Category: Financial Services
Financial Services market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom Though monthly UK GDP data suggest the upturn may be faltering, recent outturns have been very noisy at a sectoral level, and we think the economy continues to carry solid momentum. So we have maintained our forecast that GDP will grow by 1.1% this year and ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The Federal Reserve will kick off its rate-cutting cycle at next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, with the only outstanding question being whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps. We think the data only justifies a 25bp cut. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets A positive lesson from the recent global volatility is that EM bonds and FX appear partially insulated when the risk-off is associated with declining US inflation expectations and a weakening greenback. Furthermore, we see an upside risk for EM bond return ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Economic policy uncertainty is rising earlier than normal for a presidential election year, and this has implications for the Q4 growth profile. Because of heightened uncertainty, we will adjust our forecast for Q4 business investment in nonresidential structures and eq ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Costa Rica
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Costa Rica We've nudged up our forecast for Costa Rica's GDP growth this year by 0.2ppts to 3.7% as investment figures surprised to the upside in Q2 2024. However, consumption has slowed down amid lower growth in real incomes and higher unemployment. M ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom Business survey data suggests that UK activity has continued to grow at a solid pace in Q3. The composite PMI is running at a similar level to H1 2024, though the patchy relationship with official output data suggests we shouldn't take these results too ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The July Federal Open Market Committee minutes and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole provided another clear signal that the Fed will cut rates in September. We think it would take a large, negative surprise in the labor market data between ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Prolonged monetary policy hawkishness presents a significant risk to demand growth across emerging markets (EMs). In the short run, central banks can justify tight policies as progress on disinflation has slowed and because of heightened financial market v ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Since the release of the July employment report, financial markets have been focused on the labor market and the implications for Federal Reserve policy, but the other side of the central bank's dual mandate will come back into view during the week ahead. Some of th ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Our aggregate 2024 GDP growth forecast for emerging markets (EMs) is unchanged at 4%, but we have nudged down our projection for 2025 by 0.1ppt to 3.9% as external headwinds are mounting. Real activity indicators suggest a sof ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom This week has seen substantial volatility in global financial markets, but we think the implications for the UK economy are limited. The UK sell-off has been relatively modest. We also think there's a good chance that equity prices will recover because f ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ukraine
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ukraine The severe energy shortages and the intensifying war, accompanied by a new wave of mobilisation, have dampened Ukraine's economic recovery to only 1.1% y/y of GDP growth in June, from 3.7% y/y in May. But due to stronger growth in Q1, GDP reached a de ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Hong Kong SAR
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Hong Kong SAR A strong export-led start to the year led us to revise up our 2024 forecast for Hong Kong's growth to 3.6%. In 2025, while we've pencilled in sequential moderation in growth, favourable base effects will push y/y growth to 4.1%. This is cons ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom The first business surveys of Q3 provided more evidence that the UK economic recovery has now taken root. While it's still early days, our forecast that q/q GDP growth is likely to remain solid in Q3, albeit slightly slower than in Q2, remains on track. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Governments' reputations for meeting fiscal projections have recovered significantly since the bashing they took during the Covid period, according to our scorecard based on the misses from fiscal ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The lull in the economy during the first three months of the year proved to be temporary. The reacceleration in GDP growth in Q2 should help temper concerns about the durability of the expansion and quiet chatter that the Federal Reserve needs to cut inte ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom UK GDP growth beat expectations again in May, meaning output remains on track for another quarter of solid growth in Q2. This adds to the evidence that the economy has now firmly turned a corner and supports our above-consensus forecast for GDP growth in 202 ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets We expect the recent fiscal concerns that drove a sell-off in Brazilian assets will be temporary and interest rates to have peaked. We find that, although fiscal sentiment has worsened during the last few months ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom The Bank of England's Financial Stability Report echoed our warnings that the impact of tighter monetary policy is still to fully pass through to households. The increase in debt servicing costs should be manageable for most, but there's a long tail ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Even though economic growth in Q2 is tracking below our expectations, we still think the core of the economy is healthy and we anticipate growth will remain close to 2% over the rest of this year. The labor market is resilient, and with inflation pressures easing again, ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Headline inflation in most of the ASEAN-6 (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam) is tracking higher this year. However, we still expect full-year figures for inflation in 2024 will be softer than in 2023, except in Vietnam ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United States
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United States US industrial production growth has been revised up to grow 2.1% in 2024, and gradually cool down in 2025 with 1.5% growth. We expect to see positive sequential quarter-on-quarter growth every quarter this year except for Q4. We continue to belie ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United Kingdom
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United Kingdom We have revised down our forecast for 2024 industrial production growth to 0.3%. We expect the Monetary Policy Committee will begin to cut interest rates in August of this year as there is evidence of loosening in labour market conditions and we ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom UK private sector regular pay growth continued to soften in April, despite upward pressure from the month's national living wage increase. With labour market conditions continuing to cool, we expect pay growth to weaken further in the coming months, allo ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The Federal Open Market Committee's updated economic projections point to just one rate cut this year, but those forecasts are already outdated as they don't capture the good news on inflation reported this week. We continue to expect two rate cuts this year, wi ... Read More
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