Category: Financial Services
Financial Services market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom Falling mortgage approvals and house prices confirm that a UK housing market correction is well underway. But with swap rates well below the peaks reached after September's mini-Budget, and those ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets We expect the five biggest economies in Latin America – Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico – to enter a synchronized but mild recession next year. The region is facing a triple whammy o ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Israel
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Israel We have raised our GDP growth forecast for Israel to 6% from 5.5% in 2022 reflecting robust Q3 economic growth of 0.5% q/q that was led by strong capital investment and government consumption. Whil ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland Poland's economy grew 1% q/q (4.5% y/y) in Q3, rebounding from 2.3% q/q contraction in Q2. The outturn almost matched our 0.9% q/q forecast, which was above consensus, and confirmed that the ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Zambia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Zambia We have revised our GDP growth forecast for 2022 to 2.4% from 2.1%, reflecting the impact of a slower-than-expected pickup in inflation and greater kwacha resilience on household expenditure and private sector consumption. That being said, we retain a b ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Dominican Republic
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Dominican Republic Our GDP growth forecast for the Dominican Republic in 2022 is unchanged at 5.2%, close to our estimate for its potential growth rate. However, we nudged down our 2023 forecast by 0.6ppts to 3.8%, because of global headwinds, stemming from mo ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Cuba
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Cuba Cuba's weak performance amid ongoing sanctions, repeated coronavirus waves, protests, and an attempt toward monetary normalization, has been hit by further headwinds. These include energy shortages, unofficial inflation running on triple digits, and a hu ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The economy is off to a better than anticipated start this quarter and we will likely be revising higher our forecast for Q4 GDP and, if the momentum continues, may need to delay the start of the recession in our forecast until Q2 of 2023. New data on retail sales were ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Bahamas
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Bahamas The Bahamas continues to rebound from the coronavirus pandemic with strong growth of 7.7% expected for 2022. Our forecast reflects a recovery in tourism and foreign direct investment, as well as a 33% jump in exports this year. Unemployment continues t ... Read More
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Macro - +I1+A2:A67+A2:A68+A2:A67
Macro - +I1+A2:A67+A2:A68+A2:A67 This week's preliminary GDP estimate delivered a rare piece of good news for the UK economy, with a q/q fall of 0.2% being much smaller than expected. The upside surprise reflected chunky upward revisions to July and August, which more than offset the drag from S ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets The outlook for emerging markets (EMs) remains more positive than for advanced economies (AEs). However, growth challenges are building due to the downturn in external demand, global interest rate hikes (weighing on EM currencies and policy rates), weak re ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Montenegro
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Montenegro We have downgraded our GDP growth forecast for Montenegro by 0.3ppts to 3.6% in 2022 and by 0.3ppts to 4% in 2023. The downgrade reflects growing inflationary pressures and recent political instability. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has continued to ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kosovo
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Kosovo We have lowered our GDP growth forecasts for Kosovo by 0.3ppts to 3.1% in 2022 and by 0.1ppt to 3.5% in 2023. The Russia-Ukraine war has continued to fuel inflation, further eroding the purchasing power of many businesses and consumers. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ethiopia
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ethiopia At 3.8%, our estimate for 2021/22 GDP growth falls well below the consensus. The soft growth estimate reflects our concerns that, although growth in monetary aggregates hinted at a pick-up in domestic demand, household consumption softened in the face ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Indonesia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Indonesia We've significantly lowered our 2023 Indonesia growth forecast to 3.6% from 4.7%, reflecting another substantial revision to our US and world growth forecasts. We now project world GDP to grow just 1.2% in 2023, down from 1.7% last month. At the sam ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA - Qatar
Analysis by Region - MENA - Qatar The ongoing preparations for the World Cup propelled growth in Qatar's non-oil sector to 9.7% y/y in Q2, the fastest rate of growth since mid-2015. This, alongside expectations of activity benefitting from an influx of visitors in the near term, has prompted us ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Denmark
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Denmark We have raised our 2022 GDP growth forecast for Denmark by 0.5ppts to 2.7% after national accounts showed a stronger H1 performance. However, we have cut our 2023 forecast by 0.4ppts to 0.1%, and we now believe the Danish economy is set to contract for th ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden We have lowered our 2023 GDP forecast for Sweden by 0.9ppts to a 0.1% contraction, amid more front-loaded monetary policy tightening and signs of a broad-based weakening in activity. Inflation continues to rise and underlying pressures are intensifying, th ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Thailand
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Thailand We've left our 2022 Thailand GDP growth forecast unchanged at 3.6% as reopening tailwinds, including an easing in regional international travel restrictions, will support domestic demand and a solid recovery in service-sector activity. Indeed, tourism ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sudan
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sudan The military junta's unwillingness to relinquish power to civilian leaders continues to obstruct Sudan's economic progress. The political impasse will continue to hinder the country's growth – we expect the economy to narrowly escape a contra ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United States
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United States US industrial growth has slowed in the face of high inflation, slowing export growth, declining inventories, and shifting consumer preferences towards services. Q2 GDP fell by -0.6%%, dragged by declining residential investment, declining constru ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US It will come as no surprise when the Fed lifts rates by another 75bps rate hike next week, so the focus will be more on any signals from Fed Chair Powell's press briefing and the FOMC's updated projections as to what comes next. We look for another 75bps of rate ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets We expect a limited increase in policy rates across Asia, and most central banks are unlikely to match the Fed's likely aggressive tightening. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Indonesia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Indonesia We have further lowered our 2023 growth forecast to 5%, from 5.5% previously. The economy proved resilient to lockdowns in China and a palm oil export ban in Q2, with the 5.4% GDP expansion coming in stronger than our expectation. But that pace is unlik ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom Last week delivered some evidence that UK consumers are responding to burgeoning cost of living pressures by borrowing more. But with the prognosis for inflation deteriorating, taking on more debt, o ... Read More
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