Category: Service Industries
Service Industries market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets We maintain that India's current account deficit will widen substantially to around 3% of GDP in 2022, despite the share of Urals in crude imports rising rapidly in recent months, to nearly 20% in June. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The labor market remained strong in June, highlighting the economy's resiliency amid a more challenging growth environment. The average monthly jobs increase of 375K in Q2 points to a healthy moderation from Q1's 539K average and we look for more tepid labor mar ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Monetary policies in Latin America have got even further ahead of the curve compared to last year, while in Emerging Europe, policy has remained tight. In contrast, Asia lags well behind these two regions. We base our conclusions on six metrics that benchm ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecast - Lebanon
Macro - Country Economic Forecast - Lebanon High-frequency data underscore the continued decline in Lebanon's economy, though there are tentative signs of an improvement in momentum. The May PMI survey climbed to the highest level since 2016; that said, it remains below the neutral 50-mark, indi ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom The key question for the MPC meeting in August is whether Bank Rate will rise by 25bps or 50bps. This week's prices data offered little evidence to justify the MPC acting more forcefully. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The Treasury curve bull steepened this week. A better than 20bp decline in the 3-year note yield as of early Friday afternoon led front-end through intermediate sector coupon yields significantly lower as traders pared Fed rate hike bets (details in Rates Outlook sectio ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Inflation is now the Fed's sole focus and we foresee an aggressive rate hike campaign. We now look for the Fed to raise the policy rate by 75bps at the upcoming July and September meetings due to our expectation of persistently high inflation through year-end and th ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Latin America - Argentina
Analysis by Region - Latin America - Argentina We upgraded Argentina’s GDP growth by 0.6ppt to 3.2% as data for early Q2 point to a robust recovery in the manufacturing sector while soaring inflation hints at economic overheating. We expect a slowdown in H2 2022 triggered by aggressive monetary tigh ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - South Korea
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - South Korea Rising inflation, tightening global financial conditions, and global supply-chain bottlenecks will weigh on South Korean growth. We maintain our conservative outlook and see South Korea's GDP growing 2.5% in 2022 and 2.4% in 2023. Key downside ris ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone A week after announcing the end of asset purchases and the start of a cycle of interest rate hikes, which caused bond yields to surge, the European Central Bank (ECB) has been forced to act to calm financial markets, announcing it will deploy a tool to cap surging ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US While Treasury bill yields surged this past week as markets adjusted to a 75bp rate hike from the FOMC, coupon yields were only modestly higher to wrap up an especially volatile week, led by 8bp increases in 2- and 3-year yields. Equities were hit hard again this week t ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom The MPC increased Bank Rate by 25bps to 1.25% this week. The minutes were very vague about the MPC's future plans, but we think prioritising fighting inflation over supporting activity plus the Fed's more aggressive approach will mean three more 25bp ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Russia's recession is likely to be shallower than we had projected at the start of its war in Ukraine. Consumer demand has contracted, but recent data suggest that the impact of the West's sanctions on Russia's economy has been more muted so fa ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The FOMC raised interest rates by 75bps this week and Chairman Powell indicated another 75bps or 50bps is likely in July depending on incoming economic data, notably inflation readings. The revised FOMC projections point to more than 200bps in additional rate hikes by t ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Turkey
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Turkey Turkey's economic performance surprised to the upside in Q1, prompting an upward revision to our 2022 GDP growth forecast, which we now see expanding at a 3% pace, 0.9ppts higher than a month ago. However, the surge in inflation is swiftly eroding purc ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Hopes that peak inflation was in the rear-view mirror were squashed after CPI inflation rose to a new 40-year high in May. The pinch from high inflation is real, but strong consumer spending and labor market fundamentals will keep the economy in expansion mode, with GDP ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone After months (even years) of debates and swings, the ECB effectively embarked this week on a tightening cycle to fight "undesirably elevated" inflation. Although the announcement was widely expected, it still marks the end of an era. Net asset purchases, ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom The message sent by May's UK PMIs of an economy suffering a loss of momentum but still under strong inflationary pressures, captures the dilemma facing the MPC in advance of June's interest rate decision. Rates are likely to rise again, but division ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Treasury yields soared and the curve flattened sharply this week as rate hike expectations jumped. Two-year through 5-year yields were more than 30bp higher for the week as of early Friday afternoon, with the 2-year yield rising by the most since June 2009. The two-week ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Upside growth surprises in several economies in Q1 have triggered a small upward revision to our 2022 GDP growth forecast for the emerging markets (EMs), following a string of downgrades. We now see overall EM GDP expanding by 3.5% this year (versus 3.4% p ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore Singapore started the year on a strong note as a rebound in household spending lifted the final Q1 GDP, supporting our view of the reopening boosting the domestic recovery. But with another upward revision to our global oil price and inflation forecasts ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The intermediate sector of the curve led Treasury yields higher this past week. Three-year through 10-year yields were more than 20bp higher as of early Friday afternoon, which included the largest weekly increase in 3-year and 5-year yields in 10 weeks. The S&P Ind ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone Eurozone inflation climbed to a record high in May. The 8.1% headline number was driven mainly by food and energy inflation, which climbed 7.5% and 39%, respectively, year-over-year; but core inflation rose as well, by 0.3ppts to 3.8%. On the activity front, final ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Fed officials were likely pleased to see a slight downshift in the pace of employment and earnings growth in May, but there was nothing in the report to deter the Fed from aggressively continuing to raise rates. Some FOMC officials all but confirmed this week that the F ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Japan
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Japan We have lowered our 2022 GDP growth forecast for Japan to 2.0% from 2.2%, reflecting downgrades in China's growth outlook in the near term and weak Q1 growth. Lockdowns in China will weigh on Japan's rebound from a dip in Q1 via weak export demand an ... Read More
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