Category: International Trade
International Trade market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Latin America - Brazil
Analysis by Region - Latin America - Brazil Brazil's economy recovered at a faster pace than we had expected in Q4 2021, putting it in a strong position to benefit from the added boost to terms of trade coming from the surge in commodity prices since the war in Ukraine started. As a result, we h ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - China
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - China After a better-than-expected start to the year, recent Omicron outbreaks will undermine China's economic recovery, in addition to the ongoing real estate downturn. While China's economy will be less impacted by the Russia-Ukraine war than Europe and ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Philippines
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Philippines We have raised our Q1 GDP growth forecast for the Philippines as restrictions imposed during the Omicron wave in January proved to be of shorter duration than expected and mobility has picked up sharply. That said, headwinds are mounting as a result o ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ireland
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ireland A 5.4% q/q fall in Irish GDP in Q4 2021 was surprisingly weak. But the drop was driven by a surge in intellectual property imports by multinationals, exaggerating the underlying weakness. A spike in Q4 imports is likely to reverse, causing GDP growth to r ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands We expect Russia's invasion of Ukraine to mean energy prices will stay higher for longer, pushing up Dutch inflation further and weakening growth. We have raised our inflation forecast to 5.7% for this year (from 5.1% last month) and 1.1% in 2023. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia Croatia's economy bounced back briskly from the pandemic in 2021 despite ending the year with a slight GDP contraction. Looking ahead to this year, though, we expect growth to slow considerably from 10% in 2021 to 2.6% in 2022, down from our previo ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Europe
Analysis by Region - Europe Ukraine's economy has likely contracted by about 40%-45% in the one month since Russia's invasion compared to pre-crisis levels. Our forecast for the rest of the year depends crucially on how long the fighting will last. Judging by Russia’s stalled offensive, we b ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - South Africa
Analysis by Region - Africa - South Africa South Africa's real GDP growth of 1.2% q-o-q in Q4 was lower than the consensus forecast of 1.3% q-o-q, and higher than our expectation of a 1.1% q-o-q expansion. The latest increase means that annual real GDP rose by 4.9% in 2021 following a contractio ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana Ghana's post-pandemic economic activity steadily gathered impetus last year with annual real GDP growth accelerating as the year progressed. Consequently, we estimate that real economic growth reached 4.6% in 2021. The country's prospects for 202 ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bulgaria
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bulgaria The outlook has changed significantly for the worse, so we have revised our growth and inflation forecasts sharply. We now see Bulgarian GDP advancing 2.9% in 2022, 0.7pp down from a month ago, and 3.9% in 2023. As for inflation, we have raised our call ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mozambique
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mozambique We expect the commodity price shock caused by the Russia-Ukraine war will bolster exports and government revenues, which will offset the impact of higher import prices on inflation and consumer spending. The benefit to GDP will be limited though, as ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa
Analysis by Region - Africa While economic activity was bolstered by the non-oil sectors in 2021, and real GDP expanded by 3.6%, improvements in the oil sector are expected to sustain a strong economic performance in 2022. Elevated oil prices should bolster the hydrocarbons sector, and these benefit ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone This week, we finally received business and consumer surveys for March, the first to be released since Russia invaded Ukraine. Unsurprisingly, the drop was widespread. The PMIs surprised with their relative resilience, recording only a small fall, but other survey ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Tunisia
Analysis by Region - Africa - Tunisia Russia's invasion of Ukraine could impact the Tunisian economy through three channels: food, fuel, and tourism. This presents tangible risks to the North African country's economic growth and led us to lower our growth forecast for 2022 from 3.4% to 2.0%. Tunisi ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Following an uncertain start to 2022 due to the Omicron wave of the pandemic, emerging markets (EMs) face new headwinds stemming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The impact on growth will be dramatic in Russia and Ukraine, significant in emerging Europe, ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Switzerland
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Rising and broadening inflation pressures are pushing Fed Chair Pro Tempore Powell and his fellow FOMC members into a more hawkish stance. With inflation set to run even hotter than current readings, policymakers have a difficult job before them as they try to bring dow ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Senegal
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Senegal External balances are set to deteriorate considerably this year and price inflation has already reached extraordinary levels. Higher food and fuel prices will exacerbate underlying inflationary trends that were present before the conflict in Ukraine. G ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Lithuania
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Lithuania We have cut our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 1.9% from 3.0% in December due to the fallout from the war in Ukraine. The impact will be felt mainly via high commodity prices, slowdowns in trading partners and the effect of sanctions on Russia and Belarus, ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Latin America
Analysis by Region - Latin America Surging energy commodity prices have greatly supported Colombian assets. The Colombian peso (COP) has appreciated by about 4% against the US dollar so far in March, but we think recent local gains will be short lived. We see the outcome of the recent legislative el ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Zimbabwe
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Zimbabwe Business activity generally improved in Q3 2021. According to the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ), this was due to a stable macroeconomic environment coupled with the easing of Covid-19 restrictions. Official estimates show that agricultural sector gro ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America
Analysis by Region - North America The Canadian economy weathered the Omicron wave better than expected, but new headwinds have emerged that will boost inflation and slow growth. Accordingly, we have lowered our GDP growth forecasts by 0.3ppts to 3.9% in 2022 and 0.6ppts to 2.5% in 2023. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy We expect Russia's invasion of Ukraine will cause energy prices to stay higher for longer, pushing up Italian inflation further to average 5.8% this year. We have also cut our 2022 GDP growth forecast by 1ppt to 2.9%. Moreover, the speed at which events are ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Qatar
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Qatar We leave our 2022 GDP growth forecast for Qatar unchanged at 3.6% for now, which reflects our view that the unfolding conflict in Ukraine has a limited impact on the outlook. Although sentiment may suffer in the short term if uncertainty persists and price ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Taiwan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Taiwan We expect Russia's invasion of Ukraine will cause commodity prices to stay higher for longer, pushing up inflation further and weakening growth given Taiwan's exposed position in global trade. We have therefore cut our 2022 GDP growth forecast by 0.4ppts t ... Read More
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