Category: International Trade
International Trade market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Egypt
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Egypt The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on food prices is being felt and with global food prices projected to rise into Q2, Egyptians will not be able to escape further inflationary pressures. This will weigh on consumer demand, which has proven to be a key ... Read More
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Industry - Monthly Industry Briefings - Engineering and metal goods
Industry - Monthly Industry Briefings - Engineering and metal goods To account for the ongoing war in Ukraine and sanctions imposed on Russia, we have updated our Global Industry forecasts on an interim basis. Our global growth projections have been relatively unchanged; however, the war will provid ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Taiwan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Taiwan xBased on advance estimates by DGBAS, Taiwan's real GDP increased by 3.06% y/y in Q1 2022, bolstered by growth in gross capital formation and exports. We maintain a relatively conservative outlook and see GDP growing 2.7% in 2022 given that downside ri ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Europe - Russia
Analysis by Region - Europe - Russia We have maintained our GDP forecasts of a 10.9% contraction in 2022 and a 3.3% decline in 2023. While GDP is estimated to have grown by 3.7% y/y in Q1, this mainly reflects buoyant growth in January-February, before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Having alread ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Despite the eye-catching 1.4% contraction in Q1 real GDP, the pulse for the domestic economy still beats strongly. Notably, consumer spending in March outpaced the 40-year high in inflation, which provides a solid handoff to consumer spending growth in Q2 which we see r ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone Economic data released this week raised further concerns over the eurozone economy. Q1 GDP expanded by just 0.2% in Q1, broadly in line with our expectations but in all a sluggish result. Meanwhile, inflation continued to rise, reaching a multi-decade high of 7.5% ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US It was a volatile week in the Treasury market – and in financial markets generally – but in the end, yields finished the week little changed except for at the front end of the curve. Two-year yields were 3bps higher on the week and the 10-year yield was 1bp lower, flatt ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic We have maintained our Czech Republic growth forecast for 2022 at 1.9%, as renewed supply disruptions and the cost-of-living crisis, both exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, continue to weigh on the economy. But growth should bounce ba ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Europe
Analysis by Region - Europe According to the Ministry of Economy, Ukraine's GDP likely contracted by 16% in Q1, which is consistent with a contraction of about 45% in March. But survey data from April suggests the country has started to adjust to "war economy" conditions. We still see ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Japan
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Japan We have lowered our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 2.2% from 2.5% to reflect a weaker-than-thought Q1, higher commodity prices, and a poorer yen projection for the rest of the year. Higher import prices will dampen the real earnings of households and corporates ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Latin America - Argentina
Analysis by Region - Latin America - Argentina We have upgraded our 2022 GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppts to 2.4% due to a better-than-expected 1.2% q/q estimated expansion in Q1, led by an output rebound in February and booming exports. Yet, as the central bank (BCRA) is currently on a tightening cyc ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - France
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - France The invasion of Ukraine by Russia continues to dominate France's outlook. While the direct impact on the French economy will likely be limited given the modest weight of Russia and Ukraine on France’s exports and imports, the real pain will be felt in ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Malaysia
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Malaysia We have lowered our 2022 GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppts to 5.9% to reflect slower export growth due to the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Covid lockdowns in China. We still expect the end of coronavirus pandemic-related restrictions, the re ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Nigeria
Analysis by Region - Africa - Nigeria While the war between Russia and Ukraine has increased international uncertainty, the Nigerian economy remains undeterred. The non-oil economy's strong performance persisted in the first quarter of the year, as the PMI moderated only slightly to 55.0 in Q1 2 ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore We have maintained our 2022 and 2023 GDP growth forecasts for Singapore at 3.3% and 2.3%, respectively, as Q1 2022 GDP numbers landed within our expectations. Domestically, a significant easing of Covid-related restrictions will boost private consumptio ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - China
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - China The prolonged lockdown in Shanghai plus highway controls in a number of provinces are severely disrupting domestic and port logistics. While land transport and industrial production have improved somewhat after a sharp slowdown in early April, we think the ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore We have maintained our 2022 and 2023 GDP growth forecasts for Singapore at 3.3% and 2.3%, respectively, as Q1 2022 GDP numbers landed within our expectations. Domestically, a significant easing of Covid-related restrictions will boost private consumptio ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - China
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - China The prolonged lockdown in Shanghai plus highway controls in a number of provinces are severely disrupting domestic and port logistics. While land transport and industrial production have improved somewhat after a sharp slowdown in early April, we think the ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Algeria
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India The Reserve Bank of India's hawkish shift in April and the surge in March CPI to 7% have pushed up our 2022-end policy rate forecast to 5%. We expect the economy to weather the slightly faster pace of monetary policy normalisation and maintain our 2022 ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Nigeria
Analysis by Region - Africa - Nigeria While the war between Russia and Ukraine has increased international uncertainty, the Nigerian economy remains undeterred. The non-oil economy's strong performance persisted in the first quarter of the year, as the PMI moderated only slightly to 55.0 in Q1 2 ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Romania
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Romania Romania's GDP growth is expected to slow to 3.0% this year from 5.8% in 2021 due to fading base effects and fallout from the war. Meanwhile, economic sentiment remained buoyant in March, due to government support for households and SME energy bills wh ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Qatar
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Qatar Qatar's GDP grew 1.5% in 2021, 0.7ppt below our forecast, after annual growth slowed in Q4 against our expectations of a pick-up. Although the latest industrial production reading displays notable weakness, we have kept our 2022 GDP growth forecast unch ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Pakistan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Pakistan Rising inflation, a widening external deficit and political uncertainty are adding to macroeconomic imbalances. Overall, we forecast GDP growth will slow to 4.2% in 2022, after a rise of 6.0% in 2021. Political uncertainty has increased drastically as th ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway Our 2022 mainland GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 3.6%, but a stronger-than-expected impact from the war in Ukraine on household consumption represents the main downside risk to our outlook. Otherwise, growth prospects remain resolute. An incredib ... Read More
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