Category: Service Industries
Service Industries market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Peru
We have cut our GDP growth forecast by 0.3ppts to 2.6%, due to a highly uncertain backdrop amid a potential trade war under Trump’s second term. Even though the direct impact of US tariffs should be relatively small, we consider that secondary effects such as lower global trade and less business con ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa
Ethiopia has maintained its fiscal consolidation and policy reform path, performing well in terms of meeting its IMF Extended Credit Facility (ECF) targets in H2 2024. The ECF disbursals and World Bank facilities alleviated acute FX pressures in 2024, while strong coffee export receipts provided fur ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden
We've lowered our near-term GDP growth forecasts for Sweden by 0.2ppts to 2.2% in 2025 and by 0.3ppts to 2.2% in 2026. We now expect an across-the-board tariff of 10% to be applied on the EU by the US, which will dampen exports and investment. Meanwhile, higher inflation and uncertainty will neg ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belgium
We forecast the Belgian economy will expand by 1.1% this year and 1.6% next, as tight monetary policy unwinds and manufacturing recovers. However, tariffs and trade uncertainty will limit growth. We expect inflation will average 2.2% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, with tariffs hindering the disinflationa ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Our GDP growth forecasts for Argentina are unchanged at a below-consensus 3.6% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026. The strong recovery in Q3 2024 and resilience in Q4 2024 suggest a slowdown in the current quarter (0.0% q/q). The RIGI scheme to attract investment adds an upside risk to growth, while the La ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Botswana
After a poor performance in the first half of last year, Botswana’s diamond industry continued to disappoint in Q3 2024, declining by 14.8% q/q. Although De Beers' latest production report indicates that Botswana’s diamond output rose in the final quarter of 2024, the production guidance for 202 ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Our cross-country modelling suggests that household savings-to-GDP ratios in EMs are likely to increase in the medium term, based on our forecasts projecting rising real disposable incomes across EMs. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
The narrative surrounding policymaking and its near-term economic impact has shifted dramatically from the January to February baseline forecast. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Argentina
Our GDP growth forecasts for Argentina are unchanged at a below-consensus 3.6% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026. The strong recovery in Q3 2024 and resilience in Q4 2024 suggest a slowdown in the current quarter (0.0% q/q). The RIGI scheme to attract investment adds an upside risk to growth, while the La ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cameroon
The government's budgeted spending plans for the current fiscal year (FY, January to December 2025) are conservative. Yet, as is usually the case, we expect a supplementary budget to lift these spending targets halfway through the year. The budget also plans to reduce subsidies. While this is so ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Malawi
We forecast Malawi's real GDP growth to recover to 2.6% this year from 1.7% in 2024. The improved forecast is based on an improved outlook for rainfall compared with last year's severe drought and the expected reopening of a uranium mine in September. However, the economy continues to be pla ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Saudi Arabia
Preliminary Q4 estimates show Saudi GDP aligning with our expectations of 4.4% y/y growth, an increase from 3% in the previous quarter. This brings overall 2024 growth to 1.4%, in line with our projections. The non-oil sector continues to strengthen due to diversification efforts, as reflected in a ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Namibia
Namibia's economic growth slowed at the back end of last year because of cuts in diamond production and drought-induced losses in agricultural output. The external outlook has weakened somewhat since our previous forecast due to subdued expectations of global monetary policy easing and uncertain ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - North Korea
We think growth this year will likely fall back to a more moderate pace, after GDP growth in 2024 had likely continued the quick 3% pace from 2023. Long-term growth will stay weak due to sanctions and soft consumer demand from the country's main trading partner, China. The surge in ammunition an ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Lesotho
Lesotho's economy recovered in Q3 2024, expanding by 3.6% y/y compared with 0.7% y/y in the previous quarter. The services and industrial sectors posted notable growth, especially in retail, construction, and water & electricity subsectors. We expect economic growth to accelerate to 2.8% in ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Israel
We now expect the Israel-Hamas war will likely end in Q1 as the ceasefire came into effect at the start of this year. So, we've upgraded our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Israel to 3.6%. We think the recovery in investment as the risk premium falls, and the return to full-time employment for rese ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Latvia
We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Latvia by 0.4ppts to 2.3%. While we estimate a modest pick-up in activity in the final quarter of 2024 ended the year-long recession, the momentum at the turn of the year was soft. We expect recovery will proceed this year, setting the stage for the abo ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates
Growth in the non-oil economy had strong momentum heading into 2025, with Abu Dhabi’s Q3 2024 data pointing to a robust non-oil expansion. December's PMI climbed to 55.4 from 54.2 in November, the sharpest rise in new orders in nine months. We see this momentum carrying forward with 4.8% non-oil ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - South Korea
We've downgraded our 2025 GDP growth forecast for South Korea by 0.3ppts to 1.6% y/y. Growth momentum in Q4 2024 stayed soft at 0.1% q/q sa, and consumption is set to recover more gradually than we had anticipated. Loan growth slowed down to a nine-month low in December, too. That said, last mon ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Vietnam
We expect Vietnam's GDP will grow by 6.9% this year, following a 7.1% expansion in 2024. Manufacturing exports will continue to be the main engine of growth this year, particularly electronics exports. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Algeria
Algeria's oil output remains below historical levels due to the country’s agreement to cut oil output within the Opec+ group. The group extended cuts through Q1 due to lower-than-expected global oil demand, but it could be even longer if the group again misses its demand forecast for the year. I ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Oman
We forecast Oman's GDP growth at 2.2% for this year, higher than the 1.5% estimate for 2024. In our 2025 growth outlook, we balance the delayed return to growth in the energy sector with a steady expansion of non-energy output, which we project at 3.0% (up from 2.8% previously). We think activit ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia
We raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Croatia 0.8ppts to 2.6%. Sizeable historical revisions suggest that the economy was aggressively destocking last year. A gradual restocking process as industrial fortunes turn should support a quicker rebound than we expected. Over the next few years, GDP g ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Rwanda
Economic growth in Rwanda will likely lose momentum this year following a surprisingly better performance in 2024. We forecast real GDP to grow by 7.2% in 2025, following an estimated expansion of 8.7% last year. Below-average rainfall is predicted over H1 2025, which could diminish crop harvests wi ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Austria
We've revised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Austria to 0.5% from 0.9% following still inauspicious sentiment data and lacklustre economic activity from end-2024. This indicates no impending turnaround. Industrial production remains dismal and we don't expect an imminent pickup in activity ... Read More
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