Category: International Trade
International Trade market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Romania
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Romania Economic growth in Q4 2021 has been revised to a 0.1% q/q contraction from a 0.5% q/q decline previously. Following downward revisions to previous quarters in 2021, GDP growth has been revised down to 5.8% from 6.1% last month. All Covid containment re ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq We have lowered our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 4.4% from 4.8% previously, owing to higher inflation and a rise in social unrest, domestic political fragmentation, and violence after US withdrawal from the country. This recovery, led by higher oil prices and ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Denmark
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Denmark We have lowered our Danish 2022 GDP growth forecast by 0.5pts to 2.9%, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its impact on global commodity prices are set to raise inflation to levels not seen since the 1980's. This will primarily impact consumers, who are l ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden We have lowered Sweden's growth for this year to 3.1% from 3.6% previously due to the fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The main channel will be from higher inflation, weighing on disposable incomes and private consumption. Input shortages, which ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo The economy has benefitted from a strong rise in copper and cobalt prices, the country's two main export commodities. The increase in the prices of these commodities has benefitted the extractive sector, while a recovery in the non-extractive sector also ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Finland
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Finland We have lowered our GDP growth forecast for Finland this year to 1.7% from 2.3% previously due to its high exposure to the fall-out from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. As well as inflation being higher for longer, which will squeeze real incomes and dent c ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom Though the MPC raised Bank Rate for the third successive meeting, March's minutes revealed a clear change in tone. Growing concerns about the downside risks to growth from high inflation mean that we think another 25bps hike in the UK policy rate in May will ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone The war between Russia and Ukraine continues to dominate headlines and financial markets. The daily news flow coming out of the region is causing large swings in energy prices and European equity markets, as investors move back and forth from optimism to pessimism ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Russia's invasion of Ukraine is reverberating throughout the global economy, but nowhere is the impact as great as in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. In addition to surging energy prices, CEE economies will be hurt by renewed supply short ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - South Korea
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - South Korea We have cut our GDP growth forecasts by 0.3ppts to 2.8% in 2022 and by 0.1ppt to 2.8% in 2023 to reflect the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war. While South Korea has limited direct trade links to Russia and Ukraine, the war has led to higher commodity ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Greece
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Greece We have lowered our Greek GDP call for 2022, with growth now forecast at 3.0%, down 0.3pp from last month as the outlook has deteriorated due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This follows solid 7.9% expansion in 2021. Although the national accounts show ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Indonesia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Indonesia We have significantly downgraded our 2023 GDP growth forecast for Indonesia by 0.8ppts to 5.7% from our February baseline. This mainly reflects a slower domestic demand recovery from Q2 onwards with the Russia-Ukraine war resulting in higher global ener ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Australia
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Australia Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2022, increasing by 1.6%, picking up to 2.6% growth in 2023. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belgium
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belgium The outlook has changed significantly for the worse, so we have revised our growth and inflation forecasts sharply. We now see Belgian GDP advancing 2.5% in 2022, 0.5pp down from a month ago, and 1.5% in 2023. As for inflation, we have raised our call for ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Russia
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Russia Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to decline less than economic growth in 2022, falling by 0.4%, picking up to 0.5% growth in 2023. ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Malta
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Malta Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2022, increasing by 1.8%, picking up to 2.3% growth in 2023. ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Argentina
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Argentina Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2022, increasing by 2.2%, before easing to 1.5% growth in 2023. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany The Russian invasion of Ukraine will materially undermine this year's recovery. The headwinds will primarily come via higher energy prices that will heavily curtail consumers' real incomes and the rebound in spending. New supply disruptions are also set t ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India We have lowered our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 7.3% from 7.7% last month and our 2023 forecast to 5.8% from 6.9%. These reductions reflect the substantial upward revisions to our oil and other commodity price forecasts following Russia's invasion of Ukrain ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone The Russian invasion of Ukraine has prompted significant revisions to our forecasts for the eurozone. We now expect higher-for-longer inflation, seen at around 5% this year, combined with lower growth of just 3%. Further revisions are likely, especially as latest ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
Analysis by Region - MENA We have cut our 2022 GDP growth projection by 0.4ppts to 2.1% following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. There is immense uncertainty about the scale of the conflict's impact, but external factors have already added to the challenges faced by the Turkish economy this year. Soa ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal We have cut our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 5% from 5.3% due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and associated higher-for-longer energy price inflation. Still, we think Portugal will likely be among the eurozone countries least affected economically by the ... Read More
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Macro Weekly Economic Briefing US
Macro Weekly Economic Briefing US Blistering and broad-based inflation shows that the significant imbalance between strong demand and limited supply remains. What's more, the Russia-Ukraine war will add fuel to the blazing rate of inflation, posing a unique challenge for the Fed as it is set to star ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom The last week has delivered little let-up in the energy price-driven supply shock to the UK economy triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Inflation is set to rise above 8% later in the spring and we have downgraded our forecast for GDP growth this year ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Austria
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Austria We have cut our near-term growth forecast for Austria due to impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Supply chains were just beginning to recover prior to the attack but headwinds are now intensifying. We expect a large hit to trade, a direct hit from tra ... Read More
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