Category: International Trade
International Trade market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US It will come as no surprise when the Fed lifts rates by another 75bps rate hike next week, so the focus will be more on any signals from Fed Chair Powell's press briefing and the FOMC's updated projections as to what comes next. We look for another 75bps of rate ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Indonesia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Indonesia We have further lowered our 2023 growth forecast to 5%, from 5.5% previously. The economy proved resilient to lockdowns in China and a palm oil export ban in Q2, with the 5.4% GDP expansion coming in stronger than our expectation. But that pace is unlik ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The long-end of the curve led Treasury yields higher this week as curve flattening trades were unwound. Bond yields were more than 15bp higher as of early Friday afternoon, which was the largest rise since May 6. Stocks were lower, partially in response to the higher yi ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kazakhstan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kazakhstan Kazakhstan's growth prospects for 2022-2023 have deteriorated further due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, with GDP growth slowing to 0.9% next year before rebounding strongly to 5.5% in 2024. The current slowdown has been exacerbated by sharply ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Angola
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Angola In line with the deterioration in our near-term global economic outlook and lower oil price forecast, we now expect Angola's economy to expand by 2.5% in 2022 versus our previous projection of 3.0%. Real GDP growth is still expected to be buoyed by ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Europe - France
Analysis by Region - Europe - France We have raised our 2022 GDP growth forecast for France by 0.4ppts to 2.7% after a 0.5% q/q GDP expansion in Q2 beat expectations. Services exports, investment, and inventories were the main drivers, more than offsetting a new contraction in consumption and export ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US July's core retail sales figures showed that consumers stepped up their buying activity as they entered Q3. Spending will receive a further boost in the coming months as consumer goods and energy price gains continue to slow. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Risk assets rallied and investors reassessed their Fed rate hike expectations after July CPI inflation came in below expectations. The inflation reprieve and lower inflation expectations in early August are welcome developments, but it's too early to declare victory ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Australia
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Australia Our outlook for GDP growth in 2022 is unchanged at 3.8%, but we have slightly lowered our 2023 forecast by 0.1ppt to 2.4%. Data released over the past month were mixed, with the first signs of the mounting headwinds facing households emerging. Retail sal ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Despite other signs of a slowing economy, the July employment report defied expectations and showed broad-based and accelerating job growth. Wage growth was also solid, which should continue to support consumer spending. On a more disappointing note, the labor force par ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The belly of the curve led Treasury yields lower this past week, and the curve was broadly steeper, as traders curtailed forward-looking rate hike expectations following Wednesday's FOMC meeting (Chart 1). That also spurred strong gains in equities and modest dollar ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The prospects for Congress to pass an even slimmed-down version of President Biden's Build Back Better agenda declined significantly last week, when Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) withdrew his support. Democrats may be able to salvage provisions affecting health care. T ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Fiery price increases in June catapulted headline CPI inflation above 9%, the fastest annual gain since November 1981. We don't see inflation pressures easing substantially in the near term, meaning household and corporate budgets will continue to be squeezed. Navig ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The labor market remained strong in June, highlighting the economy's resiliency amid a more challenging growth environment. The average monthly jobs increase of 375K in Q2 points to a healthy moderation from Q1's 539K average and we look for more tepid labor mar ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Monetary policies in Latin America have got even further ahead of the curve compared to last year, while in Emerging Europe, policy has remained tight. In contrast, Asia lags well behind these two regions. We base our conclusions on six metrics that benchm ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecast - Lebanon
Macro - Country Economic Forecast - Lebanon High-frequency data underscore the continued decline in Lebanon's economy, though there are tentative signs of an improvement in momentum. The May PMI survey climbed to the highest level since 2016; that said, it remains below the neutral 50-mark, indi ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom The key question for the MPC meeting in August is whether Bank Rate will rise by 25bps or 50bps. This week's prices data offered little evidence to justify the MPC acting more forcefully. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The Treasury curve bull steepened this week. A better than 20bp decline in the 3-year note yield as of early Friday afternoon led front-end through intermediate sector coupon yields significantly lower as traders pared Fed rate hike bets (details in Rates Outlook sectio ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Inflation is now the Fed's sole focus and we foresee an aggressive rate hike campaign. We now look for the Fed to raise the policy rate by 75bps at the upcoming July and September meetings due to our expectation of persistently high inflation through year-end and th ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Latin America - Argentina
Analysis by Region - Latin America - Argentina We upgraded Argentina’s GDP growth by 0.6ppt to 3.2% as data for early Q2 point to a robust recovery in the manufacturing sector while soaring inflation hints at economic overheating. We expect a slowdown in H2 2022 triggered by aggressive monetary tigh ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - South Korea
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - South Korea Rising inflation, tightening global financial conditions, and global supply-chain bottlenecks will weigh on South Korean growth. We maintain our conservative outlook and see South Korea's GDP growing 2.5% in 2022 and 2.4% in 2023. Key downside ris ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone A week after announcing the end of asset purchases and the start of a cycle of interest rate hikes, which caused bond yields to surge, the European Central Bank (ECB) has been forced to act to calm financial markets, announcing it will deploy a tool to cap surging ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US While Treasury bill yields surged this past week as markets adjusted to a 75bp rate hike from the FOMC, coupon yields were only modestly higher to wrap up an especially volatile week, led by 8bp increases in 2- and 3-year yields. Equities were hit hard again this week t ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom The MPC increased Bank Rate by 25bps to 1.25% this week. The minutes were very vague about the MPC's future plans, but we think prioritising fighting inflation over supporting activity plus the Fed's more aggressive approach will mean three more 25bp ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Russia's recession is likely to be shallower than we had projected at the start of its war in Ukraine. Consumer demand has contracted, but recent data suggest that the impact of the West's sanctions on Russia's economy has been more muted so fa ... Read More
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