Category: Financial Services
Financial Services market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Canada
Flash PMIs for February showed a divergence between Germany, where activity improved, and France, which fell deeper into contraction territory. The Eurozone composite PMI was unchanged – near stagnation. We revised down our forecasts for industrial production, as Europe finds itself squeezed between ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Bangladesh
While it was a quiet week for economic data, there were plenty of fireworks about the Department of Government Efficiency, but nothing that justifies a change to our forecast. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Kingdom
We forecast the Dutch economy will grow by 1.4% this year, and 0.9% next. The impact of tight monetary policy is set to unwind, while strong wage growth alongside lower inflation will help drive the recovery in consumption. However, tariffs and trade uncertainty will limit growth. We expect inflatio ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Indonesia
We've nudged down our UK GDP growth forecasts by 0.1ppt to 1% in 2025 and by 0.2ppts to 1.5% in 2026. Our updates reflect the indirect impacts of recent US political developments, which are likely to damage business confidence, reduce global trade, and result in tighter financial conditions. Mor ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Philippines
We cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Poland by 0.1ppt to 3.2%. Our 2026 call saw a stronger 0.4ppt cut to 3.4%. The economy ended last year on a strong note as the flash estimate for Q4 indicated growth at 1.3% q/q. While we expect the solid performance to continue, weak foreign demand and high i ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Costa Rica
We expect much of the Ivorian economy’s momentum to persist throughout 2025 due to robust secondary and tertiary sector activity. Increased oil and gas output and strong gold production will support industry growth this year. Concurrently, sustained expansions in trade and the financial and ICT indu ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland
We've raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Costa Rica by 0.4ppts to 3.6%. We expect private consumption will slow down due to the return of inflation to the lower bound of the central bank's target range, higher unemployment, and lower consumer confidence. Rate cuts in 2024 should support ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Côte d'Ivoire
We have lowered our near-term forecast for Finland as we now expect reciprocal across-the-board 10% tariffs on EU-US trade from Q2 this year. This will dampen exports and investment, while higher inflation will negatively affect real income growth. Unemployment is also set to decline at a slower pac ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Finland
We've cut our GDP growth forecasts for Germany by 0.3ppts to 0.1% in 2025 and by 0.4ppts to 0.8% in 2026. US tariffs and the EU's response will lower foreign demand, raise uncertainty, and make inflation stickier, which will further delay the industrial recovery, undermine corporate capex, a ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
Monetary authorities surprised with a 50-bps interest rate increase during its first meeting of the year. Committee members stated that central banks around the world are following divergent stances based on their own inflation and economic growth outlooks while flagging that the US Fed has followed ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
We forecast India's real GDP will grow by 6.5% in 2025, following an estimated 6.4% expansion last year. In fiscal year terms, we expect 6.4% growth in FY2025/2026 ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden
Economic growth surpassed our expectations in 2024, but we still anticipate the Angolan economy to cool in 2025 due to a slower expansion in the oil sector. Elevated inflation, fiscal consolidation efforts, and continued dry weather conditions thwart the potential for higher real GDP growth. We fore ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Ethiopia has maintained its fiscal consolidation and policy reform path, performing well in terms of meeting its IMF Extended Credit Facility (ECF) targets in H2 2024. The ECF disbursals and World Bank facilities alleviated acute FX pressures in 2024, while strong coffee export receipts provided fur ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Hungary
We have cut our GDP growth forecast by 0.3ppts to 2.6%, due to a highly uncertain backdrop amid a potential trade war under Trump’s second term. Even though the direct impact of US tariffs should be relatively small, we consider that secondary effects such as lower global trade and less business con ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Peru
We've lowered our near-term GDP growth forecasts for Sweden by 0.2ppts to 2.2% in 2025 and by 0.3ppts to 2.2% in 2026. We now expect an across-the-board tariff of 10% to be applied on the EU by the US, which will dampen exports and investment. Meanwhile, higher inflation and uncertainty will neg ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Angola
The narrative surrounding policymaking and its near-term economic impact has shifted dramatically from the January to February baseline forecast. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Our GDP growth forecasts for Argentina are unchanged at a below-consensus 3.6% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026. The strong recovery in Q3 2024 and resilience in Q4 2024 suggest a slowdown in the current quarter (0.0% q/q). The RIGI scheme to attract investment adds an upside risk to growth, while the La ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belgium
After a poor performance in the first half of last year, Botswana’s diamond industry continued to disappoint in Q3 2024, declining by 14.8% q/q. Although De Beers' latest production report indicates that Botswana’s diamond output rose in the final quarter of 2024, the production guidance for 202 ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Argentina
We forecast the Belgian economy will expand by 1.1% this year and 1.6% next, as tight monetary policy unwinds and manufacturing recovers. However, tariffs and trade uncertainty will limit growth. We expect inflation will average 2.2% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, with tariffs hindering the disinflationa ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Malawi
We forecast Malawi's real GDP growth to recover to 2.6% this year from 1.7% in 2024. The improved forecast is based on an improved outlook for rainfall compared with last year's severe drought and the expected reopening of a uranium mine in September. However, the economy continues to be pla ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa
Uganda's short- to medium-term economic growth prospects continue to be supported by strong performances across different sectors: energy, agriculture, mining, manufacturing, and tourism. We consequently lifted our 2025 economic growth projection to 5.1% from 4.9%. Business sentiment remains pos ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Saudi Arabia
Preliminary Q4 estimates show Saudi GDP aligning with our expectations of 4.4% y/y growth, an increase from 3% in the previous quarter. This brings overall 2024 growth to 1.4%, in line with our projections. The non-oil sector continues to strengthen due to diversification efforts, as reflected in a ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Namibia
Namibia's economic growth slowed at the back end of last year because of cuts in diamond production and drought-induced losses in agricultural output. The external outlook has weakened somewhat since our previous forecast due to subdued expectations of global monetary policy easing and uncertain ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - North Korea
We think growth this year will likely fall back to a more moderate pace, after GDP growth in 2024 had likely continued the quick 3% pace from 2023. Long-term growth will stay weak due to sanctions and soft consumer demand from the country's main trading partner, China. The surge in ammunition an ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Lesotho
Lesotho's economy recovered in Q3 2024, expanding by 3.6% y/y compared with 0.7% y/y in the previous quarter. The services and industrial sectors posted notable growth, especially in retail, construction, and water & electricity subsectors. We expect economic growth to accelerate to 2.8% in ... Read More
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