Category: International Trade
International Trade market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belgium
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belgium We forecast the Belgian economy will expand by 1.2% in 2025, after 0.9% growth in 2024, as the impact of monetary policy unwinds and manufacturing recovers. A data revision suggests momentum was not as strong as believed. We expect inflation to average 1. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Tanzania
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Tanzania We forecast the Tanzanian economy to grow by 5.6% in 2025, supported by robust performances in the construction, information and communication technology (ICT), finance, and tourism sectors. An upturn in external and internal investment is driving gro ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Vanuatu
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Vanuatu We've cut our GDP growth forecasts for Vanuatu to 1.4% for 2024 and to 1.6% for 2025. We largely attribute our downgrades to the liquidation of the country's national airline in May, which led to a swathe of flight cancellations and limited travel ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Maldives
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Maldives We forecast the Maldives' economy will grow by a moderate 3.9% in 2025, after expanding by 7.3% this year. Our outlook accounts for the government's plan to reduce public sector investment, particularly in construction, in an effort to contain fi ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Yemen, Rep
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Yemen, Rep We've downgraded our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Yemen to 3.1% from 3.6% as we expect the escalating conflict in the Middle East will cause significant disruptions in Red Sea shipping lines that connect Yemen's key ports. Plus, with households ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kiribati
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kiribati We expect Kiribati's GDP will grow by a modest 0.9% next year, following strong growth of 3% in 2024. The positive growth effects of a 38% rise in public sector wages in 2024 is expected to taper off next year. Kiribati's economic performance con ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Afghanistan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Afghanistan We've slashed our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Afghanistan by 9.3ppts to a meagre 0.4% expansion. Although over 23mn people – more than half of Afghanistan's population – still require humanitarian assistance, the UN has only received 30% of i ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Trinidad and Tobago
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Trinidad and Tobago We forecast GDP growth for Trinidad and Tobago of 2.7% for next year and 2.6% for 2026. This reflects greater capital spending by the government and public wage settlements with unions, helping to lift capital formation and consumption. But du ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Macau, China
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Macau, China We've cut our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Macau by 1.1ppts to a 12.4% expansion and expect growth will moderate further next year. This partly reflects our view of an economic slowdown for mainland China. We forecast Macau's economy will exp ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal We've kept our GDP growth forecasts for Portugal unchanged at 1.9% for both 2025 and 2026. Although growth disappointed slightly in Q3 at 0.2% q/q, we think the overall outlook remains solid. Improving real disposable incomes and the EU's Recover ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Cayman Islands
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Cayman Islands Historical data revisions and a significantly stronger-than-expected demographic outlook led us to raise our short- and medium-term forecasts for the Cayman Islands. We now expect GDP will grow by 1.9% next year before slowing down to 1.6% in 2026. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Haiti
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Haiti We revised our 2024 to 2026 GDP forecasts up for Haiti in light of the arrival of the Multinational Security Support Mission (MSS). It arrived in the middle of this year with the aim of improving the dire security situation in the country. We now expect gro ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Albania
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Albania We have raised our raised 2024 Albania GDP forecast by 0.7ppts to 3.6% and our 2025 forecast by 0.3ppts to 3.5%. This is driven by a strong construction sector – evidenced by rising confidence and strong annual output growth – and a booming tourism sector ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Martinique
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Martinique We forecast 2.3% GDP growth for Martinique in 2024, before it moderates to 1.9% in 2025. The tourism recovery and cruise rebound will propel the economy through the medium term. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Azerbaijan
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Azerbaijan We expect GDP growth will moderate to 2.7% next year, from our upgraded forecast of 4.4% for 2024. Oil production will likely remain on its long-term declining trend. Government investment in the Nagorno-Karabakh region and other priority areas such ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Brunei
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Brunei We maintained our near-term GDP growth forecasts for Brunei at 3.2% in 2024 and 2.7% in 2025, reflecting strong expansions compared to recent years. Oil production rose by 4.0% y/y in Q2, driven by new supply from the Salman offshore oil field. We anticipa ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - East Timor
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - East Timor Given that the Bayu-Undan oil field is close to depletion, headline GDP will likely contract by 5% y/y in 2024, though non-oil GDP should still grow by 3.3%. Assuming that the field runs out by year's end, GDP growth will likely reach 3.9% y/y in 2 ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Tonga
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Tonga We revised our FY2024 – starting 1 July 2024 – GDP forecast for Tonga down by 0.44ppts to 1.81% growth as current activity estimates do not point towards a strong post-disaster and post-Covid rebound. Weak agricultural production is the main drag on growth, ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Honduras
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Honduras We have lowered our 2025 GDP growth for Honduras by 0.7ppts to 3.1% y/y, as we expect negative impacts on confidence, investment, and exports after the Supreme Court ruled ZEDE special economic zones unconstitutional. The zones had increased FDI attra ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Niger
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Niger The 2,000-km Niger-Benin Oil Export Pipeline is anticipated to transform Niger into a significant regional oil producer. Boasting a capacity of 110,000 barrels per day (bpd), the pipeline continues to make headlines – for all the wrong reasons. The pipel ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sierra Leone
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sierra Leone Weak economic institutions, persistent cost-of-living crises, and high susceptibility to external shocks hinder sustained economic growth in Sierra Leone. Nevertheless, easing inflation should bolster government spending and private sector activit ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Bolivia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Bolivia We forecast GDP growth for Bolivia of 2.2% next year, backed by fiscal expenditure and public investment projects. But we've cut our 2024 GDP forecast by 0.6ppts to 1.0% due to the protracted riots and higher inflation weighing on feeble domestic d ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Guatemala
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Guatemala We have upgraded our 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.5ppts to 4.1% y/y largely due to carry-over from stronger growth this year, which we now expect to rise by 1.2ppts to 4.3% y/y. Exports and investment have bounced back strongly after the El Niñ ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Venezuela
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Venezuela Our GDP growth forecasts remain unchanged at 4.0% y/y for 2024 and 3.5% y/y for 2025. The steady recovery in oil production has continued, about in line with our forecast. The country will likely reach 1mn bpd output next year, as foreign oil licence ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Virgin Islands (UK)
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Virgin Islands (UK) We forecast the British Virgin Islands' economy will grow by 1.2% in 2024 and 1.6% in 2025. We've revised up our 2025 GDP forecast to reflect stronger-than-anticipated growth in the tourism sector, partly driven by the robust US econom ... Read More
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