunei After contracting 1.6% in 2022, Brunei's economy is expected to expand by 3.3% in 2023 and 3.2% in 2024 due to higher investment spending, bringing GDP back to its pre-pandemic level. Investment will focus on the expansion of petrochemical plants, r ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Turkmenistan
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Turkmenistan We have raised our 2023 GDP growth forecast for Turkmenistan by 1.1ppts to 3% to reflect our expectation that stronger Chinese import demand in the near term will support economic activity. Revisions to national accounts data also show the hit to ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Puerto Rico
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Puerto Rico We've raised our 2023 GDP forecast for Puerto Rico by 0.5ppts to a 0.8% contraction, but have lowered our outlook for 2024 by 1.1ppts to 1.2% growth. Consumer spending and infrastructure projects, backed by federal funds, helped propel Puerto R ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Suriname
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Suriname We have lowered our 2023 GDP growth forecast for Suriname by 0.3ppts to 0.9% because ongoing high inflation, anti-austerity protests, and a weaker global economy will depress real incomes. We now expect recent oil discoveries to contribute to GDP in 2 ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kyrgyzstan
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kyrgyzstan We expect Kyrgyzstan's GDP to grow by 6% in 2023, slowing to 2.6% in 2024. The economy performed better than we expected last year, resulting in a positive carry-over effect and raising our 2023 outlook up by 1.7ppts accordingly. But we think qu ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA - Morocco
Analysis by Region - MENA - Morocco The Moroccan economy entered recessionary territory in Q1 2023, as some key sectors took strain amid rising costs and tightening financial conditions. Although agricultural sector growth moved into positive territory in the first quarter of the year and the recove ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Trinidad and Tobago
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Trinidad and Tobago We expect GDP growth in Trinidad and Tobago to ease to 1.6% in 2023 and 1% in 2024, following the post-coronavirus pandemic 9.4% rebound in 2022. Slower growth can be attributed to a less supportive economic environment with persistent infl ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Uganda
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Uganda The latest GDP print confirms that the Ugandan economy grew by 6.3% last year. There was a clear slowdown in economic activity in Q4 2022, with the industrial sector recording an annual contraction, but the resilience of the services sector surprised. W ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Bosnia and Herzegovina
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Bosnia and Herzegovina We have lowered our GDP growth forecasts for Bosnia and Herzegovina by 0.1ppt to 1.1% y/y in 2023 and by 1.3ppts to 3.2% y/y in 2024, reflecting an upside surprise to 2022 GDP and weakness in the eurozone. Both exports to and remittances ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Aruba
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Aruba We have raised our 2023 GDP forecast for Aruba by 4.7ppts to a 0.1% y/y decline as we believe tourism will continue to recover. That said, we expect the economy to contract this year because inflation will erase some of the nominal gains in consumption a ... Read More
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