Category: Service Industries
Service Industries market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Although we don't expect widespread stagflation across EMs, risks have risen significantly given the relentless rise in commodity prices, higher global yields, and FX pressures. Our stagflation scorecard aggregates 12 vulnerability metrics that summari ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom Lending data suggests that housing market activity is cooling in response to the squeeze on household finances and rising interest rates. History suggests that soft landings are rare, but the high share of mortgagors on fixed-rate deals offers cause for opti ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland Poland's economy had a strong start to this year, with GDP expanding 2.5% q/q in Q1, beating our and consensus expectations. But despite substantial support from fiscal policy and solid nominal wage growth shielding real incomes, we continue to expe ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Europe - Ukraine
Analysis by Region - Europe - Ukraine Following a contraction by about 45% in March, the economy started to adjust in April, judging from high-frequency alternative sources of data. But this adjustment appears to have plateaued in May, as broken supply chains, destroyed infrastructure, displaced pop ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brazil
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brazil Economic data released in the past month back up our post-Ukraine invasion baseline forecast of stronger growth in H1 this year, accompanied by improved fiscal and external accounts. Our expectation of 0.9% GDP growth for Brazil in 2022 remains, but wit ... Read More
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Industry - Monthly Industry Briefings - Basic Metals
Industry - Monthly Industry Briefings - Basic Metals The outlook for global industrial output remains fairly subdued this year, with preliminary forecasts reporting growth of 3.5%, slightly down on April’s interim update. Soaring commodity prices alongside contractionary monetary policy are set to b ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Saudi Arabia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia sent a sizeable delegation of senior ministers to Davos, where it was praised by the World Economic Forum's president for its recent reform agenda. At the meeting, Saudi min ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Philippines
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Philippines We have raised our 2022 GDP growth forecast for the Philippines to 7.3% from 6.8% following a stronger-than-expected Q1 GDP print. Household spending once again underpinned the above-trend quarterly outcome. However, while we expect domestic demand ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Hungary
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Hungary The Hungarian economy has proved remarkably resilient so far this year. GDP grew a solid 2.1% q/q in Q1, likely due to strong domestic demand boosted by pre-election spending and government interventions to limit energy price growth. But headwinds to t ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic We have increased our Czech Republic growth forecast for 2022 by 0.5ppts to 2.4% to reflect stronger-than-expected growth of 0.7% q/q in Q1 thanks to a rebound in investment and resilient industrial production and exports of goods. But the outlook ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - China
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - China We have cut our 2022 GDP growth forecast for China by 0.8ppt to 4%. We forecast a quarterly contraction in Q2 before a recovery in H2, bolstered by policy stimulus. But we believe risks to our outlook are tilted to the downside, as the effectiveness of poli ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Latin America - Argentina
Analysis by Region - Latin America - Argentina Our 2022 Argentina GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.4%, as activity slowed towards the end of Q1 yet flashed a mild 0.9% q/q expansion. We now expect the economy to contract 1.5% q/q in Q2 as the central bank (BCRA) continues with its tighteni ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific We expect growth to remain robust this year amid a further easing of Covid containment restrictions and entry requirements for visitors, with services set to be an increasing driver of growth. But we have lowered our 2022 GDP growth forecast by 0.4ppt to 4.4% follow ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Malaysia
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Malaysia We have raised our 2022 GDP growth forecast by 1.3ppt to 7.2% following a 1.3% q/q rise in Q1 GDP and evidence of a faster-than-anticipated recovery in domestic demand. Boosted by stronger tourism following the reopening of borders on 1 April, we expect s ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The front-end led Treasury yields lower this week, steepening the curve. The 2-year yield was 10bp lower in late Friday morning trading, leading the gains as traders pared rate hike bets. Stocks bounced back after finding support last week at the 38% retracement of the ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom A £15bn package of fiscal aid to households will ease, if not eliminate, cost of living pressures. It’s still unclear what effect a more generous bills rebate will have on official inflation, but the targeted nature of the new support means any indirect ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Egypt
Analysis by Region - Africa - Egypt A cabinet statement made by Minister of Planning Hala Al-Said suggests that the economy may be much weaker than we are being led to believe. According to Al-Said, real GDP growth came in just above 5.0% y-o-y in Q1 2022, while the economy is expected to expand by ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone The eurozone economy continues to be shaped by a strong divergence between a weak industrial sector plagued by headwinds such as supply bottlenecks, higher input costs, and weakening sentiment, and a solid services sector, which is keeping the economy above water. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway Norwegian mainland GDP declined by 0.6% q/q in Q1. Despite strongly growth in both February and March, a low starting point from weaker activity around the turn of the year caused the contraction. With the economy back close to its November 2021 peak in Ma ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands The Dutch economy started 2022 a bit weaker than we expected, with GDP stagnating in Q1. As a result of this and the renewed supply-chain disruptions from the lockdowns in China, we have lowered our GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppt this year to 3.1%, but ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Syrian Arab Republic
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Syrian Arab Republic Political unrest, a crumbling currency, and a meagre 8.9% fully vaccinated population have served to reduce our outlook on the Syrian economy; as such, we are lowering our 2022 GDP forecast from 5.2% to 4.3%, and from 4.4% to 4.2% in 2023. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Guyana
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Guyana We expect new oil discoveries will continue to drive Guyana's economic expansion and forecast GDP to grow by 48.7% in 2022 following a 19.9% rise in 2021. ExxonMobil, the largest operator in offshore Guyana, made three new oil discoveries this month ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Colombia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Colombia Strong Q1 2022 national accounts data forced us to revisit our GDP growth estimate to 4.3% this year, from 3.8% previously. But the Colombian economy is likely to experience a technical recession this year, on the back of a sharper tightening in domes ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India We have lowered our 2022 India GDP growth forecast to 6.9% from 7.3% and the 2023 forecast to 5.5% from 5.8%. The downgrades reflect the impact from higher inflationary pressures, less accommodative monetary conditions, and the significant deterioration in ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Hong Kong SAR
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Hong Kong SAR We have lowered our 2022 Hong Kong GDP growth forecast to just 0.1% from 1% previously, mainly reflecting the worse-than-expected GDP contraction of 3% q/q in Q1 and the downgrade to our China GDP growth forecast. But we expect stronger growth of 4. ... Read More
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