Category: Financial Services
Financial Services market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Malawi
We forecast Malawi's real GDP growth to recover to 2.6% this year from 1.7% in 2024. The improved forecast is based on an improved outlook for rainfall compared with last year's severe drought and the expected reopening of a uranium mine in September. However, the economy continues to be pla ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Saudi Arabia
Preliminary Q4 estimates show Saudi GDP aligning with our expectations of 4.4% y/y growth, an increase from 3% in the previous quarter. This brings overall 2024 growth to 1.4%, in line with our projections. The non-oil sector continues to strengthen due to diversification efforts, as reflected in a ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Namibia
Namibia's economic growth slowed at the back end of last year because of cuts in diamond production and drought-induced losses in agricultural output. The external outlook has weakened somewhat since our previous forecast due to subdued expectations of global monetary policy easing and uncertain ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - North Korea
We think growth this year will likely fall back to a more moderate pace, after GDP growth in 2024 had likely continued the quick 3% pace from 2023. Long-term growth will stay weak due to sanctions and soft consumer demand from the country's main trading partner, China. The surge in ammunition an ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Lesotho
Lesotho's economy recovered in Q3 2024, expanding by 3.6% y/y compared with 0.7% y/y in the previous quarter. The services and industrial sectors posted notable growth, especially in retail, construction, and water & electricity subsectors. We expect economic growth to accelerate to 2.8% in ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Israel
We now expect the Israel-Hamas war will likely end in Q1 as the ceasefire came into effect at the start of this year. So, we've upgraded our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Israel to 3.6%. We think the recovery in investment as the risk premium falls, and the return to full-time employment for rese ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Latvia
We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Latvia by 0.4ppts to 2.3%. While we estimate a modest pick-up in activity in the final quarter of 2024 ended the year-long recession, the momentum at the turn of the year was soft. We expect recovery will proceed this year, setting the stage for the abo ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates
Growth in the non-oil economy had strong momentum heading into 2025, with Abu Dhabi’s Q3 2024 data pointing to a robust non-oil expansion. December's PMI climbed to 55.4 from 54.2 in November, the sharpest rise in new orders in nine months. We see this momentum carrying forward with 4.8% non-oil ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - South Korea
We've downgraded our 2025 GDP growth forecast for South Korea by 0.3ppts to 1.6% y/y. Growth momentum in Q4 2024 stayed soft at 0.1% q/q sa, and consumption is set to recover more gradually than we had anticipated. Loan growth slowed down to a nine-month low in December, too. That said, last mon ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Algeria
Algeria's oil output remains below historical levels due to the country’s agreement to cut oil output within the Opec+ group. The group extended cuts through Q1 due to lower-than-expected global oil demand, but it could be even longer if the group again misses its demand forecast for the year. I ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia
We raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Croatia 0.8ppts to 2.6%. Sizeable historical revisions suggest that the economy was aggressively destocking last year. A gradual restocking process as industrial fortunes turn should support a quicker rebound than we expected. Over the next few years, GDP g ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Rwanda
Economic growth in Rwanda will likely lose momentum this year following a surprisingly better performance in 2024. We forecast real GDP to grow by 7.2% in 2025, following an estimated expansion of 8.7% last year. Below-average rainfall is predicted over H1 2025, which could diminish crop harvests wi ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Austria
We've revised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Austria to 0.5% from 0.9% following still inauspicious sentiment data and lacklustre economic activity from end-2024. This indicates no impending turnaround. Industrial production remains dismal and we don't expect an imminent pickup in activity ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bulgaria
Our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Bulgaria remains solid at 2.9% – just shy of the 2015-2019 pre-pandemic average of 3.1%. This follows an estimated 2.3% expansion in 2024. The approval of a new coalition government on January 16 put an end to the political stalemate since the snap elections last Oct ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - France
We continue to forecast France's GDP will grow by 0.8% in 2025, a slowdown from the estimated 1.1% expansion in 2024. GDP growth is expected to have been broadly flat during Q4 2024 and will take time to gain pace in 2025 given that sentiment remains subdued, making up for a weak start of the ye ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Global EM
November activity data indicated economic activity in Brazil slowed significantly at the end of 2024, reinforcing our below-consensus GDP growth forecast of 1.8% for 2025. Monthly contractions in hard data indicators such as real retail sales, services revenue volumes, and industrial production sugg ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ireland
We forecast Ireland's GDP will grow by 4.0% this year and 3.5% in 2026, after contracting by 0.2% in 2024. Irish GDP rebounded by 3.5% q/q in Q3. We think this is the start of a recovery after five declines in the previous six quarters. But this isn't guaranteed given persistent data distort ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - South Africa
Economic conditions are mixed and modest positive momentum remains the order of the day. We have left South Africa's 2025 real GDP growth forecast unchanged at 1.5%, more than double the 2024 estimate of 0.7%. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
The data released this week confirmed the economy is still growing at a solid pace and inflation is gradually slowing, in line with our forecast. The big wild card remains the trade and immigration policies of the incoming administration. We will revise our February baseline to be in line with the i ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Egypt
After months of postponement, the fourth review of Egypt’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme is just about in the rear-view mirror. A lack of reforms, especially regarding the thorny issue of subsidies, caused the delays. The press release from the IMF showed that the emphasis is shifting a bit ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States
The economy is doing well, but it will remain a bifurcated one. We forecast real GDP in the US will increase by 2.6% this year and 2.7% in 2026, which we think is around the economy’s short-run potential growth rate. We've raised our projection for real consumer spending growth for this year by ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone
We lowered our eurozone GDP growth forecast for 2025 by 0.1ppt to 1.1%. We expect GDP growth will gradually gain pace over the course of this year and expand by 1.5% in 2026. Risks for the eurozone are on the downside due to domestic and international factors. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal
We've kept our GDP growth forecasts for Portugal broadly unchanged at 1.9% for 2025 and 2.1% for 2026. Surging real disposable incomes and the EU's Recovery and Resilience Facility will support growth. The economy will also benefit from its continued strong tourism activity. But as tourism g ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
We've kept our forecast for GDP growth in Turkey at a below-consensus 1.9%, although we see some upside risk given signs of slightly stronger activity at the turn of the year. The gradual slowdown in consumer spending is continuing according to credit card statistics, and we think the adjustment ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
There wasn’t much not to like in the December employment report and it increases the odds that we may have to remove the March 25bp rate cut by the Federal Reserve from the baseline. This wouldn’t significantly alter the contours of the forecast for GDP, inflation, or the labor market. ... Read More
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