Category: International Trade
International Trade market research reports by Oxford Economics
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The Fed told us this week that, while it slowed the pace of rate hikes, it will continue to raise rates until it is confident inflation is returning to its 2% target. Though the Fed is still aiming for a soft landing, their projections tell a different story. In fact, t ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Israel
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Israel We have raised our GDP growth forecast for Israel to 6% from 5.5% in 2022 reflecting robust Q3 economic growth of 0.5% q/q that was led by strong capital investment and government consumption. Whil ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland Poland's economy grew 1% q/q (4.5% y/y) in Q3, rebounding from 2.3% q/q contraction in Q2. The outturn almost matched our 0.9% q/q forecast, which was above consensus, and confirmed that the ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Zambia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Zambia We have revised our GDP growth forecast for 2022 to 2.4% from 2.1%, reflecting the impact of a slower-than-expected pickup in inflation and greater kwacha resilience on household expenditure and private sector consumption. That being said, we retain a b ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Dominican Republic
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Dominican Republic Our GDP growth forecast for the Dominican Republic in 2022 is unchanged at 5.2%, close to our estimate for its potential growth rate. However, we nudged down our 2023 forecast by 0.6ppts to 3.8%, because of global headwinds, stemming from mo ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Cuba
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Cuba Cuba's weak performance amid ongoing sanctions, repeated coronavirus waves, protests, and an attempt toward monetary normalization, has been hit by further headwinds. These include energy shortages, unofficial inflation running on triple digits, and a hu ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The economy is off to a better than anticipated start this quarter and we will likely be revising higher our forecast for Q4 GDP and, if the momentum continues, may need to delay the start of the recession in our forecast until Q2 of 2023. New data on retail sales were ... Read More
-
Macro - +I1+A2:A67+A2:A68+A2:A67
Macro - +I1+A2:A67+A2:A68+A2:A67 This week's preliminary GDP estimate delivered a rare piece of good news for the UK economy, with a q/q fall of 0.2% being much smaller than expected. The upside surprise reflected chunky upward revisions to July and August, which more than offset the drag from S ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Montenegro
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Montenegro We have downgraded our GDP growth forecast for Montenegro by 0.3ppts to 3.6% in 2022 and by 0.3ppts to 4% in 2023. The downgrade reflects growing inflationary pressures and recent political instability. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has continued to ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kosovo
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kosovo We have lowered our GDP growth forecasts for Kosovo by 0.3ppts to 3.1% in 2022 and by 0.1ppt to 3.5% in 2023. The Russia-Ukraine war has continued to fuel inflation, further eroding the purchasing power of many businesses and consumers. ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ethiopia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ethiopia At 3.8%, our estimate for 2021/22 GDP growth falls well below the consensus. The soft growth estimate reflects our concerns that, although growth in monetary aggregates hinted at a pick-up in domestic demand, household consumption softened in the face ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Indonesia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Indonesia We've significantly lowered our 2023 Indonesia growth forecast to 3.6% from 4.7%, reflecting another substantial revision to our US and world growth forecasts. We now project world GDP to grow just 1.2% in 2023, down from 1.7% last month. At the sam ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - MENA - Qatar
Analysis by Region - MENA - Qatar The ongoing preparations for the World Cup propelled growth in Qatar's non-oil sector to 9.7% y/y in Q2, the fastest rate of growth since mid-2015. This, alongside expectations of activity benefitting from an influx of visitors in the near term, has prompted us ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Denmark
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Denmark We have raised our 2022 GDP growth forecast for Denmark by 0.5ppts to 2.7% after national accounts showed a stronger H1 performance. However, we have cut our 2023 forecast by 0.4ppts to 0.1%, and we now believe the Danish economy is set to contract for th ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden We have lowered our 2023 GDP forecast for Sweden by 0.9ppts to a 0.1% contraction, amid more front-loaded monetary policy tightening and signs of a broad-based weakening in activity. Inflation continues to rise and underlying pressures are intensifying, th ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Thailand
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Thailand We've left our 2022 Thailand GDP growth forecast unchanged at 3.6% as reopening tailwinds, including an easing in regional international travel restrictions, will support domestic demand and a solid recovery in service-sector activity. Indeed, tourism ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sudan
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sudan The military junta's unwillingness to relinquish power to civilian leaders continues to obstruct Sudan's economic progress. The political impasse will continue to hinder the country's growth – we expect the economy to narrowly escape a contra ... Read More
-
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United States
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United States US industrial growth has slowed in the face of high inflation, slowing export growth, declining inventories, and shifting consumer preferences towards services. Q2 GDP fell by -0.6%%, dragged by declining residential investment, declining constru ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US It will come as no surprise when the Fed lifts rates by another 75bps rate hike next week, so the focus will be more on any signals from Fed Chair Powell's press briefing and the FOMC's updated projections as to what comes next. We look for another 75bps of rate ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Indonesia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Indonesia We have further lowered our 2023 growth forecast to 5%, from 5.5% previously. The economy proved resilient to lockdowns in China and a palm oil export ban in Q2, with the 5.4% GDP expansion coming in stronger than our expectation. But that pace is unlik ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The long-end of the curve led Treasury yields higher this week as curve flattening trades were unwound. Bond yields were more than 15bp higher as of early Friday afternoon, which was the largest rise since May 6. Stocks were lower, partially in response to the higher yi ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kazakhstan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kazakhstan Kazakhstan's growth prospects for 2022-2023 have deteriorated further due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, with GDP growth slowing to 0.9% next year before rebounding strongly to 5.5% in 2024. The current slowdown has been exacerbated by sharply ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Angola
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Angola In line with the deterioration in our near-term global economic outlook and lower oil price forecast, we now expect Angola's economy to expand by 2.5% in 2022 versus our previous projection of 3.0%. Real GDP growth is still expected to be buoyed by ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Europe - France
Analysis by Region - Europe - France We have raised our 2022 GDP growth forecast for France by 0.4ppts to 2.7% after a 0.5% q/q GDP expansion in Q2 beat expectations. Services exports, investment, and inventories were the main drivers, more than offsetting a new contraction in consumption and export ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US July's core retail sales figures showed that consumers stepped up their buying activity as they entered Q3. Spending will receive a further boost in the coming months as consumer goods and energy price gains continue to slow. ... Read More
Research Assistance
