Category: International Trade
International Trade market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Tonga
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Tonga We revised our FY2024 – starting 1 July 2024 – GDP forecast for Tonga down by 0.44ppts to 1.81% growth as current activity estimates do not point towards a strong post-disaster and post-Covid rebound. Weak agricultural production is the main drag on growth, ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Niger
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Niger The 2,000-km Niger-Benin Oil Export Pipeline is anticipated to transform Niger into a significant regional oil producer. Boasting a capacity of 110,000 barrels per day (bpd), the pipeline continues to make headlines – for all the wrong reasons. The pipel ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sierra Leone
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sierra Leone Weak economic institutions, persistent cost-of-living crises, and high susceptibility to external shocks hinder sustained economic growth in Sierra Leone. Nevertheless, easing inflation should bolster government spending and private sector activit ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Bolivia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Bolivia We forecast GDP growth for Bolivia of 2.2% next year, backed by fiscal expenditure and public investment projects. But we've cut our 2024 GDP forecast by 0.6ppts to 1.0% due to the protracted riots and higher inflation weighing on feeble domestic d ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Venezuela
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Venezuela Our GDP growth forecasts remain unchanged at 4.0% y/y for 2024 and 3.5% y/y for 2025. The steady recovery in oil production has continued, about in line with our forecast. The country will likely reach 1mn bpd output next year, as foreign oil licence ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Guatemala
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Guatemala We have upgraded our 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.5ppts to 4.1% y/y largely due to carry-over from stronger growth this year, which we now expect to rise by 1.2ppts to 4.3% y/y. Exports and investment have bounced back strongly after the El Niñ ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Virgin Islands (UK)
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Virgin Islands (UK) We forecast the British Virgin Islands' economy will grow by 1.2% in 2024 and 1.6% in 2025. We've revised up our 2025 GDP forecast to reflect stronger-than-anticipated growth in the tourism sector, partly driven by the robust US econom ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nicaragua
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nicaragua We’ve raised our GDP growth forecast for Nicaragua by 0.8 ppts to 3.2% for this year, but we’ve cut our 2025 projection by 0.6 ppts to 1.6%. We expect that private consumption and investment will drive the economic slowdown next year amid slowing dow ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Equatorial Guinea
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Equatorial Guinea The hydrocarbon sector continues its multi-year slide: oil output in Equatorial Guinea dropped to 58,600 barrels per day (bpd) in 2023 from 77,000 bpd in 2022. This is a far cry from the 256,000 bpd recorded in 2012 and well below the long-te ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Dominican Republic
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Dominican Republic We’ve raised our GDP growth forecasts for the Dominican Republic to 4.9% from 4.6% for this year and to 5.0% from 4.9% for 2025. We believe that most of the factors driving the recovery this year will continue to contribute to growth next ye ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Pakistan
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Pakistan We lifted our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Pakistan slightly this year, reflecting a stronger Q1 historical estimate. Agricultural-sector prospects are promising, and there is room for recovery in the industry and services subsectors. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Jamaica
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Jamaica We've revised down our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Jamaica slightly to 2.0% from 2.1% but we maintain our forecast of 2.1% growth for 2025. We think the slowdown in domestic consumption and external demand, and the only modest recovery in investme ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - El Salvador
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - El Salvador We’ve cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for El Salvador by 0.1 ppt to 1.9%. President Bukele's plan to reduce expenditures through layoffs and decreased transfers will weigh on household expenditures and government consumption next year. Althoug ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa
Analysis by Region - Africa Ethiopia has made rapid progress on policy reforms over the past three months. Adopting a market-determined FX regime and loosening restrictions on the current account unlocked a four-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) on July 29. Authorities accessed a second-tranche di ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Qatar
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Qatar We've kept our GDP growth forecasts for Qatar broadly unchanged at 1.9% for this year and 2.7% for 2025. Our projections reflect the limited improvement in industrial performance so far. But we think non-energy sector growth will remain robust, at 2.4% ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Saudi Arabia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Saudi Arabia Preliminary Q3 estimates for Saudi GDP growth come in line with our expectations at 2.8% y/y, up from the fall of 0.3% last quarter. Diversification are bolstering non-oil sector performance, which we see as a key driver for growth against a backdrop ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Polls have shifted in favor of Republicans in recent days. Former President Donald Trump is leading in just enough battleground states to win the Electoral College. Key Senate races where Democrats are defending their seats have tightened, and House Democrats are no lon ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Hong Kong SAR
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Hong Kong SAR We pencil in significant downside risks to our current 3% y/y forecast, given external demand has been weaker than expected. Q3 GDP contracted on a sequential, seasonally adjusted basis in line with our expectations, but base effects meant that GDP g ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Malaysia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Malaysia The Malaysian economy continues to confound our and consensus expectations. We've raised our 2024 growth forecast by 1.1ppts to 5.6% given healthy Q3 GDP data, but we expect a slowdown to 4.3% in 2025 as the low base from a year ago drops out of the ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Romania
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Romania We've cut our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Romania to 1.3%, due to historical data revisions. Although domestic demand remains solid, the economy's weak supply-side has been unable to keep pace, resulting in a large drag from net trade. With th ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ukraine
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ukraine We still expect the Ukrainian economy will grow by 3.7% y/y this year and 3.6% next, as the war with Russia is set to last through most of 2025. As conflict intensifies and attacks on energy infrastructure have destroyed about half of generation capaci ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait We recalibrated our measurement scopes for Kuwait's oil and non-oil activities to be more aligned with the official data release. As a result, we've revised our 2024 GDP growth forecast down to a 1.9% contraction from 0.5% previously. We attribute ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Israel
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Israel In early October, Iran's direct attack on Israel spread fears that Israel would respond in kind and target Iran's oil infrastructure, leading to spikes for oil and natural gas prices and a depreciation of the shekel, but Israel's restrained ret ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chile
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chile We maintain our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Chile at 2.5% y/y but have lowered our 2025 growth forecast by 0.1ppt to 2.8% y/y, 0.5ppts above the consensus. This comes due to a slightly weaker end-of-2024 outlook which carries over into 2025 figures, but ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Lesotho
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Lesotho Lesotho’s economic growth disappointed in H1 2024, mainly due to weaknesses in the retail and public administration subsectors. Conversely, the construction subsector showed strong annual growth, boosted by phase two of the Lesotho Highlands Water Proj ... Read More
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