Category: International Trade
International Trade market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Cyprus
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Cyprus We have raised our long-term GDP forecast for Cyprus by incorporating the impact of AI on the economy. We now estimate that GDP will be 1.3% higher by 2050, driven by higher productivity. We continue to project GDP will expand by 3% this year and 1.6% in 2 ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Eswatini
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Eswatini A robust services sector, supported by increased revenues from the Southern African Customs Union (Sacu), yielded an impressive economic growth rate of 4.8% in 2023. In 2024, another year of elevated Sacu revenues and an expansionary fiscal policy are ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Madagascar
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Madagascar High-frequency indicators suggest that economic growth in Madagascar was robust in Q2 2024. The central bank's Indicator of Business Activities (IAE) recorded a 17.2% y/y expansion in the second quarter, primarily driven by improved tertiary sec ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Comoros
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Comoros We forecast real GDP growth in the Comoros to advance to 3.3% in 2024 – a noteworthy improvement on last year's actual economic growth rate of 2.7%. Short- to medium-term economic growth is anticipated to be primarily driven by real investments and ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ecuador
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ecuador Our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Ecuador remains at 0.9%, but we have lowered our projection for 2025 by 0.2ppts to 1.2%. Increased VAT rates and high loan interest rates have negatively affected household consumption and investment, which we expect have ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The Federal Reserve will kick off its rate-cutting cycle at next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, with the only outstanding question being whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps. We think the data only justifies a 25bp cut. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Latvia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Latvia We've cut our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Latvia by 1.2ppts to just 0.6% since our last update in June. We attribute our downward revision primarily to a large growth disappointment in Q2, when the economy shrank by 1.1% q/q, posting the largest contr ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Oman
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Oman We've trimmed our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Oman by 0.1ppt to 1.5% as curbs on oil production continue. We still expect output will be hiked gradually, helping GDP growth to pick up to 2.3% next year. We maintain our 2024 forecast of 2.4% growth in th ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Senegal
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Senegal The Senegalese economy's slow start to the year prompted us to cut our 2024 real GDP growth forecast to 6.5% from our previous estimate of 7.9%. The delayed extraction of benefits from the nascent hydrocarbon industry means that the twin fiscal and ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Guinea
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Guinea Real GDP growth came in above our expectations at 7.1% in 2023, largely driven by robust growth in total fixed investment. We now project the Guinean economy to grow by 5.4% this year, higher than our previous estimate of 4.6%. Given the better-than-exp ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Bahrain
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Bahrain Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2024, increasing by 2.5%, before easing to 1.3% growth in 2025. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Argentina
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Argentina Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2024, falling by 7.7%, picking up to 6.2% growth in 2025. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific We've cut our 2024 GDP growth forecast for New Zealand to just 0.6% from 1.0% to reflect the sustained weakness in GDP growth in H1. Weakness in demand contributed to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision to kick off its cutting cycle in August. We expe ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mali
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mali Mali's real GDP growth stood at 4.7% in 2023, lower than our previous estimate of 5.2%. We expect growth to remain broadly stable at 4.6% this year. According to the landlocked nation's mining ministry, industrial gold production is projected to s ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kazakhstan
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kazakhstan We've left our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Kazakhstan unchanged at 3.9% and bumped up our 2025 forecast to 5.4% from 4.9%. While the planned expansion at the Tengiz oil field should boost growth next year, the main reason for the upgrade is the ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Economic policy uncertainty is rising earlier than normal for a presidential election year, and this has implications for the Q4 growth profile. Because of heightened uncertainty, we will adjust our forecast for Q4 business investment in nonresidential structures and eq ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Morocco
Analysis by Region - Africa - Morocco After keeping the policy interest rate at 3.0% for 15 months, Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) cut the rate by 25 bps to 2.75% in June. The cut was a response to two months of low inflation and a dovish move by the European Central Bank. Our forecast is for inflation to re ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The July Federal Open Market Committee minutes and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole provided another clear signal that the Fed will cut rates in September. We think it would take a large, negative surprise in the labor market data between ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Zimbabwe
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Zimbabwe We expect a marked slowdown in Zimbabwean GDP growth this year and for growth to trend even lower in 2025. The drought has ravaged agricultural output and inadequate dam levels have caused severe electricity disruptions. Meanwhile, the Zimbabwean priv ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Angola
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Angola Economic growth is gaining momentum thanks to improved stability in the oil sector and robust activity in the trade and transport sectors despite soaring inflation. We forecast a moderate expansion in real GDP of 2.9% in 2024 on the back of the upturn i ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sudan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sudan The ceaseless war in Sudan is forecast to trigger the country's seventh consecutive annual economic contraction this year. After about 16 months of war, global governments released condemnation statements and sanctioned individuals and companies related ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Côte d'Ivoire
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Côte d'Ivoire Persistent inflation in Côte d’Ivoire has cast a slight shadow over the CPI outlook. We now forecast inflation to average 3.5% in 2024 (up from our previous forecast in May of 2.8%) while we have lowered our projection for 2025 to 2.1%. Nonethe ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Since the release of the July employment report, financial markets have been focused on the labor market and the implications for Federal Reserve policy, but the other side of the central bank's dual mandate will come back into view during the week ahead. Some of th ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Lithuania
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Lithuania In line with our expectations, real GDP grew by almost 3% y/y in Q1 – Lithuania's strongest quarterly performance in two years – underpinned by a continued robust recovery in private demand and a strong investment performance. Improving sentiment in ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ukraine
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ukraine The severe energy shortages and the intensifying war, accompanied by a new wave of mobilisation, have dampened Ukraine's economic recovery to only 1.1% y/y of GDP growth in June, from 3.7% y/y in May. But due to stronger growth in Q1, GDP reached a de ... Read More
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