Category: International Trade
International Trade market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Malawi
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Malawi Despite robust tobacco production, we have cut our 2024 real GDP growth forecast further to 1.7% from 2.2%. A myriad of factors is constraining the rest of the agricultural sector, and high inflation and fuel shortages are curbing private consumption gr ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - South Korea
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - South Korea We cut our 2024 GDP growth forecast for South Korea by 0.2ppts to 2.2%, due to disappointing growth in Q3. Although domestic demand recovered slightly, exports contracted, and we think the contribution to growth from net exports has likely peaked. We e ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - China
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - China We've upgraded our 2025 GDP growth forecast for China to 4.4% from 4.1%. This reflects our view that broad policy coordination between monetary and fiscal policy is likely over the next few quarters, which will support growth. This is rare in a non-crisi ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Serbia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Serbia We raised our GDP forecast for 2024 by 0.6ppts to 4.1% in 2024 and left 2025 unchanged at 4%. Better-than-expected GDP data outturns led us to revise our forecast for this year. In 2025, a more favourable carryover effect will offset the slightly softer qu ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Philippines
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Philippines We forecast the Philippines' economy will expand by 5.9% this year, below the government's target (6.0%-7.0%). This reflects a slow improvement in domestic demand and a limited boost to exports from the AI boom. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates We maintain our forecast for the UAE of 4.5% growth in its non-oil economy this year. Plus, we expect its overall GDP will rise to 3.7%. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund upgraded its GDP growth forecasts f ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Indonesia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Indonesia With Prabowo Subianto inaugurated as Indonesia's president on October 20, the country entered a new phase. However, we do not expect a significant shock to our GDP growth forecasts. The baseline remains at 5.1% for this year and 4.9% for 2025. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Thailand
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Thailand We've maintained our GDP growth forecast for Thailand at 2.5% for 2024 and expect a 2.9% expansion next year. Domestic demand momentum will likely remain lacklustre and due to the uncertain global environment, a boost from external demand is unlikely ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iceland
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iceland We forecast Iceland's economy will expand by 2.8% in 2025, accelerating from 0.9% this year. Prospects have improved due to a better demographic outlook. We expect more stubborn inflation, averaging 3.9% next year and 6.0% in 2024, due to its stickine ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Russia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Russia We've cut our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Russia by 0.3ppts to 3.6% to reflect disappointing Q2 national accounts data. Household demand, which propelled growth in H1, is slowing down as the prohibitively high cost of unsubsidised loans and mortgag ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia We've kept our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Croatia at 3.5% but revised down our 2025 GDP forecast by 0.2ppts to 1.8%. Our downgrade reflects the planned large hike in energy prices early next year that will cause real income growth to slow down co ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Switzerland
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Switzerland We maintained our GDP growth forecasts for Switzerland at 1% for this year and 1.5% for 2025, adjusted for revenues from major sporting events. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Colombia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Colombia We kept our GDP growth forecasts for Colombia unchanged at 1.9% for this year and 2.5% for 2025. This is because monthly activity in August declined as we expected, after a hefty rebound in July. We forecast GDP will expand by a moderate 0.5% q/q in Q ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands We forecast the Dutch economy will grow by 0.5% in 2024 and by 1.4% next year, as the impact of monetary policy unwinds and strong wage growth helps drive the recovery in consumption, along with lower inflation. We expect inflation will average 3.4% i ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Taiwan
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Taiwan We expect Taiwan's GDP growth to have moderated to 3% y/y in Q3 from 5.1% in Q2 as a high base effect kicked in and export growth slowed from previous highs. But buoyant capital investment from local manufacturers may lend support to growth in the near ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Long-term interest rates trended higher over the past several weeks but the increase doesn't pose a significant downside risk to our forecast. Some of the increase is attributed to the bond market betting on former President Donald Trump winning the election, sugges ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Hungary
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Hungary We kept our 2024 GDP growth forecast unchanged at 1.5%. The rebound in activity over Q3 has disappointed to date as external environment remains challenging and domestic demand recovery has proven underwhelming. While we keep expecting GDP growth to pi ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Central African Republic
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Central African Republic The Central African Republic (CAR) remains entrenched in a complex web of conflict, regulatory uncertainty, and fuel shortages. Yet, despite all the difficulties, the economy is holding on thanks to a surge in gold prices, a rebound in ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway We lowered our Norway mainland GDP forecast for 2025 by 0.2ppts to 1.1%. Norges Bank's extended tight policy stance will weigh on the pace of the rebound, but recovering consumption and supportive fiscal policy mean quarterly growth should be among the ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cape Verde
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cape Verde Annual economic growth averaged 9.7% y/y in the first half of 2024, with strong performances in the transport (23.3% y/y) and accommodation and food service (37.9% y/y) sectors. However, due to the high base, growth is expected to slow in the year&# ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo Republic
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo Republic Congo's average oil production declined to 259,000 bpd in the first nine months of the year from 275,300 bpd in the same period in 2023. We now project a sharper 4.0% reduction in Congo's average oil output for 2024 (-3.1% estimated prev ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - France
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - France We now expect the French economy will grow by 1.1% in 2024 and slow down to 0.9% in 2025, after trimming our GDP growth forecasts for both years by 0.1ppt. We think industry will likely take slightly longer to rebound, which will weigh on inventories this ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore We've upgraded our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Singapore by 0.7ppts to 3.2%. Our revision reflects the stronger-than-expected Q3 GDP outturn which is likely to drop back in Q4. But risks are tilted to the upside due to buoyant electronics demand. A ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Greece
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Greece In its regular data revision process, ELSTAT revised up both nominal and real GDP for Greece. As a result, nominal GDP data for 2023 is now 2.3% higher than the previous estimate. We'll incorporate the new data into our forecast as soon as the quarterl ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Algeria
Analysis by Region - Africa - Algeria During the past quarter, Algeria's President Abdelmadjid Tebboune won the presidential election by a landslide. He once again repeated some of his very ambitious economic plans in his address to the nation. Given Algeria’s dependency on the hydrocarbon secto ... Read More
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