Category: International Trade
International Trade market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom The last week has delivered little let-up in the energy price-driven supply shock to the UK economy triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Inflation is set to rise above 8% later in the spring and we have downgraded our forecast for GDP growth this year ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Austria
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Austria We have cut our near-term growth forecast for Austria due to impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Supply chains were just beginning to recover prior to the attack but headwinds are now intensifying. We expect a large hit to trade, a direct hit from tra ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Latin America
Analysis by Region - Latin America We maintain our 2022 GDP growth forecast at 2%, but downside risks are growing. We expect the Russia-Ukraine conflict will lead to tightening global financial conditions that will likely curb foreign investment, put pressure on the peso, and risk higher-for-longer ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain The invasion of Ukraine by Russia will slow growth this year. The war has led to soaring energy prices and will push inflation even higher, eroding household real incomes. We now expect GDP to grow 5.1% this year (from a previous 5.6% forecast) and 3.9% in ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Mexico
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Mexico The escalation of the Ukraine-Russia conflict has added an extra layer of uncertainty to our outlook just weeks after the threat of the Omicron outbreak started to wane. Mexico's direct trade links with Russia and Ukraine are marginal, but the massive surg ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets After an uncertain start to 2022 due to a new wave of the pandemic, emerging markets (EMs) face new headwinds stemming from the sharp escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The impact on growth will be dramatic in Russia and Ukraine, significant in eme ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone We are lowering our forecast for the eurozone economies in light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The speed at which events are unfolding means that uncertainty remains extremely high, with risks skewed to the downside. Our new projections see a combinat ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States The US economy faces shifting headwinds. The Omicron wave has now been largely contained but higher inflation and greater uncertainty triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine have emerged as key risks. We anticipate real GDP will grow by 3.4% this ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Kingdom
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Kingdom We expect Russia's invasion of Ukraine to mean energy prices will stay higher for longer, pushing up UK inflation further and weakening growth. The energy price cap will delay some of the pain for consumers and mean the bigger hit to activity comes ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bahrain
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bahrain We have lowered our 2022 non-oil GDP growth forecast to 2.1% from 4.1% in December but our oil GDP forecast is raised to 6.0% from 1.0%. As a result, overall GDP growth this year is cut to 2.8% from 3.5% three months ago, before a further slowdown in 2023 ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Latvia
Country Economic Forecasts - Latvia The pandemic-induced downturn was reversed last year despite a Q4 slowdown due to new Covid19 restrictions, and GDP growth is forecast to stay close to 4% in 2022-23 despite the Russian invasion of Ukraine probably dampening trade and investment. Finance, exports ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Saudi Arabia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Saudi Arabia GAStat data for 2021 show the Saudi economy recovered faster than previously anticipated. GDP growth reached 3.3% last year, higher than our estimate of 2.4%, and we now forecast 3.9% growth in 2022. We expect 2.1% growth in the non-oil sector this y ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Angola
Country Economic Forecasts - Angola After five-straight years of recession, we estimate the Angola economy expanded by a marginal 0.3% in 2021 thanks to buoyant non-oil sector growth. We forecast real GDP growth will pick up to 2.8% this year – the best growth rate since 2014. The acceleration in ec ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Saudi Arabia
Country Economic Forecasts - Saudi Arabia GAStat data for 2021 show the Saudi economy recovered faster than previously anticipated. GDP growth reached 3.3% last year, higher than our estimate of 2.4%, and we now forecast 3.9% growth in 2022. We expect 2.1% growth in the non-oil sector this year and ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Hungary
Country Economic Forecasts - Hungary GDP surprised well to the upside in Q4 2021, expanding 2.1% q/q and bringing the annual growth rate for 2021 to 7.2%. Although the positive end to 2021 has brought strong carry-over effects into early 2022, caution is warranted. Record-high inflation will continu ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Zambia
Country Economic Forecasts - Zambia Strong merchandise trade performance on the back of favourable terms of trade, strengthening business conditions, and the restoration of policy credibility prompted a positive revision to our GDP growth estimation for 2021 to an above-consensus 3.7%. We have adjus ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Kenya
Country Economic Forecasts - Kenya Economic growth has surprised to the upside and has set the stage for resilient growth over the short- to medium term. As a result, we forecast real GDP growth to average 4.1% p.a. over the 2022-25 period, after rising by an estimated 7.6% in 2021. Our outlook is u ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Poland
Country Economic Forecasts - Poland High-frequency indicators show that Poland’s economy has maintained strong growth momentum so far in Q1. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will trim GDP growth this year through the impact on trade and commodity prices. It’s too early to incorporate the impact in o ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Israel
Country Economic Forecasts - Israel Our forecast for Israel’s GDP growth has been raised to 5.5% for 2022 and 3.5% in 2023, following higher than expected 7.8% GDP growth in 2021, led by a rapid decline in new cases of Covid-19, relaxation of travel restrictions and strong investment in the technolo ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Malaysia
Country Economic Forecasts - Malaysia The Malaysian economy exited recession with 6.5% q/q growth in Q4, as expected. After a bumpy 2021, we expect economic momentum to improve further in 2022. However, external risks have risen. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, tighter global monetary polic ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Russia
Country Economic Forecasts - Russia Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing sanctions will severely impact the economy. We have cut our 2022 GDP growth forecast by 0.7ppts to 2.5%, in line with our modelling of a “full-scale invasion" scenario. As harsher sanctions have just been announced, we ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore
Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore Despite an upward revision to 2021 GDP, we have become more cautious in our short-term growth outlook for Singapore given high inflation, policy tightening, and a weak external environment. In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, we foresee higher global e ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Argentina
Country Economic Forecasts - Argentina Argentina’s GDP grew by 10.3% in 2021, backed by strength in retail trade and manufacturing. Output is almost 5% above its pre-pandemic level and inflation is mounting, so we maintain our view that the economy might be overheating and expect GDP growth to slow ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic
Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic We currently maintain our GDP growth forecast at 3.4% this year as the Czech economy has emerged from the Omicron wave in line with our assumptions. However, we are likely to cut our forecast in light of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has pushed up ... Read More
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Weekly Economic Briefings - Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
Weekly Economic Briefings - Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing With Russia now intent on installing a puppet government in Ukraine, we have moved our global baseline in line with our scenario for a full-scale invasion. Equity returns around previous geopolitical events are mostly comforting f ... Read More
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