Category: International Trade
International Trade market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom Although GDP rose 0.8% in Q1, the monthly numbers showed that growth was concentrated entirely in the first month of the quarter. Output stagnated in February and fell slightly in March, meaning activity had lost momentum even before the full weight of cost ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Zambia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Zambia The passthrough effects of the Russia-Ukraine war on Zambia should transmit primarily through the terms-of-trade mechanism, considering the limited direct trade ties between the Southern African nation and the Black Sea countries. The energy price disru ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Inflation potentially topped out in March, but risks are tilted to the upside as resilient demand and constrained supply will keep price pressures from fading quickly. With inflation set to ease only gradually in H2 2022, we look for another 50bps Fed rate hike in June ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Nicaragua
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Nicaragua GDP growth rebounded by a stronger-than-expected 10.4% last year, driving output back to 2017 levels and compensating for the three-year long crisis caused by Ortega's administration. We expect Nicaragua’s GDP growth to slow to 2.5% this year as the ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US A sturdy rebound on Friday lessened the blow of another brutal week in the stock market, which notched its sixth consecutive weekly loss, the longest stretch of declines since 2011. Inflation worries and uncertainty over Fed policy continue to stoke investor angst, even ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Latin America - Mexico
Analysis by Region - Latin America - Mexico Soaring inflation, tighter financial conditions, and slower global growth continue to weigh on Mexico's outlook. We maintain our GDP growth forecast at 1.8% this year, in line with consensus, but we cut growth in 2023 by 0.1ppt to 2.5% growth. Direct e ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait We continue to see non-oil sector growth of 4.7% this year, after increasing by 3.1% in 2021, propelled by high consumer spending and robust real estate sales. Surging oil prices and increasing oil production are also helping economic growth. But there are ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States The US economy contracted in Q1 for the first time since the pandemic-driven recession ended, but the domestic economy showed resilience in the face of Omicron, lingering supply constraints, and high inflation. Intensifying headwinds from more aggre ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Canada
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Canada Canada’s economy successfully weathered the Omicron wave in Q1, but slower growth is on the horizon. An increasingly hawkish Bank of Canada, inflation at a four-decades high, fallout from the war in Ukraine, and a correction in house prices are all expecte ... Read More
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Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts
Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts Geopolitical tensions and supply concerns continue to support to commodity prices, especially energy. However, demand headwinds are gathering pace. High energy prices are taking their toll on economic activity globally. In China, indus ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific We expect the drivers of economic growth this year to shift from the export-driven manufacturing sector to services. The move to living with Covid will support stronger domestic demand this year and next, even though we expect higher inflation and business costs to ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain The impact of the Ukraine war continues to shape Spain's outlook as high inflation erodes real incomes and hits consumer confidence, leading to a fall in household spending. We see Spanish GDP growing 4.5% this year (down from our previous 4.8% forecast ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Chile
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Chile We've raised our 2022 GDP growth forecast for Chile by 0.5ppts to 1.5% to reflect stronger-than-expected data for March, suggesting a much better carry-over for the rest of the year. Yet the economy is still set to face a technical recession this year, ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Latin America - Costa Rica
Analysis by Region - Latin America - Costa Rica Costa Rica’s GDP is expected to grow 3.6% in 2022, 0.1ppts above our previous forecast, supported by a recovery in goods exports, rising tourism, and resilient private consumption. That said, since our last report, the global outlook has deteriorated, ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - South Africa
Analysis by Region - Africa - South Africa We reiterate our view of rising stagflation risks this round, with revisions to South Africa’s economic growth and inflation forecasts. Across the board sentiment is slowly souring, with the consensus forecast for South Africa real GDP growth in 2022 having ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone Data published this week reveal a clear divide between industry and services. Production data for March show that industrial activity was hit by new supply chain disruptions and soaring energy costs. Germany's data was particularly worrying, with a monthly dro ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom Though the MPC's decision to raise Bank Rate to 1% was predictable, the committee's confusing messaging meant that its future plans are much less clear. In particular, though their new forecasts show GDP falling in 2023, the MPC suggested further rat ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The FOMC this week raised the federal funds rate by 50bp, the first half-point increase in the funds rate in 22 years. The guidance from Fed Chair Powell was to expect more of the same at upcoming meetings and we look for 50bps rate hikes at both the June and July meeti ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
The Treasury curve bear-steepened this week. Front-end yields were little changed, but long-end yields surged, led by a rise of more than 20bp in bond yields as real yields led the move higher. US equities were little changed on the week as of late Friday morning despite an exceptional bout of volat ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guatemala
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guatemala We expect GDP growth in Honduras to cool to 2.9% this year and 2.7% in 2023, following a stronger-than-expected 12.5% expansion in 2021 that left output 2.4% above pre-pandemic levels, as support from remittances and US demand cools. Risks remain tilted ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guatemala
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guatemala Guatemala outperformed regional peers last year with a strong 8% GDP expansion that drove output 6% above pre-pandemic levels despite low Covid vaccination coverage. However, we expect growth to slow to 2.5% in 2022 and 2.6% in 2023 as output normalizes ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Hungary
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Hungary Economic data confirm that momentum has held up even after the onset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But the impact of war will weigh on the post-pandemic recovery, even if the process proves delayed compared to what was expected. First, the recent su ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Philippines
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Philippines We have kept our GDP growth forecasts for the Philippines at 6.8% for 2022 and 5.8% for 2023, but downside risks have risen due to lockdowns in China, which will worsen supply chain disruptions. This will further dampen foreign trade prospects amid th ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Poland
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Poland Current data point to the remarkable resilience of Poland's economy. Even should there be a marked slowdown in activity later in the year as the Ukraine war and tighter monetary policy weigh on spending, a strong Q1 growth performance will support this ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Our baseline forecast is for Ukraine's GDP to contract by about 35% this year, followed by a relatively shallow recovery in 2023 and 2024 (Chart 1). By 2027, we expect Ukraine's GDP will still be 13.5% below its pre-war levels. ... Read More
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