Category: Financial Services
Financial Services market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Sweden We have lowered Sweden's growth outlook for this year to 2.8% from 3.1% amid weak Q1 data. The main headwind continues to be high inflation, eroding real disposable incomes and private consumption. Input shortages had been easing until Russia's inv ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany Russia's invasion of Ukraine will materially undermine this year's recovery. We have further revised down our forecasts this month due to expected higher inflation this year and our more downbeat view on the industrial outlook, given a swift hit f ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US Headline consumer prices rose at their fastest annual pace since December 1981 in April. We expect CPI inflation to peak in April, but more importantly look for only a gradual retreat, and expect prices to still be running 5% higher on an annual basis by year-end. That ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - US
Analysis by Region - North America - US There are signs that the 8.5 percent inflation rate in March marks the peak of the inflation cycle. A lot depends on oil and food prices, which are held hostage by the war in Ukraine, as well as spreading Covid lockdowns in China, which may prolong supply-chai ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - South Africa
Analysis by Region - Africa - South Africa Stagflation risks in South Africa have risen with real GDP forecast to grow at a slower rate of 1.6%, while average inflation is expected to increase to 5.6% in 2022. That said, low growth and high inflation have been key features of the economy even before ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America - Canada
Analysis by Region - North America - Canada While the Canadian economy proved resilient in Q1 2022 amid Omicron and tighter restrictions, a more hawkish Bank of Canada, spill over effects from the Russia-Ukraine war, and a correction in house prices are expected to slow growth later in the year and ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Covid restrictions will weigh on Chinese household consumption and industrial production at least through April and into May. This could have a significant impact on global supply chains. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom February's GDP data showed contrasting impacts of the transition to living with Covid. Most of the benefits, in terms of a rebound in social consumption, have now been enjoyed. But some of the costs, in the form of less support to health output from Covi ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone Incumbent president Emmanuel Macron will face Marine Le Pen in the second round of French elections at the end of this month. The results of the first round show the unprecedented fragmentation of public opinion amid a clear rise of the extremes on the far right a ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Austria
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Austria Geopolitical tensions, in tandem with worsening inflation following sanctions on Russia, have clouded Austria's outlook. Supply chain disruptions were just beginning to recover prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but headwinds are now intensifyi ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone The conflict in Ukraine is having an acute impact on the eurozone. Our projections see a combination of higher-for-longer inflation and lower growth, mainly via more subdued consumption and industrial activity. We project eurozone GDP will grow by 2.8% i ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Latin America - Chile
Analysis by Region - Latin America - Chile We have lowered our 2022 GDP forecast to 1%, from 2%, to reflect a larger impact of policy tightening on short-run growth and weaker supply-side fundamentals (resulting in the lowering of our potential output estimate to 2.3% pa, from 2.5%). ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Latin America - Mexico
Analysis by Region - Latin America - Mexico While data may point to a slightly stronger-than-expected expansion in Q1, soaring inflation, tighter financial conditions and slower global growth due to the war in Ukraine are weighing on Mexico's outlook. We have shaved our 2022 GDP growth forecast ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - North America
Analysis by Region - North America We expect GDP growth slowed sharply in Q1, though the underwhelming performance reflects a slower inventory build and weaker exports. While we believe the economy will prove resilient to rising headwinds from higher inflation and a more aggressive Fed tightening cy ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Latin America - Ecuador
Analysis by Region - Latin America - Ecuador Despite a 4.2% expansion in GDP in 2021 backed by robust consumption, Ecuador's economy continues to struggle to recover to pre-pandemic levels. Persistent rifts between Congress and the executive branch have put President Lasso’s reform agenda at ris ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Indonesia
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Indonesia We have maintained our Indonesia 2022-2023 GDP growth forecasts at 5.7% following downgrades in February and March. Domestic prices are rising in line with our expectations, with a partial feed through of higher global energy and food prices. As mobilit ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets Our 2022 outlook for emerging markets (EMs) has been cut further to reflect deep recessions in Russia and Ukraine and increased headwinds elsewhere. Our 2022 GDP growth forecast now stands at 3.7%, 0.9ppts below our baseline before Russia's invasion of ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom A strong performance from March's services and construction PMIs offered some indication that the economy carried a degree of momentum at the end of Q1, despite intensifying cost of living pressures. But firms have become much gloomier about the future. ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US The minutes from the Fed's March policy meeting underscored that policymakers intend to "move the stance of monetary policy towards a neutral posture expeditiously" in order to tackle hot inflation and assuage fears that it is behind the curve. We look for a 5 ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone When France' first round of presidential elections takes place this Sunday, it will be a reflection of the economic consequences that the war in Ukraine has had and the reversal in the polls the conflict has caused. While President E. Macron remains the favourite, ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific
Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific We expect domestic demand to be a key driver of economic growth over 2022-2023 as activities normalise and labour market conditions improve following the end of most coronavirus pandemic-related restrictions. That said, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has created n ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Macro - Weekly Briefings - US In their public remarks since last month's FOMC meeting, Fed officials have only become more hawkish. We now look for the Fed to accelerate the pace of rate hikes and to raise the federal funds rate by 50bps each in May and June. We expect a cumulative rate hike of 200b ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - China
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - China China’s GDP growth is forecast ease to 4.9% in 2022 but pick up to 5.4% in 2023. To achieve this gain, we expect meaningful and front-loaded policy support from the government, which has emphasized tax cuts and unemployment benefits and has sped up the a ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United States
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United States US industry is still expanding briskly but now facing a growing list of shifting headwinds. On the macro scale, the Omicron wave has now been largely contained, but higher inflation has remained, greater uncertainty triggered by Russia's inva ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United Kingdom
Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - United Kingdom Industrial production had been increasing slowly but steadily since last October thanks to easing supply chain pressures, but remains about 2% below pre-pandemic levels. ... Read More
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