Category: International Trade
International Trade market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Denmark
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Denmark We've raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Denmark by 0.8ppts to 2.4%. Growth for Q2 was revised up significantly in the final national accounts data, lifting the annual growth rate for 2024. Strong pharmaceutical and maritime exports meant net tra ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Botswana
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Botswana Botswana’s diamond industry has continued to struggle after a poor start to the year: it contracted by 6.5% q/q in Q2, after a sharp decline of 16.6% q/q in Q1 2024. Recent diamond sales and export data have also revealed a concerning downward trend, ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Namibia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Namibia Following a strong start to the year in Q1, economic growth slowed in Q2 2024 due to weaker mining and agricultural output. Softer demand for Namibia's commodity exports and the devastating local drought took their toll. The outlook for mining is m ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burkina Faso
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burkina Faso Burkina Faso’s fragile security situation has been compounded by persistent challenges, especially related to poor weather conditions and policy uncertainty in the mining sector. However, the surge in gold prices throughout 2024 has provided a sil ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Benin
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Benin Benin’s economy rebounded strongly from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, expanding by 6.6% p.a. over the 2021-2023 period. This impressive performance is set to persist, and we forecast average annual growth of 6.2% for 2024 and 2025. Robust investm ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The September data on consumer and producer prices were mixed, but it doesn't alter our near-term forecast for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25bps at each of its two remaining meetings this year. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cameroon
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cameroon In June, Cameroon's government raised the 2024 budgeted expenditure by 8.0% and revenue by 0.9%. A steady flow of foreign investment in H1 2024 and new loans in Q3 2024 would help local authorities achieve expenditure targets in the current fiscal ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Gambia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Gambia Official GDP figures show that the Gambian economy exceeded expectations last year. Indications are that this year will be no different. The economy grew by 5.3% in 2023, supported by sound performances in the agricultural, telecommunications, and const ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Seychelles
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Seychelles We forecast real GDP growth of 3.1% in 2024 as investments in the information technology sector boost economic activity. While tourism revenue prospects for the short term are improving, tourist arrivals still fall short of pre-pandemic levels. Incr ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Uruguay
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Uruguay We raised our GDP growth forecast for Uruguay by 0.2ppts to 3.1% for 2024, due to data revisions and stronger-than-expected 1.5% q/q growth in Q2. The expansion was largely fueled by the external sector, reflecting historically high exports from a bett ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq We've raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Iraq by 0.6ppts to 2.5%. We mainly attribute our upward revision to the overproduction of oil since January, supported by expansionary fiscal policy. But we've lowered our forecast for 2025 to 2.8% from 3 ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Uzbekistan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Uzbekistan We forecast Uzbekistan's real GDP will grow by 6.4% this year on buoyant fixed investment, robust domestic consumption, and expansionary fiscal policy. The subdued economies of key trading partners like Russia and China and high global inflationary ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Jordan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Jordan We've revised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Jordan to 1.6% down from 2.6% in 2023, underpinned by the ongoing regional conflict. Data for Q1 2024 shows a continued contraction in GDP for the second consecutive quarter on quarterly terms. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Slovak Republic
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Slovak Republic We have maintained our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Slovakia at 2%, as we still expect domestic demand and government spending will drive the expansion. However, we have lowered our growth forecast for 2025 by 0.3ppts to 1.7%, reflecting weaker gr ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sri Lanka
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sri Lanka We've cut our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Sri Lanka by 1.2ppts to 4.5% y/y. Momentum is slowing, and the election result will likely damage business confidence and investment plans. GDP grew 4.7% y/y (1.8% q/q) in Q2, driven by a 1.3ppt contribu ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Malta
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Malta We've trimmed our 2024 GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppts to 3.9% but raised our forecast for next year by the same amount to 4.0%. We estimate the positive impact from generative artificial intelligence will reach around 1.5% of GDP over the long term. We ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Estonia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Estonia Estonia's economy didn't shrink for the first time in more than two years in Q2, which indicates that the years-long recession has likely ended. The stagnation in Q2 and our forecast of soft growth in Q3 and Q4 will likely result in a mild GDP con ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Bangladesh
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Bangladesh We expect Bangladesh's real GDP growth will slow down over FY2024/25 (ending in June 2025) after expanding by an estimated 5.8% in FY2023/24. We've revised down our forecast to a 5.5% expansion, from 6.1% previously. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bulgaria
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bulgaria We estimate that the Bulgarian economy will grow by 2.2% this year and 2.9% next. Receding inflation will sustain real incomes and the delayed impact of tighter monetary policy will gradually wane. We have raised our inflation outlook to 2.6% this year a ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chad
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chad Foreign direct investment in Chad surged by 48% y/y in 2023, largely directed at new oil and gas exploration and infrastructure. However, ongoing legal disputes between existing oil operators and the government, and uncertainty around the new political le ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Slovenia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Slovenia We've cut our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Slovenia by 0.6ppts to 1.4% due to a stagnation in H1. But we've increased our forecast for 2025 by 0.2ppts to 2.7%. We expect domestic demand will be the main growth engine, amid large real income gains ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany Value-added industrial output shrunk again through the first half of 2024. Most of the positive signs cited in our last quarter’s report have either reversed or stalled out: monthly industrial production figures showed steep falls first in May and then ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burundi
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burundi Heavy rains throughout Burundi between January and May this year have caused floods and landslides, leading to widespread displacement of people, infrastructural damage, and poor crop production. Given that over 80% of Burundians are employed in the ag ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Eurozone
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Eurozone We forecast industrial production output to contract approximately 2.1% in 2024, as it appears that the recovery is proceeding at a slower pace than expected. While headline inflation has fallen and the European Central Bank (ECB) has continued its su ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - China
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - China A slightly stronger-than-expected Q2 has lifted our 2024 growth forecast for industrial value-added output to 5.5%. However, the monthly data since have come in largely consistent with our previous forecast: growth has slowed from the highs of 7% y/y at ... Read More
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