Category: International Trade
International Trade market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India The Reserve Bank of India's hawkish shift in April and the surge in March CPI to 7% have pushed up our 2022-end policy rate forecast to 5%. We expect the economy to weather the slightly faster pace of monetary policy normalisation and maintain our 2022 ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Nigeria
Analysis by Region - Africa - Nigeria While the war between Russia and Ukraine has increased international uncertainty, the Nigerian economy remains undeterred. The non-oil economy's strong performance persisted in the first quarter of the year, as the PMI moderated only slightly to 55.0 in Q1 2 ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Romania
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Romania Romania's GDP growth is expected to slow to 3.0% this year from 5.8% in 2021 due to fading base effects and fallout from the war. Meanwhile, economic sentiment remained buoyant in March, due to government support for households and SME energy bills wh ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Qatar
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Qatar Qatar's GDP grew 1.5% in 2021, 0.7ppt below our forecast, after annual growth slowed in Q4 against our expectations of a pick-up. Although the latest industrial production reading displays notable weakness, we have kept our 2022 GDP growth forecast unch ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Pakistan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Pakistan Rising inflation, a widening external deficit and political uncertainty are adding to macroeconomic imbalances. Overall, we forecast GDP growth will slow to 4.2% in 2022, after a rise of 6.0% in 2021. Political uncertainty has increased drastically as th ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway Our 2022 mainland GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 3.6%, but a stronger-than-expected impact from the war in Ukraine on household consumption represents the main downside risk to our outlook. Otherwise, growth prospects remain resolute. An incredib ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway Our 2022 mainland GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 3.6%, but a stronger-than-expected impact from the war in Ukraine on household consumption represents the main downside risk to our outlook. Otherwise, growth prospects remain resolute. An incredib ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom Sharp falls in consumer confidence and retail sales added to the evidence that cost of living pressures are adversely impacting the economy. April's flash PMIs also fell, with the composite index at a three-month low, albeit comfortably still in growth t ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Chair Powell is in the 50bps rate hike camp for May, a strong indication the Fed is set to raise interest rates by the most at a single policy meeting since 2000. Inflation is approaching its peak but won't fall quickly, and as such we see another 50bps increase in ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone Different forces are pulling the eurozone economy in opposite directions. The impact of the war in Ukraine continues to cause an energy-driven inflation surge and a massive hit to confidence, as well as an exacerbation of the pre-existing problems in supply chains ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Emerging market (EM) import prices on average have risen 13% since the start of the year, due in part to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. As a result, we expect the median EM trade balance to improve slightly, by 0.7% in GDP (Chart 1). While commodity pro ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Indonesia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Indonesia We have maintained our 2022-2023 GDP growth forecasts for Indonesia at 5.7%, despite downside risks stemming from the Russia-Ukraine war and weaker growth prospects for China. We project a continued recovery in domestic demand, with the Covid pandemic&# ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The Treasury curve staged a strong bear-flattening shift this week. Front-end yields surged on rising rate hike expectations and an unwinding of curve steepening trades. That included the largest weekly rise in the 1-year bill yield since March 25, and before that since ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sri Lanka
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sri Lanka We have further downgraded our GDP growth forecasts for Sri Lanka by 2.5ppts to 2% in 2022 and by 1.9ppts to 2.4% in 2023 as the external debt crisis spills over to the domestic economy. The lack of foreign exchange (FX) reserves has led to a shortage o ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain Spain's 2022 outlook continues to be impacted by the war in Ukraine. Soaring energy prices are pushing inflation higher, eroding real income, while confidence is dramatically down. Thus, we expect Spanish GDP to grow 4.8% this year (down from our previo ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Colombia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Colombia The central bank's hesitancy to shift its policy stance to deal with mounting inflationary risks and the current external buffers from commodity prices have supported Colombian growth so far this year. Our 2022 growth forecast stands at 3.8%, from 3. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden We have lowered Sweden's growth outlook for this year to 2.8% from 3.1% amid weak Q1 data. The main headwind continues to be high inflation, eroding real disposable incomes and private consumption. Input shortages had been easing until Russia's inv ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany Russia's invasion of Ukraine will materially undermine this year's recovery. We have further revised down our forecasts this month due to expected higher inflation this year and our more downbeat view on the industrial outlook, given a swift hit f ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific Australian economic data released over the past month have come in broadly as expected. The labour market continues to perform well, with the March unemployment rate holding steady at 4%. Still, hours worked continue to be disrupted by high COVID case numbers. While ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Headline consumer prices rose at their fastest annual pace since December 1981 in April. We expect CPI inflation to peak in April, but more importantly look for only a gradual retreat, and expect prices to still be running 5% higher on an annual basis by year-end. That ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US There are signs that the 8.5 percent inflation rate in March marks the peak of the inflation cycle. A lot depends on oil and food prices, which are held hostage by the war in Ukraine, as well as spreading Covid lockdowns in China, which may prolong supply-chai ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - South Africa
Analysis by Region - Africa - South Africa Stagflation risks in South Africa have risen with real GDP forecast to grow at a slower rate of 1.6%, while average inflation is expected to increase to 5.6% in 2022. That said, low growth and high inflation have been key features of the economy even before ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - Canada
Analysis by Region - North America - Canada While the Canadian economy proved resilient in Q1 2022 amid Omicron and tighter restrictions, a more hawkish Bank of Canada, spill over effects from the Russia-Ukraine war, and a correction in house prices are expected to slow growth later in the year and ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Covid restrictions will weigh on Chinese household consumption and industrial production at least through April and into May. This could have a significant impact on global supply chains. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone Incumbent president Emmanuel Macron will face Marine Le Pen in the second round of French elections at the end of this month. The results of the first round show the unprecedented fragmentation of public opinion amid a clear rise of the extremes on the far right a ... Read More
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