Category: International Trade
International Trade market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Europe
Analysis by Region - Europe We forecast Turkmenistan's GDP growth will pick up to 4.1% in 2025, an improvement from recent years. Stabilising natural gas prices and stronger-than-expected population growth will be the main growth drivers next year as the economy strengthens from several years of ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Thailand
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Thailand We expect that Thailand's economy will grow by 3% in 2025, following an estimated 2.7% expansion in 2024. Q3 growth data was somewhat better than expected, but we don't think this reflects a permanent rebound in momentum. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Montenegro
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Montenegro We've raised our GDP growth forecasts for Montenegro by 0.2ppts, to 3.8% for 2024 and to 3.2% for next year. We expect solid growth at the tail end of this year as inflation continues to ease and monetary policy loosens. The ongoing Russia-Ukrai ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Taiwan
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Taiwan We expect Taiwan's GDP growth to moderate to 3.2% y/y in 2025 from our estimate of 4.2% growth in 2024. The above-3% growth rate forecast reflects our view that Taiwan's economic fundamentals remain solid, especially considering that local tech comp ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Colombia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Colombia We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Colombia by 0.4ppt to 2.1%. We think the economy will lose momentum by the end of this year due mainly to less carry-over and slower private consumption. Conversely, we expect investment will rebound cons ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Russia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Russia We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Russia by 0.2ppts to 1.6% due to signs that economic activity is losing momentum following the significant monetary policy tightening in the last few months. Household demand, which propelled growth in H1, ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Hungary
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Hungary We cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Hungary by 1.2ppts to 2.1%, following an estimated 0.7% expansion this year. The downward revision was triggered by a negative surprise in Q3 when GDP contracted for the second consecutive quarter. While we expec ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guadeloupe
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guadeloupe We have revised up our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Guadeloupe by 1.7ppts to 2.7%, as growth in tourism continues to drive exports. Although inflation is expected to decline to 1.7% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026, we don't anticipate a strong recovery in ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - South Korea
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - South Korea We kept our 2025 GDP growth forecast for South Korea at 1.9%. Under President Trump, higher investment in the US and a strong US dollar will provide a boost to exports next year. However, economic policy uncertainty will undermine South Korea's inv ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Virgin Islands (US)
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Virgin Islands (US) We upgraded our 2025 GDP forecast for the US Virgin Islands by 1.3ppts to 2.7% y/y. This is to reflect the significant investment and funding of infrastructure that the territory is set to receive in the upcoming year. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bermuda
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bermuda We now forecast real GDP for Bermuda will grow by 4.4% in 2024, and a further 3.7% in 2025. This is close to the emerging markets average of 4.1% for this year and 4.0% for next. Bermuda's mid-year budget review was exceedingly positive, announcing ec ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - North Macedonia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - North Macedonia We have raised our inflation forecast for North Macedonia to 4.2% in 2025 from 2.5%. The North Macedonian government has capped food profit margins to combat rising inflation. We think this policy will take effect at the end of 2024, leading us to ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy We forecast GDP growth for Italy at 0.9% for 2025, a boost from the 0.4% expansion we expect this year. We've recently downgraded our 2024 forecast based on relatively subdued Q3 growth. We project inflation will pick up to average 1.9% next year, as th ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Georgia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Georgia Business sentiment indicators for Georgia have dipped across the board in recent months, with the headline index down 10 points for Q4 2024, suggesting growth may be losing some steam. In 2025 we expect growth to moderate to 3.7%, closer to trend levels, ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Poland by 0.3ppts to 3.3% and trimmed our 2024 estimate by 0.5ppts to 2.7%. Our downward revision for this year is based on soft activity over Q3 with as the economy shrank on the back of weak industry and ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - China
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - China We maintain our 2025 GDP growth forecast for China at 4.4%, based on the latest economic developments and policy expectations. But we've adjusted our 2026-2029 growth forecasts to reflect the impact from the US presidential election. We currently assume ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Vietnam
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Vietnam We expect Vietnam's GDP will grow by 6.7% this year and 6.5% next. Strong industrial production in July and August offset the weakness in September this year despite the impact from Typhoon Yagi. Manufacturing will continue to be the primary engine ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Malaysia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Malaysia We maintain our 2024 GDP forecast for Malaysia at 5.6% and expect growth will slow down to 4.3% in 2025. The strong momentum exhibited through much of this year is unlikely to persist while the low base from a year ago drops out of the comparison. Growin ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belarus
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belarus We've raised our GDP growth forecasts for Belarus, by 1.4ppts to 3.6% y/y for 2024 and by 0.5ppts to 2.0% y/y for 2025. Our revisions reflect an upside surprise in domestic demand and increased exports. Strong momentum in private consumption, owing to ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kyrgyzstan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kyrgyzstan We expect Kyrgyzstan's economy will expand by a solid 3.7% in 2025, building on several years of strong growth. The Russia-Ukraine war has bolstered GDP growth in recent years. But although the conflict will continue to provide some support, the ec ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands We forecast the Dutch economy will grow by 1.3% next year following a 0.9% expansion this year, as the impact of monetary policy unwinds and strong wage growth alongside lower inflation helps drive the recovery in consumption. We expect inflation will ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Papua New Guinea
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Papua New Guinea We now expect Papua New Guinea's GDP to expand by 6.9% in 2025, accelerating from a healthy 4.8% this year. Economic activity in the export-dominated economy will be driven mainly by its extraction sector, with high gold prices and increased ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Morocco
Analysis by Region - Africa - Morocco The Moroccan economy is holding up well. Despite a poor cereal harvest, which has constrained primary sector output, the economy is on track to post real GDP growth of 2.7% this year, thanks to solid performances in the secondary sector (particularly mining) and ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany GDP expanded by 0.2% q/q in Q3, according to a flash estimate aided by private and government consumption, but the overall level of output in earlier quarters was lower due to data revisions. We maintain our call of a 0.1% contraction this year and don ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Moldova
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Moldova Moldova's GDP growth has gathered pace in H2 2024 and will likely pick up further next year, supported by additional EU funding and growing demand in the EU, Moldova's main trading partner. We expect growth will rise to about 3.9% in both 2025 ... Read More
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