Category: Financial Services
Financial Services market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Analysis by Region - Latin America - Costa Rica
Analysis by Region - Latin America - Costa Rica Costa Rica’s GDP is expected to grow 3.6% in 2022, 0.1ppts above our previous forecast, supported by a recovery in goods exports, rising tourism, and resilient private consumption. That said, since our last report, the global outlook has deteriorated, ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - South Africa
Analysis by Region - Africa - South Africa We reiterate our view of rising stagflation risks this round, with revisions to South Africa’s economic growth and inflation forecasts. Across the board sentiment is slowly souring, with the consensus forecast for South Africa real GDP growth in 2022 having ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom Though the MPC's decision to raise Bank Rate to 1% was predictable, the committee's confusing messaging meant that its future plans are much less clear. In particular, though their new forecasts show GDP falling in 2023, the MPC suggested further rat ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The FOMC this week raised the federal funds rate by 50bp, the first half-point increase in the funds rate in 22 years. The guidance from Fed Chair Powell was to expect more of the same at upcoming meetings and we look for 50bps rate hikes at both the June and July meeti ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
The Treasury curve bear-steepened this week. Front-end yields were little changed, but long-end yields surged, led by a rise of more than 20bp in bond yields as real yields led the move higher. US equities were little changed on the week as of late Friday morning despite an exceptional bout of volat ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Egypt
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Egypt The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on food prices is being felt and with global food prices projected to rise into Q2, Egyptians will not be able to escape further inflationary pressures. This will weigh on consumer demand, which has proven to be a key ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Europe - Russia
Analysis by Region - Europe - Russia We have maintained our GDP forecasts of a 10.9% contraction in 2022 and a 3.3% decline in 2023. While GDP is estimated to have grown by 3.7% y/y in Q1, this mainly reflects buoyant growth in January-February, before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Having alread ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone Economic data released this week raised further concerns over the eurozone economy. Q1 GDP expanded by just 0.2% in Q1, broadly in line with our expectations but in all a sluggish result. Meanwhile, inflation continued to rise, reaching a multi-decade high of 7.5% ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US It was a volatile week in the Treasury market – and in financial markets generally – but in the end, yields finished the week little changed except for at the front end of the curve. Two-year yields were 3bps higher on the week and the 10-year yield was 1bp lower, flatt ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic We have maintained our Czech Republic growth forecast for 2022 at 1.9%, as renewed supply disruptions and the cost-of-living crisis, both exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, continue to weigh on the economy. But growth should bounce ba ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Nigeria
Analysis by Region - Africa - Nigeria While the war between Russia and Ukraine has increased international uncertainty, the Nigerian economy remains undeterred. The non-oil economy's strong performance persisted in the first quarter of the year, as the PMI moderated only slightly to 55.0 in Q1 2 ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore We have maintained our 2022 and 2023 GDP growth forecasts for Singapore at 3.3% and 2.3%, respectively, as Q1 2022 GDP numbers landed within our expectations. Domestically, a significant easing of Covid-related restrictions will boost private consumptio ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Singapore We have maintained our 2022 and 2023 GDP growth forecasts for Singapore at 3.3% and 2.3%, respectively, as Q1 2022 GDP numbers landed within our expectations. Domestically, a significant easing of Covid-related restrictions will boost private consumptio ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - China
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - China The prolonged lockdown in Shanghai plus highway controls in a number of provinces are severely disrupting domestic and port logistics. While land transport and industrial production have improved somewhat after a sharp slowdown in early April, we think the ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Algeria
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India The Reserve Bank of India's hawkish shift in April and the surge in March CPI to 7% have pushed up our 2022-end policy rate forecast to 5%. We expect the economy to weather the slightly faster pace of monetary policy normalisation and maintain our 2022 ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Nigeria
Analysis by Region - Africa - Nigeria While the war between Russia and Ukraine has increased international uncertainty, the Nigerian economy remains undeterred. The non-oil economy's strong performance persisted in the first quarter of the year, as the PMI moderated only slightly to 55.0 in Q1 2 ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Romania
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Romania Romania's GDP growth is expected to slow to 3.0% this year from 5.8% in 2021 due to fading base effects and fallout from the war. Meanwhile, economic sentiment remained buoyant in March, due to government support for households and SME energy bills wh ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Qatar
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Qatar Qatar's GDP grew 1.5% in 2021, 0.7ppt below our forecast, after annual growth slowed in Q4 against our expectations of a pick-up. Although the latest industrial production reading displays notable weakness, we have kept our 2022 GDP growth forecast unch ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway Our 2022 mainland GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 3.6%, but a stronger-than-expected impact from the war in Ukraine on household consumption represents the main downside risk to our outlook. Otherwise, growth prospects remain resolute. An incredib ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Norway Our 2022 mainland GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 3.6%, but a stronger-than-expected impact from the war in Ukraine on household consumption represents the main downside risk to our outlook. Otherwise, growth prospects remain resolute. An incredib ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone Different forces are pulling the eurozone economy in opposite directions. The impact of the war in Ukraine continues to cause an energy-driven inflation surge and a massive hit to confidence, as well as an exacerbation of the pre-existing problems in supply chains ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Emerging market (EM) import prices on average have risen 13% since the start of the year, due in part to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. As a result, we expect the median EM trade balance to improve slightly, by 0.7% in GDP (Chart 1). While commodity pro ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Indonesia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Indonesia We have maintained our 2022-2023 GDP growth forecasts for Indonesia at 5.7%, despite downside risks stemming from the Russia-Ukraine war and weaker growth prospects for China. We project a continued recovery in domestic demand, with the Covid pandemic&# ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Colombia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Colombia The central bank's hesitancy to shift its policy stance to deal with mounting inflationary risks and the current external buffers from commodity prices have supported Colombian growth so far this year. Our 2022 growth forecast stands at 3.8%, from 3. ... Read More
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