Category: International Trade
International Trade market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Haiti
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Haiti We have raised our 2023 GDP forecast for Haiti by 1.9ppts to a 2.4% contraction to reflect progress on structural reforms aimed at ending the political and social crisis. We expect Haiti's economy to be dragged down by private consumption and investm ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The economy is still on sound ground, with consumers willing to spend and businesses continuing to hire and invest despite fears that a recession is around the corner. We maintain our call for a mild recession to begin in Q3 but see a risk that it might start later. Con ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US The front-end through the belly of the curve led Treasury yields higher this past week as traders began to unwind rate cut bets for later this year. Two- through five-year yields were more than 25bps higher on the week as of early Friday afternoon. That is the ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Côte d'Ivoire
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Côte d'Ivoire Real GDP growth of 6.8% was recorded in Côte d’Ivoire last year – a commendable performance considering the tremendous headwinds that the economy faced. Price pressures stemming from the war in Eastern Europe weighed severely on real consume ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US Treasury yields were mostly little changed this week, although front-end yields rose around 5bps, resulting in a slightly flatter curve. Stocks suffered small losses overall, even as the Nasdaq Bank Index and the KBW Bank Index were down more than 4% as of mid ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The April inflation figures released this week provided support for the Fed pausing rate hikes as it confirms rents are now rising at a slower pace than earlier in the year and services inflation excluding shelter - aka "supercore" inflation - eased. Together ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The April employment report underscores that even though the Fed signaled a pause, further increases can't be ruled out if trend job and wage growth don't moderate along with inflation. We think the FOMC will be somewhat patient, however, and are still comfortab ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US Changes in Treasury yields were mixed this week as the curve steepened. The two-year yield was close to 10bps lower as of mid-Friday afternoon, and the 30-year yield was close to 10bps higher as the curve pivoted around the seven- to 10-year sector. The dollar ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Incoming data signal the economy ended the first quarter on a weak note, with consumers less willing to spend, labor market conditions softening, and industrial sector output on a negative track. We believe Q1 will end up being the best quarter this year for the economy ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal We have raised our 2023 GDP growth forecast for Portugal by 0.2ppts to 1.1% to incorporate support from a new package of fiscal measures and signs that the economy started this year on a stronger-than-expected footing. But recent global banking sector wo ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany German industry and construction had a better-than-expected start to the year. And while we expect to see some reversal in that strength, the economy is likely to avoid a technical recession, leading us to raise our 2023 GDP forecast to 0.3% growth (up 0. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States Recent stress in the banking system and tighter lending standards will result in a more severe, but still mild, recession in H2 2023 than we previously anticipated. Though banking stress has eased, the economic costs will be incurred with a lag, and ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Comoros
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Comoros The Comoran economy is set to uphold its modest growth thanks to strong real private consumption, even though the import bill will remain under pressure due to high import prices. Real GDP growth is expected to reach 3.1% in 2023. We anticipate that th ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Pakistan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Pakistan Our Pakistan GDP forecast for FY2023 stands at 2.7% as record-high inflation, food shortages, and a slowdown in industrial output pound the economy. Recent waves of terrorist attacks are adding to the impact of inflation and the food crisis, but the form ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - South Africa
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - South Africa We forecast weak economic growth for South Africa in 2023, amid numerous domestic challenges, chief of which is loadshedding, and global economic headwinds. The incessant power outages are weighing on economic activity and exacerbating price press ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chile
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chile We continue to expect Chile's economy will contract by 1% y/y in 2023. Tighter monetary policy conditions will be one of the driving factors behind the recession we expect to last until Q3 this year. Indeed, the February monthly GDP proxy (IMACEC) fe ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - South Korea
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - South Korea We've downgraded our 2024 GDP growth forecast by 0.7ppts to 2.1% to reflect a more gradual global recovery and maintained our below-consensus 2023 growth forecast at 0.5%. We think South Korea will narrowly avoid a technical recession, but exports ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mexico
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mexico We continue to raise our 2023 GDP growth outlook for Mexico to reflect strong domestic momentum. We now see stronger activity in H1 and have raised our 2023 growth forecast by 0.4ppts to 1.5%, broadly in line with the consensus. However, risks of a slow ... Read More
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Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts
Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts Crude oil prices surged on news that OPEC+ would cut production by over 1mn b/d beginning in May. The supply response from elsewhere will be limited and not enough to offset the reduction. At the same time, our demand outlook is broadl ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone We have raised our 2023 eurozone GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppts to 0.8%. However, we've cut our outlook for 2024 by 0.3ppts to 1% growth as a consequence of the lagged impact from tighter financing conditions. Our base case remains that the eurozone ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa
Analysis by Region - Africa Phase II of the Lesotho Highlands Water Project (LHWP-II) will be the heartbeat of economic growth over 2023-2029, provided that construction targets are met in accordance with the project schedule. We expect that fixed investment will gain traction in the coming months t ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana The first quarter has come and gone, and the Ghanaian government failed to present its case to the Executive Board of the IMF. Accra aimed to wrap up bilateral debt restructuring before the end of Q1 to provide the multilateral organisation with the nece ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Madagascar
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Madagascar Real GDP growth in Madagascar averaged 4.3% p.a. over the 2021-2022 period as the economy rebounded from a 7.1% Covid-19-induced contraction in 2020. That said, the country remains in a fragile state due to the lingering effects of adverse external ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The March jobs report suggests the US labor market is moving into a healthier balance as softer employment growth and cooler wage inflation suggest we're nearing the end of the Fed's rate hiking cycle. But we expect another 25bps rate hike by the Fed in May sinc ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US Treasury yields were less than 10bps lower this past week, led by the belly of the curve. Most of the week's strong early gains were unwound ahead of the weekend though, as yields jumped Friday in response to the solid March nonfarm payrolls report. The do ... Read More
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