Category: International Trade
International Trade market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Our 2022 outlook for emerging markets (EMs) has been cut further to reflect deep recessions in Russia and Ukraine and increased headwinds elsewhere. Our 2022 GDP growth forecast now stands at 3.7%, 0.9ppts below our baseline before Russia's invasion of ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom A strong performance from March's services and construction PMIs offered some indication that the economy carried a degree of momentum at the end of Q1, despite intensifying cost of living pressures. But firms have become much gloomier about the future. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The minutes from the Fed's March policy meeting underscored that policymakers intend to "move the stance of monetary policy towards a neutral posture expeditiously" in order to tackle hot inflation and assuage fears that it is behind the curve. We look for a 5 ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone When France' first round of presidential elections takes place this Sunday, it will be a reflection of the economic consequences that the war in Ukraine has had and the reversal in the polls the conflict has caused. While President E. Macron remains the favourite, ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets An unexpected lockdown in Shanghai, China's financial and trade hub, has raised concerns over China's economic and supply chain prospects. The lockdowns in Shenzhen in mid-March and now in Shanghai show the challenge to the government in maintaining a zero ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom An upward revision to the estimate for Q4 2021 took the quarterly UK GDP series to within a whisker of its pre-pandemic level. But the expenditure breakdown suggests the recovery has been very uneven and heavily reliant on the public sector. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific We expect domestic demand to be a key driver of economic growth over 2022-2023 as activities normalise and labour market conditions improve following the end of most coronavirus pandemic-related restrictions. That said, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has created n ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US In their public remarks since last month's FOMC meeting, Fed officials have only become more hawkish. We now look for the Fed to accelerate the pace of rate hikes and to raise the federal funds rate by 50bps each in May and June. We expect a cumulative rate hike of 200b ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone Survey data this week offer a glimpse into the European economy's post-invasion reality. The Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) reading for the eurozone fell to a 12-month low, driven by dips in consumer confidence and industrial sector sentiment. Moreover, the fi ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - China
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - China China’s GDP growth is forecast ease to 4.9% in 2022 but pick up to 5.4% in 2023. To achieve this gain, we expect meaningful and front-loaded policy support from the government, which has emphasized tax cuts and unemployment benefits and has sped up the a ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
Analysis by Region - MENA We have raised our estimate of 2021 GDP growth for Jordan to 2.0% up from 1.8% previously due to stronger-than-expected growth continuing into Q3. But our forecast for 2022 has been cut to 1.9% from 2.4% as surging oil prices and higher inflation will weigh on domestic dema ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United Kingdom
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United Kingdom Industrial production had been increasing slowly but steadily since last October thanks to easing supply chain pressures, but remains about 2% below pre-pandemic levels. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Poland
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Poland We have cut our near-term GDP growth forecast for Poland as Russia's invasion of Ukraine has hit trade through sanctions and investment sentiment via elevated uncertainty. In addition, higher energy commodity prices will keep inflation elevated for lon ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Egypt
Analysis by Region - Africa - Egypt The Russia-Ukraine war threatens the Egyptian economy through food shortages and soaring commodity prices. Rising global prices for essential goods such as fuel and food will filter through to consumer price inflation. Furthermore, an exodus of dollars amid shifti ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Japan
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Japan The forecast for Japan’s GDP growth of 2.8% in 2022 has been lowered recently, due to higher-than-expected energy costs and inflation, and their impact early in the year on consumption and exports. However, we expect consumption will regain momentum in Q ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Hungary
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Hungary We have cut our near-term GDP growth forecast for Hungary, given the economic fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine that will hamper the post-pandemic recovery. Notably, inflation will stay higher for longer, weighing on consumption, a major growth ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany German industry was on a strongly expansionary path through January amid a rebound in automotive production as supply bottlenecks were steadily easing. But it will be among the hardest hit European economies with respect to the rise in energy prices an ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Jordan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Jordan The UAE's non-oil PMI rose to 54.8 in February from 54.1 in January on the back of a strong recovery in travel and tourism and market demand as fears of the Omicron variant faded. In February, Dubai alone welcomed 1.2m visitors, in comparison to just o ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway The fallout from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and a brief but sharp hit from the Omicron outbreak have prompted us to cut our 2022 mainland GDP growth forecast by 0.7ppts to 3.6%. While government subsidies for household electricity bills are containing ene ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore We have further lowered our 2023 GDP growth forecast for Singapore by 0.2ppts to 2.3% from our previous baseline to reflect the weaker global growth outlook given the greater-than-anticipated scale of formal and informal international sanctions on Russi ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Japan
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Japan We have lowered our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 2.5% from 2.8% to reflect the upward revision to our energy price forecasts after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Headline CPI is now projected to average 1.6% in 2022, up from 1.3% previously. With few signs ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic We have cut our 2022 growth forecast sharply by 1.2pp to 1.9% following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Higher inflation due to soaring commodity prices is the main cuplrit, but supply chains, the exchange rate and trade will all be negatively af ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Latin America - Brazil
Analysis by Region - Latin America - Brazil Brazil's economy recovered at a faster pace than we had expected in Q4 2021, putting it in a strong position to benefit from the added boost to terms of trade coming from the surge in commodity prices since the war in Ukraine started. As a result, we h ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - China
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - China After a better-than-expected start to the year, recent Omicron outbreaks will undermine China's economic recovery, in addition to the ongoing real estate downturn. While China's economy will be less impacted by the Russia-Ukraine war than Europe and ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Philippines
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Philippines We have raised our Q1 GDP growth forecast for the Philippines as restrictions imposed during the Omicron wave in January proved to be of shorter duration than expected and mobility has picked up sharply. That said, headwinds are mounting as a result o ... Read More
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