Category: International Trade
International Trade market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Malaysia
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Malaysia We have raised our 2022 GDP growth forecast by 1.3ppt to 7.2% following a 1.3% q/q rise in Q1 GDP and evidence of a faster-than-anticipated recovery in domestic demand. Boosted by stronger tourism following the reopening of borders on 1 April, we expect s ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The front-end led Treasury yields lower this week, steepening the curve. The 2-year yield was 10bp lower in late Friday morning trading, leading the gains as traders pared rate hike bets. Stocks bounced back after finding support last week at the 38% retracement of the ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom A £15bn package of fiscal aid to households will ease, if not eliminate, cost of living pressures. It’s still unclear what effect a more generous bills rebate will have on official inflation, but the targeted nature of the new support means any indirect ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Egypt
Analysis by Region - Africa - Egypt A cabinet statement made by Minister of Planning Hala Al-Said suggests that the economy may be much weaker than we are being led to believe. According to Al-Said, real GDP growth came in just above 5.0% y-o-y in Q1 2022, while the economy is expected to expand by ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone The eurozone economy continues to be shaped by a strong divergence between a weak industrial sector plagued by headwinds such as supply bottlenecks, higher input costs, and weakening sentiment, and a solid services sector, which is keeping the economy above water. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway Norwegian mainland GDP declined by 0.6% q/q in Q1. Despite strongly growth in both February and March, a low starting point from weaker activity around the turn of the year caused the contraction. With the economy back close to its November 2021 peak in Ma ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands The Dutch economy started 2022 a bit weaker than we expected, with GDP stagnating in Q1. As a result of this and the renewed supply-chain disruptions from the lockdowns in China, we have lowered our GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppt this year to 3.1%, but ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Syrian Arab Republic
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Syrian Arab Republic Political unrest, a crumbling currency, and a meagre 8.9% fully vaccinated population have served to reduce our outlook on the Syrian economy; as such, we are lowering our 2022 GDP forecast from 5.2% to 4.3%, and from 4.4% to 4.2% in 2023. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Guyana
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Guyana We expect new oil discoveries will continue to drive Guyana's economic expansion and forecast GDP to grow by 48.7% in 2022 following a 19.9% rise in 2021. ExxonMobil, the largest operator in offshore Guyana, made three new oil discoveries this month ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Colombia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Colombia Strong Q1 2022 national accounts data forced us to revisit our GDP growth estimate to 4.3% this year, from 3.8% previously. But the Colombian economy is likely to experience a technical recession this year, on the back of a sharper tightening in domes ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India We have lowered our 2022 India GDP growth forecast to 6.9% from 7.3% and the 2023 forecast to 5.5% from 5.8%. The downgrades reflect the impact from higher inflationary pressures, less accommodative monetary conditions, and the significant deterioration in ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Hong Kong SAR
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Hong Kong SAR We have lowered our 2022 Hong Kong GDP growth forecast to just 0.1% from 1% previously, mainly reflecting the worse-than-expected GDP contraction of 3% q/q in Q1 and the downgrade to our China GDP growth forecast. But we expect stronger growth of 4. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates The UAE began a 40-day mourning period last week following the death of its president, Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed al-Nahyan, who was instrumental in the economic transformation of the UAE. His successor, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, has ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom CPI inflation reached a 40-year high of 9% in April. Though this should be the peak, the descent is likely to be slow given the strength of pressures coming along the supply chain, the renewed rise in petrol prices, and the recent weakness of sterling. Regul ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US While we still expect the Fed to steer the economy toward a soft landing, downside risks to the economy and the probability of a recession are increasing. A more aggressive pace of Fed rate hikes, a tightening in financial conditions, the ongoing war in Ukraine and Chin ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria While Nigeria is one of the few countries that is expected to financially benefit from the war between Russia and Ukraine, it has not come off scot-free from the conflict. Higher fuel prices are pressuring households, prompting the government to redire ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Bermuda
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Bermuda We expect Bermuda's GDP to expand by 3.2% in 2022, which continues to be in line with average expected growth for Caribbean economies as they recover from the coronavirus pandemic. However, this positive outlook is dependent on Bermuda's year-e ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Qatar
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Qatar We continue to believe the economy began the year with a rebound and expect Qatar's GDP to expand by 3.6% in 2022, following 1.5% growth in 2021. Our forecast balances expectations of strong non-oil performance – underpinned by economic reopening and sp ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belgium
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belgium Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Belgium's outlook has changed significantly for the worse, so we have revised our growth and inflation forecasts substantially. We now see Belgian GDP advancing 2.1% in 2022 and 1.3% in 2023, down 0.8ppts and 0.2 ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Denmark
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Denmark The flash GDP estimate suggests the economy contracted slightly in Q1, although this was driven largely by an unwinding of health expenditures related to the pandemic. Nevertheless, this has lowered our 2022 GDP forecast 0.5pts to 3.9%. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, we have revised our forecast for Italian growth downward. We now expect 2022 GDP to grow 2.9%, up 0.1ppt since last month after Q1 GDP data came in slightly better than expected, yet down more than 1ppt since our Fe ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Finland
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Finland We have lowered our 2022 GDP growth forecast for Finland to 1.5% from 1.7% last month, as weakening confidence further dampens the outlook. We expect inflation to peak higher with a greater passthrough to core prices, squeezing real incomes and denting co ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - South Korea
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - South Korea We have cut our South Korea GDP growth forecast 0.3ppts to 2.5% in 2022 and 0.4ppts to 2.4% in 2023. These downward revisions reflect downgrades in our China GDP growth forecasts, worsening of global supply-chain disruptions, and impact on domestic de ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Greece
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Greece We have cut our 2022 GDP growth forecast again, to 2.8% from 3% last month. This is a sharp slowdown from the 7.9% pace registered last year, reflecting the fallout from high numbers of Covid cases in early 2022 and more recently the war in Ukraine, which ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Switzerland
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Switzerland We've nudged our 2022 Swiss GDP growth forecast down to 2.4% from 2.6% last month, after factoring in weaker indicators for Q1 and additional disruptions to supply chains from the lockdowns in China. But we are maintaining our 2023 GDP forecast at ... Read More
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