Category: International Trade
International Trade market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - MENA
Analysis by Region - MENA We've cut our 2024 GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppts to a 2.0% contraction, and expect a 2.6% expansion next year. Our revision reflects an extension by OPEC+ of the voluntary oil production cuts until at least January due to concerns over weak demand. We expect the cuts w ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bahamas, The
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bahamas, The We expect real GDP growth for the Bahamas will cool to 1.7% in 2025 from 2.1% this year. This fall in growth reflects the convergence of the economy towards its medium-term potential. Consistent with this view, we forecast inflation will settle at 2% ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Angola
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Angola Following buoyant growth in H1 2024, we expect the Angolan economy to cool moderately in H2 2024 and 2025 due to a slower expansion in the oil sector, widespread drought in the southeast, and intermittent foreign exchange shortages. Elevated inflation a ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets We've nudged up our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Kosovo by 0.2ppts to 3.9%. This reflects our view that private consumption is gaining momentum as inflation falls faster than we anticipated. With interest rates falling and inflation cooling, we anticipate a ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chile
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chile We have lowered our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Chile by 0.2ppts to 2.6% y/y as a result of slower-than-expected momentum in H2 2024. September's IMACEC monthly activity print was well below our expectation, and subsequent Q3 national accounts confi ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Barbados
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Barbados We've raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Barbados by 0.2ppts to 3.4% and expect growth of 2.8% for 2025. We think significant increases in long-stay visitor arrivals, as well as major construction projects, will sustain growth for the rest of th ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guyana
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guyana We have cut our GDP growth forecasts for Guyana by 2.7ppts to 22.5% in 2025 and by 2.9ppts to 14.2% in 2026 to reflect a more bearish outlook for global oil prices. In the medium term, we forecast a sustained period of 4% growth given waning base effects a ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Anguilla
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Anguilla We have marginally revised up our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Anguilla by 0.1ppt to 4.7% y/y. Tourism continues to drive growth, alongside the exponential increase in demand for the country's domain name '.ai' and the anticipated gradual imp ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Antigua and Barbuda
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Antigua and Barbuda We have cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Antigua and Barbuda by 1.4ppts to 2.8% y/y. We think the momentum from the post-pandemic recovery in tourism numbers will subside and growth levels will be closer to the economy's long-run poten ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Syrian Arab Republic
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Syrian Arab Republic We've lowered our estimate for Syria's GDP in 2024 by 0.5ppts to a 1.8% y/y contraction. The downward revision reflects inflation rates that continue to soar above expectations, persistent currency depreciation, spillovers from the wi ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Israel
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Israel The shekel strengthened by 1.5% against the dollar following the ceasefire announcement between Israel and Hezbollah, and markets expect the conflict will wind down early next year. We still forecast the war will likely end in H1 2025, but recognise this c ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Oman
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Oman We nudged our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Oman down by 0.1ppt, to 2.2%, which is an improvement on the 1.5% expansion we expect this year. Growth continues to be driven by non-energy sectors, after a strong pickup of 4.6% in H1, despite a deeply negative co ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic We've lowered our 2024 Czech GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppts to 1.0% on the back of a slightly weaker outturn in Q3. The economy is trundling along at a modest growth pace, failing to pick up momentum. But we expect growth will strengthen to 2.8 ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for the United Arab Emirates to 4.5% from 5.0%. Our downgrade is entirely due to OPEC+ policy. The cartel has delayed a planned supply increase until early next year in reaction to the weak oil deman ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Armenia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Armenia We estimate 2024 GDP growth of 6.8% for Armenia and project growth will slow to 3.4% in 2025. Growth in 2024 has been broad-based, as all main domestic demand components have increased. In 2025, the key contributors to growth will be narrower, mainly d ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Zimbabwe
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Zimbabwe The recent El Niño-induced drought has heightened the demand for food imports, worsening the balance of payments and depleting foreign exchange reserves. Disaster relief efforts have further strained fiscal spending, adding to pressure on the cur ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Grenada
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Grenada We have cut our 2025 growth forecast for Grenada by 0.4ppts to 3.7%. We think this summer's Hurricane Beryl, which wrecked infrastructure and housing in the northern islands of Carriacou and Petit Martinique, will leave a lasting mark on the supply si ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Indonesia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Indonesia We expect the Indonesian economy will grow by 5.0% both this year and next. Indonesia's GDP grew by 5.0% y/y in Q3, maintaining a similar pace to Q2. We expect private consumption – a key driver of growth – will remain resilient. Plus, year-end s ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Japan
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Japan We've adopted our "limited Trump scenario" as our baseline outlook for Japan. We've upgraded our GDP growth outlooks by 0.1ppt to 0.7% in 2026 and 0.6% in 2027 due to better export prospects. We believe the benefits generated by a stronger ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - France
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - France We've left our GDP growth forecast for France unchanged at 1.1% for 2024. But we've cut our 2025 projection by 0.1ppts to 0.8% as GDP figures for Q3 2024 were a bit less favourable than we expected, resulting in a weaker carryover. Plus, deteriorat ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore We've nudged up our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Singapore by 0.6ppts to 3.8% following an upward revision of Q3 GDP data. We maintain our view that economic momentum will drop back from Q4. But buoyant electronics demand suggests the pace of growth ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway We've raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for mainland Norway by 0.4ppts to 1.5%. Our modelling of the impacts of the government's expansionary 2025 budget suggests a stronger-than-expected fiscal impulse totalling 0.7ppts next year. This will make ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Luxembourg
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Luxembourg We've upgraded our GDP growth forecast for Luxembourg to 1.4% for this year and revised down our 2025 forecast to 2.5%. In Q2, GDP expanded by 0.6% q/q and data revisions show a 0.7% q/q uptick in Q1. Luxembourg's economy is set to outpace grow ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Switzerland
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Switzerland We've maintained our GDP growth forecast for Switzerland at 1.0% for this year and 1.5% for 2025 (adjusted for revenues from major sporting events). ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Philippines
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Philippines We expect the Philippines' GDP will grow by 6.2% in 2025, following a 5.8% expansion in 2024, reflecting a gradual improvement in domestic demand. While some pickup in consumer durable goods imports over the last two months suggested consumer c ... Read More
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