Category: Financial Services
Financial Services market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kuwait We recalibrated our measurement scopes for Kuwait's oil and non-oil activities to be more aligned with the official data release. As a result, we've revised our 2024 GDP growth forecast down to a 1.9% contraction from 0.5% previously. We attribute ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Lesotho
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Lesotho Lesotho’s economic growth disappointed in H1 2024, mainly due to weaknesses in the retail and public administration subsectors. Conversely, the construction subsector showed strong annual growth, boosted by phase two of the Lesotho Highlands Water Proj ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Malawi
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Malawi Despite robust tobacco production, we have cut our 2024 real GDP growth forecast further to 1.7% from 2.2%. A myriad of factors is constraining the rest of the agricultural sector, and high inflation and fuel shortages are curbing private consumption gr ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Serbia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Serbia We raised our GDP forecast for 2024 by 0.6ppts to 4.1% in 2024 and left 2025 unchanged at 4%. Better-than-expected GDP data outturns led us to revise our forecast for this year. In 2025, a more favourable carryover effect will offset the slightly softer qu ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iceland
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iceland We forecast Iceland's economy will expand by 2.8% in 2025, accelerating from 0.9% this year. Prospects have improved due to a better demographic outlook. We expect more stubborn inflation, averaging 3.9% next year and 6.0% in 2024, due to its stickine ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia We've kept our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Croatia at 3.5% but revised down our 2025 GDP forecast by 0.2ppts to 1.8%. Our downgrade reflects the planned large hike in energy prices early next year that will cause real income growth to slow down co ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves confirmed that she would make material changes to the fiscal rules in order to boost public investment. A move to targeting a fall in public sector net financial liabilities over the course of the parliament looks likely. But we e ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Long-term interest rates trended higher over the past several weeks but the increase doesn't pose a significant downside risk to our forecast. Some of the increase is attributed to the bond market betting on former President Donald Trump winning the election, sugges ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Central African Republic
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Central African Republic The Central African Republic (CAR) remains entrenched in a complex web of conflict, regulatory uncertainty, and fuel shortages. Yet, despite all the difficulties, the economy is holding on thanks to a surge in gold prices, a rebound in ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Both we and the IMF expect a pick-up in growth in Latin America and the Caribbean next year. We see a rise to 2.5% y/y from 1.9% in 2024, as the region benefits from a global soft landing and looser monetary policy. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cape Verde
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Cape Verde Annual economic growth averaged 9.7% y/y in the first half of 2024, with strong performances in the transport (23.3% y/y) and accommodation and food service (37.9% y/y) sectors. However, due to the high base, growth is expected to slow in the year&# ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo Republic
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Congo Republic Congo's average oil production declined to 259,000 bpd in the first nine months of the year from 275,300 bpd in the same period in 2023. We now project a sharper 4.0% reduction in Congo's average oil output for 2024 (-3.1% estimated prev ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Greece
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Greece In its regular data revision process, ELSTAT revised up both nominal and real GDP for Greece. As a result, nominal GDP data for 2023 is now 2.3% higher than the previous estimate. We'll incorporate the new data into our forecast as soon as the quarterl ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Algeria
Analysis by Region - Africa - Algeria During the past quarter, Algeria's President Abdelmadjid Tebboune won the presidential election by a landslide. He once again repeated some of his very ambitious economic plans in his address to the nation. Given Algeria’s dependency on the hydrocarbon secto ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Rwanda
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Rwanda The National Bank of Rwanda's latest monetary policy and financial stability report indicated that FDI surged by 63.5% y/y in H1 2024 to $289m. The financial sector remained the largest recipient of FDI as foreign banks acquired several domestic banks. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Austria
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Austria Economic activity in Austria remained weaker than we anticipated in recent months and heavy floods in September presented an additional drag. Consequently, we now expect flat quarterly growth for Q3. But risks are skewed to the downside as industrial prod ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brazil
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brazil We've raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Brazil by 0.4ppts to 3.2% to account for the more resilient momentum showing in labour market indicators. Aggregate real earnings, although cooling, will still rise over 6% this year, while households he ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Togo
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Togo Following real GDP growth of 6.4% last year, we forecast economic growth to average 4.7% p.a. over the 2024-2025 period. Factors that will support economic activity over this time frame include structural reforms, key investments in the industrial sector, ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Denmark
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Denmark We've raised our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Denmark by 0.8ppts to 2.4%. Growth for Q2 was revised up significantly in the final national accounts data, lifting the annual growth rate for 2024. Strong pharmaceutical and maritime exports meant net tra ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Namibia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Namibia Following a strong start to the year in Q1, economic growth slowed in Q2 2024 due to weaker mining and agricultural output. Softer demand for Namibia's commodity exports and the devastating local drought took their toll. The outlook for mining is m ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burkina Faso
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burkina Faso Burkina Faso’s fragile security situation has been compounded by persistent challenges, especially related to poor weather conditions and policy uncertainty in the mining sector. However, the surge in gold prices throughout 2024 has provided a sil ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom After an early-summer lull, UK GDP returned to growth in August. Though the pace of growth has clearly cooled from the well above-trend rates seen in H1 2024, the economy continues to enjoy decent momentum. We're unlikely to change our forecast that GDP ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Benin
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Benin Benin’s economy rebounded strongly from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, expanding by 6.6% p.a. over the 2021-2023 period. This impressive performance is set to persist, and we forecast average annual growth of 6.2% for 2024 and 2025. Robust investm ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The September data on consumer and producer prices were mixed, but it doesn't alter our near-term forecast for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25bps at each of its two remaining meetings this year. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Middle class opportunities are increasingly coming from markets with more balanced growth drivers, and less dependency on commodity exports. So an effective Asia strategy will be key for companies to capitalize on the largest scale and fastest growth of mi ... Read More
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