Category: International Trade
International Trade market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Taiwan
We believe it'll be difficult for Taiwan to replicate its spectacular growth from last year. Instead, we forecast growth will moderate to 3.2% y/y in 2025, from 4.3% in 2024. Fundamentally, Taiwan's technology sector will remain the primary driver of growth, which won't only support expo ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Algeria
Algeria's oil output remains below historical levels due to the country’s agreement to cut oil output within the Opec+ group. The group extended cuts through Q1 due to lower-than-expected global oil demand, but it could be even longer if the group again misses its demand forecast for the year. I ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Thailand
Thanks to a pickup in tourism, external goods demand, and relatively robust domestic consumption, economic growth momentum in Thailand accelerated during 2024. In 2025, we forecast the economy to grow by 3% in 2025, following an estimated 2.7% expansion last year. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Indonesia
We expect Indonesia's GDP will grow by 5% y/y in 2025, maintaining its steady growth trajectory. The impact of Donald Trump’s return as US President is likely to be limited, as changes to US fiscal, trade, and immigration policies will take time to materialize. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Oman
We forecast Oman's GDP growth at 2.2% for this year, higher than the 1.5% estimate for 2024. In our 2025 growth outlook, we balance the delayed return to growth in the energy sector with a steady expansion of non-energy output, which we project at 3.0% (up from 2.8% previously). We think activit ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia
We raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Croatia 0.8ppts to 2.6%. Sizeable historical revisions suggest that the economy was aggressively destocking last year. A gradual restocking process as industrial fortunes turn should support a quicker rebound than we expected. Over the next few years, GDP g ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Malaysia
We have lowered our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Malaysia by 0.3ppts to 4.0%, a slowdown from the 5.1% expansion in 2024. The downgrade to this year's projection largely reflects shifting base effects. We expect underlying momentum will remain relatively healthy. Growing inflationary risks and c ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belgium
We forecast the Belgian economy will expand by 1.2% this year, following estimated growth of 1.0% in 2024, as tight monetary policy unwinds and manufacturing recovers. We expect inflation will average 2.0% in 2025, after 3.1% in 2024, thanks to easing underlying inflationary pressures. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy
We continue to forecast Italy's GDP will expand by 0.8% in 2025, a small improvement from the 0.5% expansion we estimate for 2024. We project inflation will average 1.9% this year, up from 1% in 2024, as the contribution from energy inflation will likely increase from the sizeable drop seen in r ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Rwanda
Economic growth in Rwanda will likely lose momentum this year following a surprisingly better performance in 2024. We forecast real GDP to grow by 7.2% in 2025, following an estimated expansion of 8.7% last year. Below-average rainfall is predicted over H1 2025, which could diminish crop harvests wi ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway
We've kept our 2025 GDP growth forecast for mainland Norway at 1.5%. We think loose fiscal policy, softer inflation, and a resilient labour market driving consumption will support a cyclical rebound this year. Norges Bank's rate cuts will feed quickly into financial conditions, although the ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands
We forecast the Dutch economy will grow by 1.3% this year, following a 0.9% expansion in 2024. The impact of tight monetary policy is set to unwind, while strong wage growth alongside lower inflation will help drive the recovery in consumption. We expect inflation will average 2.6% in 2025, down fro ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Austria
We've revised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Austria to 0.5% from 0.9% following still inauspicious sentiment data and lacklustre economic activity from end-2024. This indicates no impending turnaround. Industrial production remains dismal and we don't expect an imminent pickup in activity ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chile
We have nudged up our 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppt to 2.4% y/y after a stronger-than-expected November IMACEC activity print. However, our outlook remains one of weak, yet recovering, domestic demand as the sharpest rises in electricity prices end this month and prospects of a boost to consume ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland
We've nudged up our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Poland by 0.1ppts to 3.3% and kept our 2026 call unchanged at 3.8%. We estimate the economy returned to growth in Q4 2024, though at a modest pace. We expect investment will predominantly drive the pickup in the recovery this year due to the boost ... Read More
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Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts
Oil prices have made a strong start to 2025, reaching a high of $82pb as the Biden administration placed further sanctions on Russia's oil industry. Prices have traded sideways since and the Israel-Hamas ceasefire is weighing on the geopolitical risk premium. The new sanctions put upside risk on ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bulgaria
Our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Bulgaria remains solid at 2.9% – just shy of the 2015-2019 pre-pandemic average of 3.1%. This follows an estimated 2.3% expansion in 2024. The approval of a new coalition government on January 16 put an end to the political stalemate since the snap elections last Oct ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Russia
We've raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Russia by 0.1ppts to 1.7%. We see signs that the economy retained momentum towards the end of 2024, so now expect some of the momentum will carry over into early this year. High budgetary spending in December will also support growth in Q1. But recen ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - France
We continue to forecast France's GDP will grow by 0.8% in 2025, a slowdown from the estimated 1.1% expansion in 2024. GDP growth is expected to have been broadly flat during Q4 2024 and will take time to gain pace in 2025 given that sentiment remains subdued, making up for a weak start of the ye ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Finland
We kept our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Finland largely unchanged at 1.4%. We think cyclical tailwinds in the form of real income gains, lower interest rates, and stronger external demand will support growth this year. Key risks relate to the extent to which households spend or save real income gai ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Global EM
November activity data indicated economic activity in Brazil slowed significantly at the end of 2024, reinforcing our below-consensus GDP growth forecast of 1.8% for 2025. Monthly contractions in hard data indicators such as real retail sales, services revenue volumes, and industrial production sugg ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Kingdom
We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for the UK by 0.3ppts to 1.1% in response to unfavourable historical revisions and a run of softer monthly data. Though inflation is likely to average 3% this year, we think markets are too hawkish on the outlook for monetary policy and we still expect the ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ireland
We forecast Ireland's GDP will grow by 4.0% this year and 3.5% in 2026, after contracting by 0.2% in 2024. Irish GDP rebounded by 3.5% q/q in Q3. We think this is the start of a recovery after five declines in the previous six quarters. But this isn't guaranteed given persistent data distort ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Denmark
We've raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Denmark by 0.3ppts to 2.4%. Recovering non-pharma manufacturing driven by a steady restocking process will likely keep growth elevated despite the slowdown in pharmaceutical production. Recovering consumer purchasing power as inflation remains below ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - South Africa
Economic conditions are mixed and modest positive momentum remains the order of the day. We have left South Africa's 2025 real GDP growth forecast unchanged at 1.5%, more than double the 2024 estimate of 0.7%. ... Read More
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