Category: Financial Services
Financial Services market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - East Timor
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - East Timor Given that the Bayu-Undan oil field is close to depletion, headline GDP will likely contract by 5% y/y in 2024, though non-oil GDP should still grow by 3.3%. Assuming that the field runs out by year's end, GDP growth will likely reach 3.9% y/y in 2 ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Tonga
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Tonga We revised our FY2024 – starting 1 July 2024 – GDP forecast for Tonga down by 0.44ppts to 1.81% growth as current activity estimates do not point towards a strong post-disaster and post-Covid rebound. Weak agricultural production is the main drag on growth, ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Honduras
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Honduras We have lowered our 2025 GDP growth for Honduras by 0.7ppts to 3.1% y/y, as we expect negative impacts on confidence, investment, and exports after the Supreme Court ruled ZEDE special economic zones unconstitutional. The zones had increased FDI attra ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Niger
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Niger The 2,000-km Niger-Benin Oil Export Pipeline is anticipated to transform Niger into a significant regional oil producer. Boasting a capacity of 110,000 barrels per day (bpd), the pipeline continues to make headlines – for all the wrong reasons. The pipel ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sierra Leone
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sierra Leone Weak economic institutions, persistent cost-of-living crises, and high susceptibility to external shocks hinder sustained economic growth in Sierra Leone. Nevertheless, easing inflation should bolster government spending and private sector activit ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Bolivia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Bolivia We forecast GDP growth for Bolivia of 2.2% next year, backed by fiscal expenditure and public investment projects. But we've cut our 2024 GDP forecast by 0.6ppts to 1.0% due to the protracted riots and higher inflation weighing on feeble domestic d ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Guatemala
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Guatemala We have upgraded our 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.5ppts to 4.1% y/y largely due to carry-over from stronger growth this year, which we now expect to rise by 1.2ppts to 4.3% y/y. Exports and investment have bounced back strongly after the El Niñ ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Venezuela
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Venezuela Our GDP growth forecasts remain unchanged at 4.0% y/y for 2024 and 3.5% y/y for 2025. The steady recovery in oil production has continued, about in line with our forecast. The country will likely reach 1mn bpd output next year, as foreign oil licence ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Virgin Islands (UK)
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Virgin Islands (UK) We forecast the British Virgin Islands' economy will grow by 1.2% in 2024 and 1.6% in 2025. We've revised up our 2025 GDP forecast to reflect stronger-than-anticipated growth in the tourism sector, partly driven by the robust US econom ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nicaragua
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nicaragua We’ve raised our GDP growth forecast for Nicaragua by 0.8 ppts to 3.2% for this year, but we’ve cut our 2025 projection by 0.6 ppts to 1.6%. We expect that private consumption and investment will drive the economic slowdown next year amid slowing dow ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Pakistan
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Pakistan We lifted our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Pakistan slightly this year, reflecting a stronger Q1 historical estimate. Agricultural-sector prospects are promising, and there is room for recovery in the industry and services subsectors. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Dominican Republic
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Dominican Republic We’ve raised our GDP growth forecasts for the Dominican Republic to 4.9% from 4.6% for this year and to 5.0% from 4.9% for 2025. We believe that most of the factors driving the recovery this year will continue to contribute to growth next ye ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Jamaica
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Jamaica We've revised down our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Jamaica slightly to 2.0% from 2.1% but we maintain our forecast of 2.1% growth for 2025. We think the slowdown in domestic consumption and external demand, and the only modest recovery in investme ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - El Salvador
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - El Salvador We’ve cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for El Salvador by 0.1 ppt to 1.9%. President Bukele's plan to reduce expenditures through layoffs and decreased transfers will weigh on household expenditures and government consumption next year. Althoug ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa
Analysis by Region - Africa Ethiopia has made rapid progress on policy reforms over the past three months. Adopting a market-determined FX regime and loosening restrictions on the current account unlocked a four-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) on July 29. Authorities accessed a second-tranche di ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Polls have shifted in favor of Republicans in recent days. Former President Donald Trump is leading in just enough battleground states to win the Electoral College. Key Senate races where Democrats are defending their seats have tightened, and House Democrats are no lon ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Serbia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Serbia We raised our GDP forecast for 2024 by 0.6ppts to 4.1% in 2024 and left 2025 unchanged at 4%. Better-than-expected GDP data outturns led us to revise our forecast for this year. In 2025, a more favourable carryover effect will offset the slightly softer qu ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iceland
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iceland We forecast Iceland's economy will expand by 2.8% in 2025, accelerating from 0.9% this year. Prospects have improved due to a better demographic outlook. We expect more stubborn inflation, averaging 3.9% next year and 6.0% in 2024, due to its stickine ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Long-term interest rates trended higher over the past several weeks but the increase doesn't pose a significant downside risk to our forecast. Some of the increase is attributed to the bond market betting on former President Donald Trump winning the election, sugges ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves confirmed that she would make material changes to the fiscal rules in order to boost public investment. A move to targeting a fall in public sector net financial liabilities over the course of the parliament looks likely. But we e ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Central African Republic
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Central African Republic The Central African Republic (CAR) remains entrenched in a complex web of conflict, regulatory uncertainty, and fuel shortages. Yet, despite all the difficulties, the economy is holding on thanks to a surge in gold prices, a rebound in ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Both we and the IMF expect a pick-up in growth in Latin America and the Caribbean next year. We see a rise to 2.5% y/y from 1.9% in 2024, as the region benefits from a global soft landing and looser monetary policy. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cape Verde
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cape Verde Annual economic growth averaged 9.7% y/y in the first half of 2024, with strong performances in the transport (23.3% y/y) and accommodation and food service (37.9% y/y) sectors. However, due to the high base, growth is expected to slow in the year&# ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo Republic
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo Republic Congo's average oil production declined to 259,000 bpd in the first nine months of the year from 275,300 bpd in the same period in 2023. We now project a sharper 4.0% reduction in Congo's average oil output for 2024 (-3.1% estimated prev ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Greece
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Greece In its regular data revision process, ELSTAT revised up both nominal and real GDP for Greece. As a result, nominal GDP data for 2023 is now 2.3% higher than the previous estimate. We'll incorporate the new data into our forecast as soon as the quarterl ... Read More
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