Category: International Trade
International Trade market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guatemala
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guatemala We expect GDP growth in Honduras to cool to 2.9% this year and 2.7% in 2023, following a stronger-than-expected 12.5% expansion in 2021 that left output 2.4% above pre-pandemic levels, as support from remittances and US demand cools. Risks remain tilted ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guatemala
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guatemala Guatemala outperformed regional peers last year with a strong 8% GDP expansion that drove output 6% above pre-pandemic levels despite low Covid vaccination coverage. However, we expect growth to slow to 2.5% in 2022 and 2.6% in 2023 as output normalizes ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Hungary
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Hungary Economic data confirm that momentum has held up even after the onset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But the impact of war will weigh on the post-pandemic recovery, even if the process proves delayed compared to what was expected. First, the recent su ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Philippines
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Philippines We have kept our GDP growth forecasts for the Philippines at 6.8% for 2022 and 5.8% for 2023, but downside risks have risen due to lockdowns in China, which will worsen supply chain disruptions. This will further dampen foreign trade prospects amid th ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Poland
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Poland Current data point to the remarkable resilience of Poland's economy. Even should there be a marked slowdown in activity later in the year as the Ukraine war and tighter monetary policy weigh on spending, a strong Q1 growth performance will support this ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Our baseline forecast is for Ukraine's GDP to contract by about 35% this year, followed by a relatively shallow recovery in 2023 and 2024 (Chart 1). By 2027, we expect Ukraine's GDP will still be 13.5% below its pre-war levels. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Egypt
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Egypt The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on food prices is being felt and with global food prices projected to rise into Q2, Egyptians will not be able to escape further inflationary pressures. This will weigh on consumer demand, which has proven to be a key ... Read More
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Industry - Monthly Industry Briefings - Engineering and metal goods
Industry - Monthly Industry Briefings - Engineering and metal goods To account for the ongoing war in Ukraine and sanctions imposed on Russia, we have updated our Global Industry forecasts on an interim basis. Our global growth projections have been relatively unchanged; however, the war will provid ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Taiwan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Taiwan xBased on advance estimates by DGBAS, Taiwan's real GDP increased by 3.06% y/y in Q1 2022, bolstered by growth in gross capital formation and exports. We maintain a relatively conservative outlook and see GDP growing 2.7% in 2022 given that downside ri ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Europe - Russia
Analysis by Region - Europe - Russia We have maintained our GDP forecasts of a 10.9% contraction in 2022 and a 3.3% decline in 2023. While GDP is estimated to have grown by 3.7% y/y in Q1, this mainly reflects buoyant growth in January-February, before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Having alread ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Despite the eye-catching 1.4% contraction in Q1 real GDP, the pulse for the domestic economy still beats strongly. Notably, consumer spending in March outpaced the 40-year high in inflation, which provides a solid handoff to consumer spending growth in Q2 which we see r ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone Economic data released this week raised further concerns over the eurozone economy. Q1 GDP expanded by just 0.2% in Q1, broadly in line with our expectations but in all a sluggish result. Meanwhile, inflation continued to rise, reaching a multi-decade high of 7.5% ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US It was a volatile week in the Treasury market – and in financial markets generally – but in the end, yields finished the week little changed except for at the front end of the curve. Two-year yields were 3bps higher on the week and the 10-year yield was 1bp lower, flatt ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic We have maintained our Czech Republic growth forecast for 2022 at 1.9%, as renewed supply disruptions and the cost-of-living crisis, both exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, continue to weigh on the economy. But growth should bounce ba ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Europe
Analysis by Region - Europe According to the Ministry of Economy, Ukraine's GDP likely contracted by 16% in Q1, which is consistent with a contraction of about 45% in March. But survey data from April suggests the country has started to adjust to "war economy" conditions. We still see ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Japan
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Japan We have lowered our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 2.2% from 2.5% to reflect a weaker-than-thought Q1, higher commodity prices, and a poorer yen projection for the rest of the year. Higher import prices will dampen the real earnings of households and corporates ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Latin America - Argentina
Analysis by Region - Latin America - Argentina We have upgraded our 2022 GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppts to 2.4% due to a better-than-expected 1.2% q/q estimated expansion in Q1, led by an output rebound in February and booming exports. Yet, as the central bank (BCRA) is currently on a tightening cyc ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - France
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - France The invasion of Ukraine by Russia continues to dominate France's outlook. While the direct impact on the French economy will likely be limited given the modest weight of Russia and Ukraine on France’s exports and imports, the real pain will be felt in ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Malaysia
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Malaysia We have lowered our 2022 GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppts to 5.9% to reflect slower export growth due to the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Covid lockdowns in China. We still expect the end of coronavirus pandemic-related restrictions, the re ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Nigeria
Analysis by Region - Africa - Nigeria While the war between Russia and Ukraine has increased international uncertainty, the Nigerian economy remains undeterred. The non-oil economy's strong performance persisted in the first quarter of the year, as the PMI moderated only slightly to 55.0 in Q1 2 ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore We have maintained our 2022 and 2023 GDP growth forecasts for Singapore at 3.3% and 2.3%, respectively, as Q1 2022 GDP numbers landed within our expectations. Domestically, a significant easing of Covid-related restrictions will boost private consumptio ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - China
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - China The prolonged lockdown in Shanghai plus highway controls in a number of provinces are severely disrupting domestic and port logistics. While land transport and industrial production have improved somewhat after a sharp slowdown in early April, we think the ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore We have maintained our 2022 and 2023 GDP growth forecasts for Singapore at 3.3% and 2.3%, respectively, as Q1 2022 GDP numbers landed within our expectations. Domestically, a significant easing of Covid-related restrictions will boost private consumptio ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - China
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - China The prolonged lockdown in Shanghai plus highway controls in a number of provinces are severely disrupting domestic and port logistics. While land transport and industrial production have improved somewhat after a sharp slowdown in early April, we think the ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Algeria
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