Category: Service Industries
Service Industries market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Aruba
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Aruba We have upgraded our 2024 GDP growth estimate for Aruba to 5.6% and have lowered our forecast for 2025 by 0.2 ppts to 4.1%. A stronger US economy than in our previous forecast and continued infrastructure investment contributed to our 2024 revisions. Mea ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
Analysis by Region - MENA We've raised our GDP growth forecasts for Jordan to 2.4% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2025. Although the ongoing regional conflict has caused tourism income to decline by 4.3% y/y over the first nine months of this year, stronger performances in the manufacturing sector and net ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
Analysis by Region - MENA We've cut our 2024 GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppts to a 2.0% contraction, and expect a 2.6% expansion next year. Our revision reflects an extension by OPEC+ of the voluntary oil production cuts until at least January due to concerns over weak demand. We expect the cuts w ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bahamas, The
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bahamas, The We expect real GDP growth for the Bahamas will cool to 1.7% in 2025 from 2.1% this year. This fall in growth reflects the convergence of the economy towards its medium-term potential. Consistent with this view, we forecast inflation will settle at 2% ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Angola
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Angola Following buoyant growth in H1 2024, we expect the Angolan economy to cool moderately in H2 2024 and 2025 due to a slower expansion in the oil sector, widespread drought in the southeast, and intermittent foreign exchange shortages. Elevated inflation a ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets We've nudged up our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Kosovo by 0.2ppts to 3.9%. This reflects our view that private consumption is gaining momentum as inflation falls faster than we anticipated. With interest rates falling and inflation cooling, we anticipate a ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Barbados
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Barbados We've raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Barbados by 0.2ppts to 3.4% and expect growth of 2.8% for 2025. We think significant increases in long-stay visitor arrivals, as well as major construction projects, will sustain growth for the rest of th ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guyana
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guyana We have cut our GDP growth forecasts for Guyana by 2.7ppts to 22.5% in 2025 and by 2.9ppts to 14.2% in 2026 to reflect a more bearish outlook for global oil prices. In the medium term, we forecast a sustained period of 4% growth given waning base effects a ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Anguilla
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Anguilla We have marginally revised up our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Anguilla by 0.1ppt to 4.7% y/y. Tourism continues to drive growth, alongside the exponential increase in demand for the country's domain name '.ai' and the anticipated gradual imp ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Antigua and Barbuda
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Antigua and Barbuda We have cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Antigua and Barbuda by 1.4ppts to 2.8% y/y. We think the momentum from the post-pandemic recovery in tourism numbers will subside and growth levels will be closer to the economy's long-run poten ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Armenia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Armenia We estimate 2024 GDP growth of 6.8% for Armenia and project growth will slow to 3.4% in 2025. Growth in 2024 has been broad-based, as all main domestic demand components have increased. In 2025, the key contributors to growth will be narrower, mainly d ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Syrian Arab Republic
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Syrian Arab Republic We've lowered our estimate for Syria's GDP in 2024 by 0.5ppts to a 1.8% y/y contraction. The downward revision reflects inflation rates that continue to soar above expectations, persistent currency depreciation, spillovers from the wi ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Zimbabwe
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Zimbabwe The recent El Niño-induced drought has heightened the demand for food imports, worsening the balance of payments and depleting foreign exchange reserves. Disaster relief efforts have further strained fiscal spending, adding to pressure on the cur ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Grenada
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Grenada We have cut our 2025 growth forecast for Grenada by 0.4ppts to 3.7%. We think this summer's Hurricane Beryl, which wrecked infrastructure and housing in the northern islands of Carriacou and Petit Martinique, will leave a lasting mark on the supply si ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Luxembourg
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Luxembourg We've upgraded our GDP growth forecast for Luxembourg to 1.4% for this year and revised down our 2025 forecast to 2.5%. In Q2, GDP expanded by 0.6% q/q and data revisions show a 0.7% q/q uptick in Q1. Luxembourg's economy is set to outpace grow ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Europe
Analysis by Region - Europe We forecast Turkmenistan's GDP growth will pick up to 4.1% in 2025, an improvement from recent years. Stabilising natural gas prices and stronger-than-expected population growth will be the main growth drivers next year as the economy strengthens from several years of ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Montenegro
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Montenegro We've raised our GDP growth forecasts for Montenegro by 0.2ppts, to 3.8% for 2024 and to 3.2% for next year. We expect solid growth at the tail end of this year as inflation continues to ease and monetary policy loosens. The ongoing Russia-Ukrai ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Costa Rica
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Costa Rica We've raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Costa Rica by 1ppt to 3.2%. The recent cuts by the Central Bank of Costa Rica to its policy rate will likely support private demand next year. Investment and the external sector have been more resilient ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guadeloupe
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Guadeloupe We have revised up our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Guadeloupe by 1.7ppts to 2.7%, as growth in tourism continues to drive exports. Although inflation is expected to decline to 1.7% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026, we don't anticipate a strong recovery in ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bermuda
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bermuda We now forecast real GDP for Bermuda will grow by 4.4% in 2024, and a further 3.7% in 2025. This is close to the emerging markets average of 4.1% for this year and 4.0% for next. Bermuda's mid-year budget review was exceedingly positive, announcing ec ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - North Macedonia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - North Macedonia We have raised our inflation forecast for North Macedonia to 4.2% in 2025 from 2.5%. The North Macedonian government has capped food profit margins to combat rising inflation. We think this policy will take effect at the end of 2024, leading us to ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Virgin Islands (US)
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Virgin Islands (US) We upgraded our 2025 GDP forecast for the US Virgin Islands by 1.3ppts to 2.7% y/y. This is to reflect the significant investment and funding of infrastructure that the territory is set to receive in the upcoming year. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Georgia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Georgia Business sentiment indicators for Georgia have dipped across the board in recent months, with the headline index down 10 points for Q4 2024, suggesting growth may be losing some steam. In 2025 we expect growth to moderate to 3.7%, closer to trend levels, ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Mongolia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Mongolia Strong growth in quarterly wage data and a less inflationary environment in Mongolia should encourage consumption in H2 2024 and into 2025. Consequently, we have raised our GDP forecast for 2025 to 6% y/y. For 2024, we expect Mongolia’s GDP to grow ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Vietnam
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Vietnam We expect Vietnam's GDP will grow by 6.7% this year and 6.5% next. Strong industrial production in July and August offset the weakness in September this year despite the impact from Typhoon Yagi. Manufacturing will continue to be the primary engine ... Read More
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