Category: International Trade
International Trade market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Country Economic Forecasts - United Kingdom
Country Economic Forecasts - United Kingdom The prospect of much higher inflation and more aggressive tightening of monetary policy has led us to slash our forecast for 2022 GDP growth to 3.8% from 4.5% last month. A 54% rise in the energy price cap means we now expect CPI inflation to hit 7.5% in A ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal
Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal We have raised our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 5.3% from 4.6% previously, an improvement from 4.9% in 2021. GDP rose by 1.6% q/q in Q4 2021, which implies a stronger-than-expected carryover into 2022. Moreover, the socialists’ unexpected majority win is also pos ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Luxembourg
Country Economic Forecasts - Luxembourg The outlook for Luxembourg’s economy this year is bright; we forecast GDP growth of 2.3% in 2022, driven by solid private consumption, as consumers release pent-up demand, and net exports. While growth should be mild in Q1 amid surging infections and supply im ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Canada
Country Economic Forecasts - Canada We expect a temporary lull in Q1 GDP growth due to the Omicron variant, tighter restrictions, and persistent global supply issues. But provinces are already easing restrictions and the Omicron wave is fading, so the economy should rebound quickly in Q2. We have ra ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Estonia
Country Economic Forecasts - Estonia We have cut our forecast for Estonia’s 2022 GDP growth to 4.4% from 5.5% previously. GDP rose by 9.2% y/y in Q3, and the economy is well above pre-pandemic levels, but this was slower than we had expected so we have also downgraded our 2021 growth forecast to 8.1 ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
Country Economic Forecasts - Germany We have lowered our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 3.5% from 3.9% seen last month. GDP fell by a slightly larger than expected 0.7% q/q in Q4 last year as the latest infection wave took its toll and, although high-frequency and survey data for January was fairly enc ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Indonesia
Country Economic Forecasts - Indonesia We have downgraded our 2022 GDP growth forecast for Indonesia by 0.3ppts to 5.7% despite a strong growth rebound in Q4 2021. This reflects the retightening of restrictions to contain the current Omicron wave, a steady rise in inflation, and the slowing momentum ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Sri Lanka
Country Economic Forecasts - Sri Lanka We have downgraded our GDP growth forecasts for Sri Lanka by 1.5ppts to 4.5% in 2022 and by 0.7ppts to 4.3% in 2023 despite a stronger-than-expected GDP outcome in Q3 2021. This is to reflect the negative macroeconomic effects of the unravelling foreign reserve ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Ethiopia
Country Economic Forecasts - Ethiopia Revised assumptions regarding the impact of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus, coupled with a better-than-expected uptake of government securities, allowed for an upward adjustment to the GDP growth forecast for the 2021/22 fiscal year (FY, which commenced ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Cambodia
Country Economic Forecasts - Cambodia Travel and trading curbs have eased since Q4 as Covid-19 fatalities subside, putting services on the recovery path that manufacturing and farming have already entered. This will lift GDP growth to about 5.5% this year and back to its previous 7% path from 2023 a ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Tanzania
Country Economic Forecasts - Tanzania Our near-term economic growth outlook has improved due to renewed support from the IMF and the signing of new construction projects. As a result, we lifted our real GDP growth forecast to 5.0% in 2022. Resilient growth in the construction, mining, information & ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Lesotho
Country Economic Forecasts - Lesotho Economic output in Q3 2021 offered a flicker of hope that a revival was on the cards. Yet, the momentum was unlikely to have been sustained, and so, we estimate that GDP contracted by 0.5% in 2021. Still, ongoing construction of phase two of the Lesotho Highlands ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Bangladesh
Country Economic Forecasts - Bangladesh We have maintained our FY2022 GDP growth forecast of 6% despite the rapid spread of coronavirus, as key economic sectors will continue to drive growth. We forecast 6.5% growth in FY2023 to be supported by vaccination progress and an improved health situation. ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Rwanda
Country Economic Forecasts - Rwanda Real GDP revelled in another strong expansion in Q3 2021 with the growth rate coming in at 10.1% y-o-y. The previous quarter saw a base-effects driven 20.6% y-o-y expansion. The double-digit growth rate in Q3 was fuelled by the services and industrial sectors, whi ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Belarus
Country Economic Forecasts - Belarus A widening external surplus and strong export prices will sustain the recovery this year and ensure steady growth to 2025, enabling the government to narrow its budget deficit and keep servicing and reducing foreign debt. Fiscal stimulus will still be available t ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Vietnam
Country Economic Forecasts - Vietnam GDP rose 5.2% y/y in Q4, bringing 2021 GDP growth to 2.6%. We expect the recovery to gain pace in 2022 as Vietnam’s high vaccination rate should prevent another full lockdown. We forecast GDP growth of 7.3% this year, improving to 8.8% in 2023, led by stronger do ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Cameroon
Country Economic Forecasts - Cameroon The Cameroonian economy delivered a fairly robust performance in H1 2021, as real GDP growth reached 3.4% on a cumulative basis. Concurrently, the rebasing of the real economy from 2005 to 2016 showed that a contraction of 1.0% occurred in 2020 due to the Covid- ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Namibia
Country Economic Forecasts - Namibia An extraordinary growth performance, similar to the one in Q4 2020, will be needed in Q4 2021 to avert a third-straight annual economic contraction. Although mining output is recovering from operational issues at the start of 2021, we estimate real GDP shrunk by ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Philippines
Country Economic Forecasts - Philippines After estimated GDP growth of 4.6% in 2021, we expect the economic recovery in the Philippines to gain a firmer footing this year as activities normalise. That said, the year likely started off somewhat softly as a rise in daily Covid cases led to some modest ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Peru
Country Economic Forecasts - Peru Peru’s economy slowed in Q4 as mining activity was heavily affected by social unrest and protests. We have kept our 2021 GDP growth estimate at 12.9% mostly due to the big base effect from 2020. Our 2022 growth forecast remains unchanged at 3.3% as monetary policy t ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Kazakhstan
Country Economic Forecasts - Kazakhstan President Tokayev’s use of January protests, the worst for ten years, to take over his predecessor’s remaining powers, with a pledge to tackle old-regime oligarchs, may help new Prime Minister Alikhan Smailov (who has a finance ministry background) to speed up ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Ukraine
Country Economic Forecasts - Ukraine We maintain our 2022 GDP growth forecast of 2.8%. Geopolitical tensions are very high, and a new military conflict could cause a recession, although we do not think it would be as long and severe as in 2014-2015 because past reforms have reduced the economy’s vul ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - North Korea
Country Economic Forecasts - North Korea North Korea’s economy likely remained in deep recession in 2021, following a 4.5% contraction in 2020. Borders were closed for the second consecutive year to prevent the spread of Covid, which depressed trade even further and affected domestic activities. We ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Ecuador
Country Economic Forecasts - Ecuador Ecuador’s early 2021 GDP data was revised upwards, leading us to upgrade our full-year growth expectation by 0.5ppts to 4%. However, a surge in Covid cases and an economic slowdown since late 2021 have prompted us to cut our 2022 GDP growth forecast by 0.9ppts to ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Georgia
Country Economic Forecasts - Georgia A strong Q4 as coronavirus restrictions were eased lifted GDP growth above its pre-pandemic rate in 2021, to an estimated 10.8%, and this year will see a continued above-trend rate of about 7.7% as fast-recovering capital inflows combine with private investment a ... Read More
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