Category: Financial Services
Financial Services market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain
We have nudged up our forecast for GDP growth in Spain by 0.1ppt to 2.5% to reflect indications that activity remained strong in Q4 despite the floods affecting the Valencia region. Although this marks a slowdown from the estimated 3.1% expansion last year, Spain will remain one of the fastest-growi ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana
Ghana’s economy delivered a strong performance over the first three quarters of last year, expanding by 6.3% on a cumulative basis. Rising gold and oil production bolstered industrial activity over this period, while the ICT and financial sectors ensured robust growth in the services sector. The agr ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mexico
Our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Mexico remains at 1.7%, well above the consensus of 1.0%. This unchanged from last month and slightly above our 1.5% growth estimate for 2024. Risks to our forecast for this year are tilted to the downside, but we believe markets are overly pessimistic about the poss ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Estonia
We forecast GDP growth for Estonia at 2.5% for 2025. We see signs of a recovery this year, but without a swift domestic turnaround it will be weak initially. Estonia's GDP growth was positive again in Q3 2024, but was close to stagnation at 0.03%. This lack of momentum bodes poorly for growth pr ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Uruguay
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Uruguay We trimmed our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Uruguay by 0.1ppts to 2.5%, following an estimated 3.1% expansion this year. The national accounts update for Q3 GDP matched our forecast of 0.7% q/q. But dynamics in demand-side components, along with revisi ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Slovak Republic
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Slovak Republic We estimate the Slovak economy expanded by a solid 2.0% this year, above the eurozone average. But the latest data are less optimistic, with the growth structure becoming increasingly vulnerable. Consumer spending has lost momentum, fixed investme ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Greece
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Greece We forecast GDP for Greece will grow by 2% next year. Domestic demand will likely do the heavy lifting, as we expect gross fixed investments will pick up and private consumption will likely maintain healthy growth. Net exports will support growth marginall ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Slovenia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Slovenia We've lowered our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Slovenia by 0.3ppts to 2.4% due to a weaker finish to this year. We still expect domestic demand will be the main growth engine amid large real income gains by households, easing monetary policy, and EU ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Lithuania
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Lithuania We forecast GDP growth for Lithuania will pick up to 3% next year, supported by a rebound in investment and expansions in the ICT sector. We think consumer spending growth will remain robust at 3% y/y despite heightened inflationary pressures. While GDP ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sri Lanka
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sri Lanka We lifted our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Sri Lanka to 3.8% y/y, 0.1ppts above consensus. President Dissanayake's administration has signalled it will continue the stabilisation plan, and the mini budget includes restrained fiscal spending. Sri ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.6ppts to 2.0%, to reflect another extension by OPEC+ of voluntary oil production cuts. The cartel has announced it will delay unwinding cuts until at least the end of Q1, due to concerns over weak demand. We ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Italy
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Italy Italy’s industrial output contracted in the second quarter of 2024. However, we expect industrial production to experience a modest uptick of 1.4% in 2025, being mostly driven by utilities. A handful of sectors are weighing down on IP this year, particul ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Japan
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Japan We maintain our cautious outlook for 2025. We expect growth to rebound to 1.2% next year following a 0.2% contraction in 2024, but the average quarterly growth will be modest at 0.2%. Domestic demand will remain soft as weak yen will limit the households ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Eurozone
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Eurozone We expect industrial production to rebound by 2.0% in 2025, reversing the 1.7% contraction in 2024. However, subdued sentiment and business surveys suggest a weak start to the year, with recovery likely concentrated in H2 2025 as the delayed effects o ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - China
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - China Industrial output grew by somewhat less than we had expected in Q3 2024, but we expect that catch-up growth in Q4 will make up for the losses, allowing for total growth to come in at 5.3% for the year, just under our previous forecast. We still expect a ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Eswatini
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Eswatini Eswatini’s mid-term budget review for the 2024/25 fiscal year projects a narrower fiscal deficit than pencilled in when the budget was originally presented in February. This is attributed to improved Southern African Customs Union (Sacu) receipts and ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - Germany Value-added industrial output shrunk again in Q3, this time falling by 1.4% q/q. There is little reason for cheer in most of the recent data: October, the first month of Q4, showed another drop in the industrial production index, bringing levels to jus ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific We downgraded our GDP forecasts for 2025 to 2% from 2.2%. Even so, that's a big improvement from the lacklustre growth of just 0.6% this year. The central bank accelerated the pace of its cutting cycle with 50 basis point cuts in October and November. We expect ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Libya
Analysis by Region - Africa - Libya Oil production recovered markedly over the past two months, following disruptions to production in August and September due to political turmoil. A struggle for influence over the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) led to a political crisis in mid-August and a sharp drop ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Uzbekistan
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Uzbekistan We forecast Uzbekistan's real GDP will grow by 5.9% next year, still supported by strong fixed investment, robust domestic consumption, and expansionary fiscal policy. The subdued economies of key trading partners like Russia and China and high glo ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mozambique
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mozambique The spate of violent protests and strikes in the wake of the disputed general elections in October has disrupted business operations across various sectors and is a blow to investor and business confidence. The turn of events has raised the risk of ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Senegal
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Senegal Senegal’s economy expanded by only 3.1% on a cumulative basis in H1 2024. Over this period, the primary and tertiary sectors grew by 4.4% and 3.6%, respectively. Concurrently, the secondary sector – which has been flagged as a key source of growth due ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Colombia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Colombia We've kept our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Colombia unchanged at 2.1%. We expect growth will increase slightly from this year, boosted by flexible financial conditions and lower inflation. Private consumption will lose some momentum due to its ro ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Tunisia
Analysis by Region - Africa - Tunisia The longer Tunisia is cut off from international capital markets, the more desperate authorities are becoming to finance the fiscal deficit. In a move that will raise concerns with the IMF, the Parliament passed a law that will force the central bank to finance ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo According to the IMF's most recent World Economic Outlook, the Fund expects the Congolese economy to expand by 4.7% this year. Our forecast of 5.8% is more optimistic – we believe the continued strong performance of the country's mining industry ... Read More
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