Category: International Trade
International Trade market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy We expect Russia's invasion of Ukraine will cause energy prices to stay higher for longer, pushing up Italian inflation further to average 5.8% this year. We have also cut our 2022 GDP growth forecast by 1ppt to 2.9%. Moreover, the speed at which events are ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Qatar
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Qatar We leave our 2022 GDP growth forecast for Qatar unchanged at 3.6% for now, which reflects our view that the unfolding conflict in Ukraine has a limited impact on the outlook. Although sentiment may suffer in the short term if uncertainty persists and price ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Taiwan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Taiwan We expect Russia's invasion of Ukraine will cause commodity prices to stay higher for longer, pushing up inflation further and weakening growth given Taiwan's exposed position in global trade. We have therefore cut our 2022 GDP growth forecast by 0.4ppts t ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Slovenia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Slovenia We now forecast Slovenia’s GDP growth at 6.3% this year, up from 3.7% previously thanks to a stellar performance at end-2021. GDP rose 5.4% q/q in Q4, the second highest on record, driven by government consumption and net trade, leaving the economy 6.6% ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Eswatini
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Eswatini We forecast that economic growth in Eswatini will slow significantly to around 2.4% in 2022 and 1.9% in 2023, from an estimated 6.0% in 2021. The quasi-enclave's economic and developmental prospects are weighed down by several internal and exogenous f ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Romania
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Romania Economic growth in Q4 2021 has been revised to a 0.1% q/q contraction from a 0.5% q/q decline previously. Following downward revisions to previous quarters in 2021, GDP growth has been revised down to 5.8% from 6.1% last month. All Covid containment re ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iraq We have lowered our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 4.4% from 4.8% previously, owing to higher inflation and a rise in social unrest, domestic political fragmentation, and violence after US withdrawal from the country. This recovery, led by higher oil prices and ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Denmark
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Denmark We have lowered our Danish 2022 GDP growth forecast by 0.5pts to 2.9%, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its impact on global commodity prices are set to raise inflation to levels not seen since the 1980's. This will primarily impact consumers, who are l ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden We have lowered Sweden's growth for this year to 3.1% from 3.6% previously due to the fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The main channel will be from higher inflation, weighing on disposable incomes and private consumption. Input shortages, which ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo The economy has benefitted from a strong rise in copper and cobalt prices, the country's two main export commodities. The increase in the prices of these commodities has benefitted the extractive sector, while a recovery in the non-extractive sector also ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Finland
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Finland We have lowered our GDP growth forecast for Finland this year to 1.7% from 2.3% previously due to its high exposure to the fall-out from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. As well as inflation being higher for longer, which will squeeze real incomes and dent c ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom Though the MPC raised Bank Rate for the third successive meeting, March's minutes revealed a clear change in tone. Growing concerns about the downside risks to growth from high inflation mean that we think another 25bps hike in the UK policy rate in May will ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone The war between Russia and Ukraine continues to dominate headlines and financial markets. The daily news flow coming out of the region is causing large swings in energy prices and European equity markets, as investors move back and forth from optimism to pessimism ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Russia's invasion of Ukraine is reverberating throughout the global economy, but nowhere is the impact as great as in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. In addition to surging energy prices, CEE economies will be hurt by renewed supply short ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - South Korea
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - South Korea We have cut our GDP growth forecasts by 0.3ppts to 2.8% in 2022 and by 0.1ppt to 2.8% in 2023 to reflect the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war. While South Korea has limited direct trade links to Russia and Ukraine, the war has led to higher commodity ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Greece
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Greece We have lowered our Greek GDP call for 2022, with growth now forecast at 3.0%, down 0.3pp from last month as the outlook has deteriorated due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This follows solid 7.9% expansion in 2021. Although the national accounts show ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Indonesia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Indonesia We have significantly downgraded our 2023 GDP growth forecast for Indonesia by 0.8ppts to 5.7% from our February baseline. This mainly reflects a slower domestic demand recovery from Q2 onwards with the Russia-Ukraine war resulting in higher global ener ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Australia
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Australia Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2022, increasing by 1.6%, picking up to 2.6% growth in 2023. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belgium
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belgium The outlook has changed significantly for the worse, so we have revised our growth and inflation forecasts sharply. We now see Belgian GDP advancing 2.5% in 2022, 0.5pp down from a month ago, and 1.5% in 2023. As for inflation, we have raised our call for ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Russia
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Russia Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to decline less than economic growth in 2022, falling by 0.4%, picking up to 0.5% growth in 2023. ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Malta
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Malta Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2022, increasing by 1.8%, picking up to 2.3% growth in 2023. ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Argentina
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Argentina Industrial production (manufacturing, extraction and utilities) is forecast to lag economic growth in 2022, increasing by 2.2%, before easing to 1.5% growth in 2023. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany The Russian invasion of Ukraine will materially undermine this year's recovery. The headwinds will primarily come via higher energy prices that will heavily curtail consumers' real incomes and the rebound in spending. New supply disruptions are also set t ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India We have lowered our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 7.3% from 7.7% last month and our 2023 forecast to 5.8% from 6.9%. These reductions reflect the substantial upward revisions to our oil and other commodity price forecasts following Russia's invasion of Ukrain ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone The Russian invasion of Ukraine has prompted significant revisions to our forecasts for the eurozone. We now expect higher-for-longer inflation, seen at around 5% this year, combined with lower growth of just 3%. Further revisions are likely, especially as latest ... Read More
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