Category: International Trade
International Trade market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden
We've kept our near-term GDP forecast for Sweden largely unchanged and expect growth of 2.4% in 2025. We think activity will increase due to household real income gains, easing fiscal and monetary policies, and better external demand. But we see increased uncertainty around global trade protecti ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Argentina
We kept our 2025 GDP growth forecast at 3.6% but lowered it by 0.7ppts to 3.1% for 2026. This adjustment is driven by base effects from the strong rebound in private demand during Q3 2024, along with positive results from high-frequency indicators in Q4 2024, instead of the gradual recovery we antic ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
The data released this week confirmed the economy is still growing at a solid pace and inflation is gradually slowing, in line with our forecast. The big wild card remains the trade and immigration policies of the incoming administration. We will revise our February baseline to be in line with the i ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kenya
We forecast the Kenyan economy to expand by 4.8% in 2025 due to a recovery in the industrial sector and sustained growth in the services sector. Key downside risks to our outlook include fiscal slippages, climate shocks, and delays in investment plans, notably from the US and UAE. Last year, the US ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
We cut our growth forecast for Germany to 0.4% this year, down 0.2ppts. Surveys indicate that the industrial malaise continues, while higher inflation undermines the consumer recovery. The latest industrial activity and retail sales data indicate some upside risks to our forecast of GDP stagnating i ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Egypt
After months of postponement, the fourth review of Egypt’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme is just about in the rear-view mirror. A lack of reforms, especially regarding the thorny issue of subsidies, caused the delays. The press release from the IMF showed that the emphasis is shifting a bit ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States
The economy is doing well, but it will remain a bifurcated one. We forecast real GDP in the US will increase by 2.6% this year and 2.7% in 2026, which we think is around the economy’s short-run potential growth rate. We've raised our projection for real consumer spending growth for this year by ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone
We lowered our eurozone GDP growth forecast for 2025 by 0.1ppt to 1.1%. We expect GDP growth will gradually gain pace over the course of this year and expand by 1.5% in 2026. Risks for the eurozone are on the downside due to domestic and international factors. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Canada
We forecast GDP growth of 1.5% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, unchanged from last month. Looser financial conditions and temporary fiscal stimulus will support the economy in early 2025. But a shrinking population, US tariffs, and trade policy uncertainty will also drag on growth. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal
We've kept our GDP growth forecasts for Portugal broadly unchanged at 1.9% for 2025 and 2.1% for 2026. Surging real disposable incomes and the EU's Recovery and Resilience Facility will support growth. The economy will also benefit from its continued strong tourism activity. But as tourism g ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
We've kept our forecast for GDP growth in Turkey at a below-consensus 1.9%, although we see some upside risk given signs of slightly stronger activity at the turn of the year. The gradual slowdown in consumer spending is continuing according to credit card statistics, and we think the adjustment ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
There wasn’t much not to like in the December employment report and it increases the odds that we may have to remove the March 25bp rate cut by the Federal Reserve from the baseline. This wouldn’t significantly alter the contours of the forecast for GDP, inflation, or the labor market. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain
We have nudged up our forecast for GDP growth in Spain by 0.1ppt to 2.5% to reflect indications that activity remained strong in Q4 despite the floods affecting the Valencia region. Although this marks a slowdown from the estimated 3.1% expansion last year, Spain will remain one of the fastest-growi ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana
Ghana’s economy delivered a strong performance over the first three quarters of last year, expanding by 6.3% on a cumulative basis. Rising gold and oil production bolstered industrial activity over this period, while the ICT and financial sectors ensured robust growth in the services sector. The agr ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mexico
Our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Mexico remains at 1.7%, well above the consensus of 1.0%. This unchanged from last month and slightly above our 1.5% growth estimate for 2024. Risks to our forecast for this year are tilted to the downside, but we believe markets are overly pessimistic about the poss ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Estonia
We forecast GDP growth for Estonia at 2.5% for 2025. We see signs of a recovery this year, but without a swift domestic turnaround it will be weak initially. Estonia's GDP growth was positive again in Q3 2024, but was close to stagnation at 0.03%. This lack of momentum bodes poorly for growth pr ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Uruguay
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Uruguay We trimmed our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Uruguay by 0.1ppts to 2.5%, following an estimated 3.1% expansion this year. The national accounts update for Q3 GDP matched our forecast of 0.7% q/q. But dynamics in demand-side components, along with revisi ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Slovak Republic
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Slovak Republic We estimate the Slovak economy expanded by a solid 2.0% this year, above the eurozone average. But the latest data are less optimistic, with the growth structure becoming increasingly vulnerable. Consumer spending has lost momentum, fixed investme ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Greece
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Greece We forecast GDP for Greece will grow by 2% next year. Domestic demand will likely do the heavy lifting, as we expect gross fixed investments will pick up and private consumption will likely maintain healthy growth. Net exports will support growth marginall ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Slovenia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Slovenia We've lowered our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Slovenia by 0.3ppts to 2.4% due to a weaker finish to this year. We still expect domestic demand will be the main growth engine amid large real income gains by households, easing monetary policy, and EU ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Lithuania
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Lithuania We forecast GDP growth for Lithuania will pick up to 3% next year, supported by a rebound in investment and expansions in the ICT sector. We think consumer spending growth will remain robust at 3% y/y despite heightened inflationary pressures. While GDP ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sri Lanka
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sri Lanka We lifted our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Sri Lanka to 3.8% y/y, 0.1ppts above consensus. President Dissanayake's administration has signalled it will continue the stabilisation plan, and the mini budget includes restrained fiscal spending. Sri ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.6ppts to 2.0%, to reflect another extension by OPEC+ of voluntary oil production cuts. The cartel has announced it will delay unwinding cuts until at least the end of Q1, due to concerns over weak demand. We ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Cyprus
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Cyprus We anticipate Cyprus' GDP growth slowing moderately to 2.7% in 2025, but still significantly above the rest of eurozone. Solid surveys, record-setting tourism numbers, and a strengthening labour market all point toward sustained growth. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Peru
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Peru We cut our GDP growth forecast for Peru in 2025 marginally by 0.1ppt to 2.9% due to an upward revision in historical data for this year. We expect the economy slowed in Q4 after a strong recovery in the previous quarters due to intermittent protests in Oc ... Read More
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