Category: International Trade
International Trade market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cuba
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cuba We lowered our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Cuba by 1ppt to 2%. Preliminary data flashed a contraction of 1.4% in 2023, implying that economic output is still 10% below pre-pandemic levels. The exodus of nearly 500,000 Cubans in the last two years, shorta ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Tajikistan
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Tajikistan We've nudged down our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Tajikistan by 0.8ppts to 4.3% y/y, to reflect heightened tensions with Russia following the Moscow Crocus City Hall attack. We've also adjusted our inflation forecast after recent data showe ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Dominica
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Dominica We have raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Dominica by 0.1ppt to 2% due to improved tourism conditions. The recovery in tourism flows stemmed from a surge in total visitor expenditure, which reached 87% of the pre-pandemic level by the start of 2024 ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The data released this week signaled the possible start of a course correction for inflation that should keep the Federal Reserve on track to begin rate cuts later this year. The Fed will need to see more than one positive report on inflation before lowering rates, but ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Panama
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Panama We raised our 2024 GDP growth outlook for Panama by 0.1ppt to 2%, substantially below last year's 7.3% and consensus of 2.5%. The loss of steam is largely due to the suspension of operations at Minera Panamá, which will cause exports to plummet ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Paraguay
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Paraguay We have trimmed our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Paraguay by 0.3ppts to 3.7%, in line with consensus but below the 4.7% achieved in 2023. This change reflects a slower-than-anticipated rebound in fixed investment after a downward correction last year, ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bosnia and Herzegovina
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bosnia and Herzegovina After achieving moderate growth of 1.7% in 2023, the economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina will gradually rebound in 2024 and 2025, benefitting from lower inflation and a more favourable economic environment in the rest of Europe. We forecast G ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guadeloupe
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guadeloupe We expect Guadeloupe's real GDP will grow by 2.2% y/y in 2024, supported by strong momentum following the 8.3% y/y surge in activity last year. The Starlink satellite coverage, which is expected to provide the island with high-s ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Belize
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Belize After a slightly stronger-than-expected expansion of 4.7% in 2023, we have increased our 2024 forecast for Belize by 1.2ppts to 3.2% on the back of more favourable base effects and improved Q1 tourist inflow figures. As such, tourism will allow momentum ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Albania
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Albania We have raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Albania by 1.1ppts to 2.9%. The economy has proven resilient to the inflation shock and tighter monetary policy, with a strong finish to 2023 providing a healthy carryover for growth in 2024. Growth will ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - St. Kitts and Nevis
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - St. Kitts and Nevis We trimmed our GDP growth forecasts for St. Kitts and Nevis, by 1.6ppts for 2024 and by 0.9ppts for 2025, as we now expect growth of 3.7% y/y in both years. Government spending commitments, primarily in renewable energy projects, continue to d ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - St. Vincent and the Grenadines We think GDP for St Vincent and the Grenadines will expand by 4.9% this year, 0.8ppts higher than we previously anticipated. Our forecast reflects that tourism growth remains strong and falling inflation will boost spending, resulti ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guyana
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guyana We expect Guyana's 2024 GDP growth to slow to 30.9%, following slightly stronger-than-expected estimate for 2023 of 36.1% growth. We forecast GDP growth to slow to 25.2% in 2025 and cool towards 4% over the medium term as base effects wane and oil prod ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Gabon
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Gabon General Brice Oligui Nguema's coup d'état in August 2023 caused political upheaval but marked a monumental step towards Gabon's democratic renewal. Gen Oligui has solidified his support, leading to increased political stability. The tran ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Taiwan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Taiwan We continue to expect Taiwan’s growth outlook will be supported by the upward trend of the global tech cycle and the surging demand for AI chips. The impact of the recent earthquake on the local economy is likely to be only temporary and will not alter the ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - South Korea
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - South Korea South Korea's GDP grew by 1.3% q/q or 3.4% y/y in Q1, the fastest in nine consecutive quarters, due to the recovery in domestic demand. Investment rebounded by 1.5% q/q and consumption by 0.8% q/q, in total contributing 0.8ppts to growth in t ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bahrain
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bahrain We've revised up our 2024 growth forecast for Bahrain from 1.8% to 1.9% and expect a slight easing to 1.8% in 2025. Last year, GDP growth lost momentum, falling to 1.7% amid challenging global economic circumstances. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Europe - Switzerland
Analysis by Region - Europe - Switzerland We've raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Switzerland by 0.2ppts to 1.4% (or to 1.1% when adjusted for revenues from major sporting events). Although the outlook for this year has improved slightly, our revised forecast is still in line with the expe ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Cambodia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Cambodia We've nudged down our forecasts for Cambodia's GDP growth, to 5.4% from 5.6% for 2023 and to 6.4% from 6.5% for 2024, given that the recovery in tourism fared below our expectations. Although, new export drivers in agricultural products and elect ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sao Tome and Principe
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sao Tome and Principe Real GDP growth is envisaged to expand to 2.5% in 2024, as the island is benefitting from skyrocketing cocoa prices. The price of cocoa began creeping up in the second half of 2022, before rising rapidly in early 2024 to hit a record high ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US Treasury yields climbed steadily throughout this past week as bearish data caused Fed rate cut expectations to shrink, supply pressures weighed, oil prices rose, and technical support levels failed. Three-year through seven-year yields rose more than 25bps as ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Vietnam
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Vietnam We have raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Vietnam by 0.2ppts to 5.2% to reflect a stronger end to 2023 than we'd expected. The external sector is likely to be key to the outlook. We assume some levelling off in export growth after a strong rebou ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - New Zealand
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - New Zealand We have downgraded our 2023 GDP growth forecast for New Zealand by 1.7ppts to 0.3% y/y as large revisions to GDP and weaker than expected activity in Q3 paint a sour picture. The headwinds to households are approaching their peak, so we think the decl ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The resilience of the economy was on full display this week, with the monthly data showing that much of the surprising Q4 GDP strength was backloaded to December, suggesting the economy is entering 2024 on a strong footing. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US Treasury yields were mixed this week, steadying as key support levels held even as the curve steepened. The two-year yield was slightly lower on the week as of mid-Friday afternoon, while yields through the intermediate sector were little changed, and bond yie ... Read More
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