Category: International Trade
International Trade market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cameroon
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cameroon In June, Cameroon's government raised the 2024 budgeted expenditure by 8.0% and revenue by 0.9%. A steady flow of foreign investment in H1 2024 and new loans in Q3 2024 would help local authorities achieve expenditure targets in the current fiscal ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Gambia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Gambia Official GDP figures show that the Gambian economy exceeded expectations last year. Indications are that this year will be no different. The economy grew by 5.3% in 2023, supported by sound performances in the agricultural, telecommunications, and const ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Japan
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Japan We've maintained our GDP growth forecasts at 0.2% for this year and 1.1% for next. We still expect the Japanese economy will recover in the following quarters as households' real income gains will drive the improvement in consumption. But exports wil ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Seychelles
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Seychelles We forecast real GDP growth of 3.1% in 2024 as investments in the information technology sector boost economic activity. While tourism revenue prospects for the short term are improving, tourist arrivals still fall short of pre-pandemic levels. Incr ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Uruguay
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Uruguay We raised our GDP growth forecast for Uruguay by 0.2ppts to 3.1% for 2024, due to data revisions and stronger-than-expected 1.5% q/q growth in Q2. The expansion was largely fueled by the external sector, reflecting historically high exports from a bett ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq We've raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Iraq by 0.6ppts to 2.5%. We mainly attribute our upward revision to the overproduction of oil since January, supported by expansionary fiscal policy. But we've lowered our forecast for 2025 to 2.8% from 3 ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Uzbekistan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Uzbekistan We forecast Uzbekistan's real GDP will grow by 6.4% this year on buoyant fixed investment, robust domestic consumption, and expansionary fiscal policy. The subdued economies of key trading partners like Russia and China and high global inflationary ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Jordan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Jordan We've revised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Jordan to 1.6% down from 2.6% in 2023, underpinned by the ongoing regional conflict. Data for Q1 2024 shows a continued contraction in GDP for the second consecutive quarter on quarterly terms. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Slovak Republic
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Slovak Republic We have maintained our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Slovakia at 2%, as we still expect domestic demand and government spending will drive the expansion. However, we have lowered our growth forecast for 2025 by 0.3ppts to 1.7%, reflecting weaker gr ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sri Lanka
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sri Lanka We've cut our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Sri Lanka by 1.2ppts to 4.5% y/y. Momentum is slowing, and the election result will likely damage business confidence and investment plans. GDP grew 4.7% y/y (1.8% q/q) in Q2, driven by a 1.3ppt contribu ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Vietnam
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Vietnam We expect Vietnam's GDP will expand by 5.9% in 2024. Q2 2024's GDP growth print of 6.9% y/y was higher than our projection, as well as that of consensus. The key tailwind continues to be the external sector, with electronics continuing to suppo ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Malta
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Malta We've trimmed our 2024 GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppts to 3.9% but raised our forecast for next year by the same amount to 4.0%. We estimate the positive impact from generative artificial intelligence will reach around 1.5% of GDP over the long term. We ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Estonia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Estonia Estonia's economy didn't shrink for the first time in more than two years in Q2, which indicates that the years-long recession has likely ended. The stagnation in Q2 and our forecast of soft growth in Q3 and Q4 will likely result in a mild GDP con ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Tunisia
Analysis by Region - Africa - Tunisia While the economy is slowly gaining traction, all eyes are now on the presidential election taking place on October 6. On September 2, Tunisia's Higher Independent Electoral Authority (Isie) announced that it was ignoring a court order and rejecting the cand ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Bangladesh
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Bangladesh We expect Bangladesh's real GDP growth will slow down over FY2024/25 (ending in June 2025) after expanding by an estimated 5.8% in FY2023/24. We've revised down our forecast to a 5.5% expansion, from 6.1% previously. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bulgaria
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bulgaria We estimate that the Bulgarian economy will grow by 2.2% this year and 2.9% next. Receding inflation will sustain real incomes and the delayed impact of tighter monetary policy will gradually wane. We have raised our inflation outlook to 2.6% this year a ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chad
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chad Foreign direct investment in Chad surged by 48% y/y in 2023, largely directed at new oil and gas exploration and infrastructure. However, ongoing legal disputes between existing oil operators and the government, and uncertainty around the new political le ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Slovenia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Slovenia We've cut our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Slovenia by 0.6ppts to 1.4% due to a stagnation in H1. But we've increased our forecast for 2025 by 0.2ppts to 2.7%. We expect domestic demand will be the main growth engine, amid large real income gains ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany Value-added industrial output shrunk again through the first half of 2024. Most of the positive signs cited in our last quarter’s report have either reversed or stalled out: monthly industrial production figures showed steep falls first in May and then ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo Real GDP growth in the DRC surprised to the upside last year, with the Congolese economy expanding by a formidable 8.6% during the year. Last year’s growth print was mainly fuelled by another robust performance by the country’s extractive industry. Even ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burundi
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burundi Heavy rains throughout Burundi between January and May this year have caused floods and landslides, leading to widespread displacement of people, infrastructural damage, and poor crop production. Given that over 80% of Burundians are employed in the ag ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Eurozone
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Eurozone We forecast industrial production output to contract approximately 2.1% in 2024, as it appears that the recovery is proceeding at a slower pace than expected. While headline inflation has fallen and the European Central Bank (ECB) has continued its su ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cambodia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cambodia We've kept our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Cambodia at 6.4% y/y. Cambodia will likely see some storms and floods from ongoing typhoons, but will otherwise be relatively unscathed. While real estate will likely continue to struggle, we expect the ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - China
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - China A slightly stronger-than-expected Q2 has lifted our 2024 growth forecast for industrial value-added output to 5.5%. However, the monthly data since have come in largely consistent with our previous forecast: growth has slowed from the highs of 7% y/y at ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mozambique
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mozambique Economic growth has been resilient in H1 2024, mainly reflecting expansions in hydrocarbon production and transport services. In the short term, natural gas production growth will stall due to a lack of new projects coming on stream, while widesprea ... Read More
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