Category: International Trade
International Trade market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Country Economic Forecasts - Argentina
Country Economic Forecasts - Argentina Argentina’s GDP grew by 10.3% in 2021, backed by strength in retail trade and manufacturing. Output is almost 5% above its pre-pandemic level and inflation is mounting, so we maintain our view that the economy might be overheating and expect GDP growth to slow ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic
Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic We currently maintain our GDP growth forecast at 3.4% this year as the Czech economy has emerged from the Omicron wave in line with our assumptions. However, we are likely to cut our forecast in light of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has pushed up ... Read More
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Weekly Economic Briefings - Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
Weekly Economic Briefings - Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing With Russia now intent on installing a puppet government in Ukraine, we have moved our global baseline in line with our scenario for a full-scale invasion. Equity returns around previous geopolitical events are mostly comforting f ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Thailand
Country Economic Forecasts - Thailand We have lowered our GDP growth forecasts to 4.9% in 2022 and 6.6% in 2023, as we now see higher inflation squeezing real household incomes and dampening the recovery in domestic demand. The recent conflict between Russia and Ukraine will also likely lead to lowe ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Taiwan
Country Economic Forecasts - Taiwan Taiwan’s GDP rose 1.9% q/q seasonally adjusted in Q4 2021 after a rise of 1% in Q3, according to revised national account numbers. This brings the 2021 rate to 6.5%, slightly above our forecast. While growth will be less rapid in 2022, we project the economy will ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait
Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait Kuwait has announced that it will ease most Covid restrictions including the ban on foreign travel and testing requirements for those who are fully vaccinated. Authorities have also eased restrictions for those without a vaccine, allowing them to enter shopping ma ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates
Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates Recovery in the UAE remains on a firm footing with the PMI for the non-oil sector at 54.1 in January, only slightly down from December despite Omicron concerns. The survey also showed that employment rose for the eighth consecutive month. The resilie ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Brazil
Country Economic Forecasts - Brazil Brazil’s economy ended 2021 on a stronger footing than we expected. GDP returned to growth in the final two months of the year, even as supply shortages were still hitting manufacturers. While any upside surprise in Q4 would mechanically raise our current forecast ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Norway
Country Economic Forecasts - Norway We have raised our mainland 2022 GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppt to 4.3%, following the full release of the 2021 national accounts. The mainland economy expanded by 1.3% q/q in Q4 despite a 0.4% m/m contraction in December due to the reimposition of Covid containmen ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands
Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands The Dutch economy has weathered the lockdown that started in November much better than expected. GDP grew by 0.9% q/q in Q4, significantly higher than our above-consensus call. As a result of this and the lifting of nearly all containment measures by end-Febr ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Colombia
Country Economic Forecasts - Colombia National accounts data indicate that GDP grew by 10.6% in 2021, leaving a strong 5.3% carry-over into 2022. Domestic demand surpassed its pre-pandemic trend, implying that the economy is overheating and cannot sustain this pace of growth much longer. We expect t ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Uganda
Country Economic Forecasts - Uganda The Uganda Bureau of Statistics reported that economic growth in Q3 2021 slowed down to 3.8% y-o-y after an expansion of 12.9% y-o-y in Q2 2021, the latter having been supported by base effects. Leading indicators point towards a stronger Q4, with momentum spillin ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Ireland
Country Economic Forecasts - Ireland The lifting of most Covid restrictions in January looks to have boosted Irish economic activity. We stick with our forecast that GDP will grow by 3.8% this year, before moderating to around 2% in 2023. And while cost pressures facing firms stayed very elevated, t ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - India
Country Economic Forecasts - India We have lowered our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 7.7% from 7.9%, while raising the inflation forecast to 6.3% from 5.8%. The forecast changes reflect the significant upward revision to our global oil price forecast to $86pb from $73pb at the start of the year, as we ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Belgium
Country Economic Forecasts - Belgium The outlook for Q1 is brighter thanks to an improvement in the health situation. For 2022, now we see GDP posting solid growth throughout the year, expanding 3.0% overall. For the years ahead, we expect growth to normalise and hover around 1.5% in 2023-25 after t ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Cote D Ivoire
Country Economic Forecasts - Cote D Ivoire Based on preliminary data, the Ivorian economy expanded by a remarkable 6.5% last year. This flourishing growth was mainly driven by rebounding activity in the industrial and services sectors, while the agricultural sector delivered another solid, albeit le ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Malawi
Country Economic Forecasts - Malawi Economic growth accelerated to 5.4% in 2019 but tumbled to a revised 0.9% in 2020 due to the devastation caused by Covid-19. A lacklustre vaccination programme, which kicked off in March 2021, is hampering efforts to restart the economy. We expect real GDP growth ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - China
Country Economic Forecasts - China Recent data on Chinese New Year holiday spending suggest a mixed picture for consumption momentum. We think the real estate downturn and weak household consumption due to zero-Covid tolerance will likely persist through H1. While we think fixed investment in real e ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Switzerland
Country Economic Forecasts - Switzerland High energy prices are weighing on activity in Switzerland, albeit to a lesser extent than in other countries. Indeed, we have raised our GDP growth forecast slightly, to 3.2% from 3.1%. The key driver of the upward revision is the surprisingly fast and far-r ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden
Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden We have raised our full year 2022 GDP growth forecast to 3.6% from 3.3% previously, due to the especially strong flash estimate for Q4 2021. The Omicron wave has probably peaked and has been mild overall, with restrictions largely abolished. However, we expect inf ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - France
Country Economic Forecasts - France High-frequency data and surveys confirm that the economy cooled markedly in January as new restrictions and voluntary social distancing weighed on consumption. However, as the peak of infections has now passed, restrictions will soon start to be eased. Although we ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Greece
Country Economic Forecasts - Greece Greek GDP is now forecast to grow 3.3% in 2022, down from 3.8% seen last month, with activity threatened by renewed Covid infections and rising inflation but still supported by EU funds and related projects. The economy experienced a steady recovery during 2021, w ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Denmark
Country Economic Forecasts - Denmark GDP surprised to the upside in Q4 2021 with 1.1% q/q growth, according to the flash estimate. The positive carryover effect has raised our 2022 GDP growth forecast by 0.4ppts to 3.4%. All domestic restrictions were eased at the end of January, in line with our vi ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Nigeria
Country Economic Forecasts - Nigeria Recoveries in both the oil and non-oil sectors continued into the new year, with rising oil output and industrial production in January giving reasons to be optimistic. Overall, real GDP growth is forecast to increase from 2.9% in 2021 to 3.7% in 2022. Neverthele ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Morocco
Country Economic Forecasts - Morocco The economy successfully emerged from the crisis in 2021, with output levels recovering to pre-pandemic levels − largely supported by a bumper cereal harvest. While the non-agricultural sector also expanded, the sector came in just below its pre-pandemic level. G ... Read More
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