Category: Financial Services
Financial Services market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
The Monetary Policy Committee's decision to keep Bank Rate at 4.5% was no surprise. We expect the committee to continue cutting at alternate meetings until at least August, when it will start to digest evidence of the impact of the increase in employers' national insurance contributions. So ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - South Korea
We've nudged down our 2025 GDP growth forecast for South Korea by 0.3ppts to 1.3% y/y. High-frequency indicators haven't bounced back as much as we had expected after the earlier Lunar New Year season. By component, we mainly revised real exports and investment downward. We expect Q1 growth ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Tunisia
Increasingly, the Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT) is coming under threat of losing its independence. President Kaïs Saïed met with BCT Governor Fathi Zouhaïr Nouri in February, during which Mr Saïed announced more changes to the legislation governing the bank. These changes will co ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Slovenia
We've lowered our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Slovenia by 0.4ppts to 2% due to expected new EU-US tariffs from Q2. We still expect domestic demand will be the main growth driver. An escalation in trade protectionism, a weaker labour market, and households saving rather than spending income gain ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland
We've raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Poland by 0.3ppts to 3.5% as a solid Q4 2024 result generated a stronger carryover effect into this year. High frequency data have so far been positive this year, indicating that activity has continued to expand at a good pace in Q1. Still, we have t ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
We've cut our GDP growth forecasts for Iran by 0.5ppts to 2.5% in fiscal year (FY) 2025 and by 0.7ppts to 1.6% in FY2026. The downgrade reflects the worsening outlook due to the return of US President Donald Trump's "maximum pressure" campaign, alongside stronger domestic challenge ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ecuador
We have increased our GDP growth forecast from 1.8% to 2.2% for 2025 and from 2.8% to 3.1% for 2026. This revision is mainly due to base effects. Data indicate the 2024 contraction (-1.9% y/y) was more severe than expected, largely because of the energy crisis. Net trade will bolster growth during H ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Denmark
We kept our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Denmark at 3.3%, with growth slowing to 1.9% in 2026. Supportive fiscal policy, steadily improving non-pharma manufacturing, and positive real income growth are the key growth drivers this year. Rate cuts are easing financial conditions but are unlikely to pr ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Kingdom
We expect UK GDP will grow by 1% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, unchanged from last month. Recent data have supported our view that the H2 2024 slowdown was exaggerated by residual seasonality in the GDP data. Though we expect the pace of quarterly growth to be stronger this year than in H2 2024, growth ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific
We have lowered our 2025 GDP growth forecast for New Zealand by 0.8ppts to 1.2% as recent data revisions indicate GDP came into 2025 with less momentum than we had previously anticipated. Even so, we still expect the quarterly pace of growth to pick up through this year as the headwinds weighing on ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Finland
Historical revisions to growth in 2023 and 2024 have mechanically lowered our forecast for this year to 0.9%, although we've kept the level of GDP unchanged. We still expect a domestic demand-led pick-up in activity, with the key downside risk being an escalation in US-EU trade tensions. We also ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Australia
We've upgraded our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Australia by 0.2ppts to 2.1%. Growth in 2024 was in line with our forecast at 1%, but the economy carried a little more momentum into the end of 2024 than we had expected. Growth in Q4 was generated from an even contribution across the public and p ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Gambia
Preliminary data suggests that the economy ended 2024 on a strong footing and that this momentum has carried over into 2025. Tourism figures are inching towards pre-pandemic levels, the construction sector is doing well, and remittances remain robust. The central bank’s Composite Index of Economic A ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden
We've increased our GDP growth forecasts for Sweden by 0.1ppt to 2.3% in 2025 and by 0.3ppts over the medium term. This is because of expected higher defence spending in Sweden, which will increase to 3% of GDP by 2030 from 2.4% currently, and in Europe, which will benefit Sweden's large def ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
January's small fall in UK GDP is no cause for concern given it came on the back of December's outsized increase. We continue to expect quarter-on-quarter growth of around 0.3% in Q1, though a history of volatility in the early part of the year – likely reflecting residual seasonality in the ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Across Asia, while the direct effect of tariffs varies by economy, the overall effect is more systemic. The short-term effect on China is being dampened as trade with the US is diverted via other countries, and the economy is being supported by a weaker currency and policy stimulus ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Heading into the weekend, it was unclear if there were enough votes in the Senate to pass legislation to keep the government open after March 14. A government shutdown would come at a vulnerable time for the economy and would subtract 0.1ppt to 0.2ppts from GDP growth for each week that it persists. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Canada
The US-Canada trade war will push Canada's economy into a recession that will spill over into early 2026. We have lowered our GDP growth forecasts for Canada by 0.3ppts to 1.1% in 2025 and now expect no growth in 2026, compared to 1.6% growth last month. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - France
We've lowered our forecast for GDP growth in France in 2025 by 0.1ppt to 0.5% as global trade uncertainty is weighing on business investment even more than we initially anticipated. In 2026, we continue to expect a modest rebound in activity, with GDP growth reaching 1%. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
We have raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Turkey by 1ppt to 2.9%, following a 3.2% expansion last year. The higher projection for this year reflects better-than-expected growth at the end of 2024, which boosted the carryover, and limited evidence of activity slowing at the start of this year. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States
We cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for the US by 0.4ppts to 2% to reflect the weaker start to the year, adjustments to our tariff assumptions, and the relentless policy uncertainty. We raised our forecast for the unemployment rate due to the large reduction in federal employment. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain
Our GDP growth forecast for Spain is unchanged at 2.6% this month. We've maintained our strong outlook even though we assume that the US will impose tariffs on the EU over the coming months, as Spain stands to be one of the least affected countries. Spain will remain one of the fastest-growing e ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal
We kept our GDP growth forecasts for Portugal broadly unchanged at 2.5% for 2025 and 2% for 2026. Portugal's government unexpectedly collapsed, with a snap election likely to occur in May. We don't think the renewed political crisis will derail an otherwise solid economic outlook supported b ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Austria
The economy contracted by 0.4% in Q4 2024 following data revisions, the eighth consecutive quarterly decline, shrinking by 1.5% over the course of last year. The data paint a picture of an economy in recession, dragged down by a struggling export sector. In the last quarter, positive contributions c ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone
We continue to expect the Eurozone's GDP will grow by 0.9% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026. However, we have adjusted our assumption on EU military spending, which we think will gradually increase to 3% of GDP by end of the decade. This prompted us to raise our GDP projections slightly from next year. ... Read More
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