Category: Service Industries
Service Industries market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cameroon
The government's budgeted spending plans for the current fiscal year (FY, January to December 2025) are conservative. Yet, as is usually the case, we expect a supplementary budget to lift these spending targets halfway through the year. The budget also plans to reduce subsidies. While this is so ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Malawi
We forecast Malawi's real GDP growth to recover to 2.6% this year from 1.7% in 2024. The improved forecast is based on an improved outlook for rainfall compared with last year's severe drought and the expected reopening of a uranium mine in September. However, the economy continues to be pla ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
The Monetary Policy Committee voted to cut Bank Rate by 25bps to 4.5% at its meeting this week. Though the vote split appeared dovish at first glance, we think it has little relevance for the monetary policy outlook. Of more importance was the MPC's updated forecasts, which showed inflation abov ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
We are updating our baseline forecast to include a more aggressive ramp up in tariffs, reflecting the increased tariffs on China that went into effect this week and the temporary reprieve from tariffs on Mexico and Canada. As a result, we now think economic growth will slow a little, inflation will ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
US President Donald Trump's announcement of an additional 10% tariff on imports from China was in line with our baseline expectation. But the immediacy of implementation, the blanket style of tariffs, and the inclusion of stronger language around retaliation in US policy documents still add sign ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa
Uganda's short- to medium-term economic growth prospects continue to be supported by strong performances across different sectors: energy, agriculture, mining, manufacturing, and tourism. We consequently lifted our 2025 economic growth projection to 5.1% from 4.9%. Business sentiment remains pos ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Saudi Arabia
Preliminary Q4 estimates show Saudi GDP aligning with our expectations of 4.4% y/y growth, an increase from 3% in the previous quarter. This brings overall 2024 growth to 1.4%, in line with our projections. The non-oil sector continues to strengthen due to diversification efforts, as reflected in a ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Namibia
Namibia's economic growth slowed at the back end of last year because of cuts in diamond production and drought-induced losses in agricultural output. The external outlook has weakened somewhat since our previous forecast due to subdued expectations of global monetary policy easing and uncertain ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - North Korea
We think growth this year will likely fall back to a more moderate pace, after GDP growth in 2024 had likely continued the quick 3% pace from 2023. Long-term growth will stay weak due to sanctions and soft consumer demand from the country's main trading partner, China. The surge in ammunition an ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Lesotho
Lesotho's economy recovered in Q3 2024, expanding by 3.6% y/y compared with 0.7% y/y in the previous quarter. The services and industrial sectors posted notable growth, especially in retail, construction, and water & electricity subsectors. We expect economic growth to accelerate to 2.8% in ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ukraine
Ukraine is entering its fourth year of war with an economy that is suffering from crucial destruction of energy infrastructure and manufacturing capacities, labour shortages, and rising inflation. But it is supported by high spending on defence and a broadly stable macroeconomic environment, enabled ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Hungary
We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Hungary by 0.5ppts to 1.7%, following an estimated 0.5% expansion in 2024. The economy emerged from recession in Q4, matching our growth forecast of 0.5% q/q. But we expect the ensuing recovery to be gradual at best due to soft foreign demand and tight ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Japan
We've maintained our GDP growth forecasts for Japan at 1.2% in 2025. We continue to expect the economy will grow in the coming quarters, following a slight GDP contraction in 2024, as a recovery in households' real income will support consumption. Amid gradual economic growth, we believe the ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Israel
We now expect the Israel-Hamas war will likely end in Q1 as the ceasefire came into effect at the start of this year. So, we've upgraded our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Israel to 3.6%. We think the recovery in investment as the risk premium falls, and the return to full-time employment for rese ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Qatar
We've kept our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Qatar unchanged at 2.1% and expect growth will more than double next year as the additional LNG capacity starts up. The non-energy sector will remain the primary growth engine in the near term after expanding by an estimated 3.2% last year. The planned ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Latvia
We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Latvia by 0.4ppts to 2.3%. While we estimate a modest pick-up in activity in the final quarter of 2024 ended the year-long recession, the momentum at the turn of the year was soft. We expect recovery will proceed this year, setting the stage for the abo ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Hong Kong SAR
We continue to think Hong Kong's economy will grow by 2% y/y this year, softening from an expected 2.5% expansion last year. Risks to this outlook are evenly balanced. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates
Growth in the non-oil economy had strong momentum heading into 2025, with Abu Dhabi’s Q3 2024 data pointing to a robust non-oil expansion. December's PMI climbed to 55.4 from 54.2 in November, the sharpest rise in new orders in nine months. We see this momentum carrying forward with 4.8% non-oil ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore
We've lowered our forecast for Singapore's GDP growth this year by 0.3ppts to 3.0%, following a 4.0% expansion in 2024. The downgrade largely reflects a higher base for comparison after Q1-Q3 2024 figures were revised upwards. Growing external headwinds point to slowing momentum, which could ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic
We expect Czech GDP growth of 2.4% for 2025 but acknowledge the many downside risks. We estimate the Czech economy grew by 0.4% q/q in Q4 2024, resulting in a solid carryover into this year. Steady growth in consumer spending, underpinned by healthy real earnings growth, will likely continue to driv ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Romania
We've maintained our GDP growth forecast for Romania at 2.8% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. We expect the economy to regain some momentum after its recent soft patch, with solid growth in consumer spending and investment likely to be the principal drivers of this upturn. However, the ongoing weakness ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Philippines
The Philippines' economy grew by 5.6% in 2024, falling short of the government’s target of 6%-6.5%. However, we expect growth to pick up in 2025 as it will likely be supported by more accommodative monetary policy and well-contained inflation. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - China
The remarkable GDP outperformance at the end of last year raises our annual growth forecast for this year mechanically to 4.7%, from 4.4%. Under the hood of this 'upgrade', however, the economy is expected to grind along at an (even slower) average sequential pace of just 1%. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Switzerland
We've maintained our sporting event adjusted GDP growth estimates for Switzerland at 1.4% for 2025 and 1.5% for 2026. Current indicators suggest an ongoing bifurcated development characterised by solid private consumption and ongoing weak demand for traditional industry goods. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - South Korea
We've downgraded our 2025 GDP growth forecast for South Korea by 0.3ppts to 1.6% y/y. Growth momentum in Q4 2024 stayed soft at 0.1% q/q sa, and consumption is set to recover more gradually than we had anticipated. Loan growth slowed down to a nine-month low in December, too. That said, last mon ... Read More
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