Category: Banking & Financial Services
Banking & Financial Services market research reports by Oxford Economics
-
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - South Korea
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - South Korea We kept our 2025 GDP growth forecast for South Korea at 1.9%. Under President Trump, higher investment in the US and a strong US dollar will provide a boost to exports next year. However, economic policy uncertainty will undermine South Korea's inv ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Virgin Islands (US)
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Virgin Islands (US) We upgraded our 2025 GDP forecast for the US Virgin Islands by 1.3ppts to 2.7% y/y. This is to reflect the significant investment and funding of infrastructure that the territory is set to receive in the upcoming year. ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy We forecast GDP growth for Italy at 0.9% for 2025, a boost from the 0.4% expansion we expect this year. We've recently downgraded our 2024 forecast based on relatively subdued Q3 growth. We project inflation will pick up to average 1.9% next year, as th ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom As expected, UK CPI inflation rose sharply in October, and in the short-term the clear direction of travel for inflation will be upward. Despite a raft of public appearances by the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee this week, there was little i ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Poland by 0.3ppts to 3.3% and trimmed our 2024 estimate by 0.5ppts to 2.7%. Our downward revision for this year is based on soft activity over Q3 with as the economy shrank on the back of weak industry and ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - China
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - China We maintain our 2025 GDP growth forecast for China at 4.4%, based on the latest economic developments and policy expectations. But we've adjusted our 2026-2029 growth forecasts to reflect the impact from the US presidential election. We currently assume ... Read More
-
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets So far, the Trump victory has created ripples rather than waves in emerging market assets. Those ripples are getting bigger, however, and we think Trump-related downside risks are not priced in sufficiently. ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Vietnam
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Vietnam We expect Vietnam's GDP will grow by 6.7% this year and 6.5% next. Strong industrial production in July and August offset the weakness in September this year despite the impact from Typhoon Yagi. Manufacturing will continue to be the primary engine ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Malaysia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Malaysia We maintain our 2024 GDP forecast for Malaysia at 5.6% and expect growth will slow down to 4.3% in 2025. The strong momentum exhibited through much of this year is unlikely to persist while the low base from a year ago drops out of the comparison. Growin ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kyrgyzstan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kyrgyzstan We expect Kyrgyzstan's economy will expand by a solid 3.7% in 2025, building on several years of strong growth. The Russia-Ukraine war has bolstered GDP growth in recent years. But although the conflict will continue to provide some support, the ec ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Argentina
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Argentina We cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppts to 3.8%, reflecting base effects from a 2024 growth revision to -3.7% from -3.9%. Our 2025 forecast aligns with the consensus. Despite our updated US baseline forecast with looser fiscal policy and targeted ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Papua New Guinea
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Papua New Guinea We now expect Papua New Guinea's GDP to expand by 6.9% in 2025, accelerating from a healthy 4.8% this year. Economic activity in the export-dominated economy will be driven mainly by its extraction sector, with high gold prices and increased ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Africa - Morocco
Analysis by Region - Africa - Morocco The Moroccan economy is holding up well. Despite a poor cereal harvest, which has constrained primary sector output, the economy is on track to post real GDP growth of 2.7% this year, thanks to solid performances in the secondary sector (particularly mining) and ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Kingdom
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Kingdom We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for the UK by 0.1ppt to 1.4% but have upgraded our 2026 forecast by 0.1ppt to 1.7%. The small downgrade to 2025 reflects the carryover effect of softer-than-expected data for late-2024, while the upgrade t ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany GDP expanded by 0.2% q/q in Q3, according to a flash estimate aided by private and government consumption, but the overall level of output in earlier quarters was lower due to data revisions. We maintain our call of a 0.1% contraction this year and don ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Moldova
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Moldova Moldova's GDP growth has gathered pace in H2 2024 and will likely pick up further next year, supported by additional EU funding and growing demand in the EU, Moldova's main trading partner. We expect growth will rise to about 3.9% in both 2025 ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Laos
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Laos We've reduced our GDP growth forecasts for Laos to 3.8% for 2025. The downgrade stems from inflation remaining stickier than expected, fuelling emigration to neighbouring countries, which has exacerbated existing challenges for human capital. We anticipa ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Puerto Rico
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Puerto Rico We lowered our 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppts to 1.2%. Federal funds from disaster-relief programs and pandemic stimulus that buoyed infrastructure projects and private consumption will continue to fade. Still, resilient demand from mainland ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Finland
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Finland We've kept our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Finland at 1.5%. We think cyclical tailwinds of real income gains, lower interest rates, and stronger external demand will support growth next year. Finland's exports to the US amount to 3% of GDP. But o ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Dominica
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Dominica We have doubled our 2024 GDP forecast for Dominica to 4.2% and expect robust growth of 3.1% next year. Our forecast reflects strong near-term prospects due a major recovery in tourism, high public investment, and strong Citizenship-by-Investment revenues ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bosnia and Herzegovina
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bosnia and Herzegovina We expect GDP growth for Bosnia and Herzegovina will pick up to 2.7% in 2025, following a 2.2% expansion this year. We've revised down our 2024 forecast by 0.2ppts as private consumption is taking more time to rebound than we expected, ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - St. Kitts and Nevis
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - St. Kitts and Nevis We forecast GDP growth for St Kitts and Nevis of 3.6% this year and expect a solid 3.2% expansion in 2025. We think growth will stay robust over the medium term due to recovering tourism receipts, high investment, and ongoing Citizenship-by-In ... Read More
-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Fiji
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Fiji We expect GDP growth for Fiji will ease to 2.7% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025 following a rapid two-year recovery. This reflects lower-than-expected merchandise exports, as demand from Australia and New Zealand moderated. Meanwhile, tourism earnings remain res ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain We forecast GDP growth for Spain at 2.4% next year. Although this marks a slowdown compared to the 3.1% expansion that we expect for this year, Spain will hold its position as one of the fastest growing economies in the eurozone. Strong growth in services w ... Read More
-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - St. Lucia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - St. Lucia We have upgraded our 2024 growth forecast for Saint Lucia by 1.5ppts to 4.9% y/y, given record-breaking tourism figures throughout the year. We forecast the economy to continue to grow in 2025 at a rate of 4.8% y/y based on expectations of a record crui ... Read More
Research Assistance
