Category: International Trade
International Trade market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Treasury yields soared and the curve flattened sharply this week as rate hike expectations jumped. Two-year through 5-year yields were more than 30bp higher for the week as of early Friday afternoon, with the 2-year yield rising by the most since June 2009. The two-week ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Upside growth surprises in several economies in Q1 have triggered a small upward revision to our 2022 GDP growth forecast for the emerging markets (EMs), following a string of downgrades. We now see overall EM GDP expanding by 3.5% this year (versus 3.4% p ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore Singapore started the year on a strong note as a rebound in household spending lifted the final Q1 GDP, supporting our view of the reopening boosting the domestic recovery. But with another upward revision to our global oil price and inflation forecasts ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The intermediate sector of the curve led Treasury yields higher this past week. Three-year through 10-year yields were more than 20bp higher as of early Friday afternoon, which included the largest weekly increase in 3-year and 5-year yields in 10 weeks. The S&P Ind ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone Eurozone inflation climbed to a record high in May. The 8.1% headline number was driven mainly by food and energy inflation, which climbed 7.5% and 39%, respectively, year-over-year; but core inflation rose as well, by 0.3ppts to 3.8%. On the activity front, final ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Fed officials were likely pleased to see a slight downshift in the pace of employment and earnings growth in May, but there was nothing in the report to deter the Fed from aggressively continuing to raise rates. Some FOMC officials all but confirmed this week that the F ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Japan
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Japan We have lowered our 2022 GDP growth forecast for Japan to 2.0% from 2.2%, reflecting downgrades in China's growth outlook in the near term and weak Q1 growth. Lockdowns in China will weigh on Japan's rebound from a dip in Q1 via weak export demand an ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Although we don't expect widespread stagflation across EMs, risks have risen significantly given the relentless rise in commodity prices, higher global yields, and FX pressures. Our stagflation scorecard aggregates 12 vulnerability metrics that summari ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom Lending data suggests that housing market activity is cooling in response to the squeeze on household finances and rising interest rates. History suggests that soft landings are rare, but the high share of mortgagors on fixed-rate deals offers cause for opti ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland Poland's economy had a strong start to this year, with GDP expanding 2.5% q/q in Q1, beating our and consensus expectations. But despite substantial support from fiscal policy and solid nominal wage growth shielding real incomes, we continue to expe ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Europe - Ukraine
Analysis by Region - Europe - Ukraine Following a contraction by about 45% in March, the economy started to adjust in April, judging from high-frequency alternative sources of data. But this adjustment appears to have plateaued in May, as broken supply chains, destroyed infrastructure, displaced pop ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brazil
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brazil Economic data released in the past month back up our post-Ukraine invasion baseline forecast of stronger growth in H1 this year, accompanied by improved fiscal and external accounts. Our expectation of 0.9% GDP growth for Brazil in 2022 remains, but wit ... Read More
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Industry - Monthly Industry Briefings - Basic Metals
Industry - Monthly Industry Briefings - Basic Metals The outlook for global industrial output remains fairly subdued this year, with preliminary forecasts reporting growth of 3.5%, slightly down on April’s interim update. Soaring commodity prices alongside contractionary monetary policy are set to b ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Saudi Arabia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia sent a sizeable delegation of senior ministers to Davos, where it was praised by the World Economic Forum's president for its recent reform agenda. At the meeting, Saudi min ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Philippines
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Philippines We have raised our 2022 GDP growth forecast for the Philippines to 7.3% from 6.8% following a stronger-than-expected Q1 GDP print. Household spending once again underpinned the above-trend quarterly outcome. However, while we expect domestic demand ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Hungary
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Hungary The Hungarian economy has proved remarkably resilient so far this year. GDP grew a solid 2.1% q/q in Q1, likely due to strong domestic demand boosted by pre-election spending and government interventions to limit energy price growth. But headwinds to t ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic We have increased our Czech Republic growth forecast for 2022 by 0.5ppts to 2.4% to reflect stronger-than-expected growth of 0.7% q/q in Q1 thanks to a rebound in investment and resilient industrial production and exports of goods. But the outlook ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - China
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - China We have cut our 2022 GDP growth forecast for China by 0.8ppt to 4%. We forecast a quarterly contraction in Q2 before a recovery in H2, bolstered by policy stimulus. But we believe risks to our outlook are tilted to the downside, as the effectiveness of poli ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Latin America - Argentina
Analysis by Region - Latin America - Argentina Our 2022 Argentina GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.4%, as activity slowed towards the end of Q1 yet flashed a mild 0.9% q/q expansion. We now expect the economy to contract 1.5% q/q in Q2 as the central bank (BCRA) continues with its tighteni ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific We expect growth to remain robust this year amid a further easing of Covid containment restrictions and entry requirements for visitors, with services set to be an increasing driver of growth. But we have lowered our 2022 GDP growth forecast by 0.4ppt to 4.4% follow ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Malaysia
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Malaysia We have raised our 2022 GDP growth forecast by 1.3ppt to 7.2% following a 1.3% q/q rise in Q1 GDP and evidence of a faster-than-anticipated recovery in domestic demand. Boosted by stronger tourism following the reopening of borders on 1 April, we expect s ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The front-end led Treasury yields lower this week, steepening the curve. The 2-year yield was 10bp lower in late Friday morning trading, leading the gains as traders pared rate hike bets. Stocks bounced back after finding support last week at the 38% retracement of the ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom A £15bn package of fiscal aid to households will ease, if not eliminate, cost of living pressures. It’s still unclear what effect a more generous bills rebate will have on official inflation, but the targeted nature of the new support means any indirect ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Egypt
Analysis by Region - Africa - Egypt A cabinet statement made by Minister of Planning Hala Al-Said suggests that the economy may be much weaker than we are being led to believe. According to Al-Said, real GDP growth came in just above 5.0% y-o-y in Q1 2022, while the economy is expected to expand by ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone The eurozone economy continues to be shaped by a strong divergence between a weak industrial sector plagued by headwinds such as supply bottlenecks, higher input costs, and weakening sentiment, and a solid services sector, which is keeping the economy above water. ... Read More
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