Category: Financial Services
Financial Services market research reports by Oxford Economics
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - India We have lowered our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 7.3% from 7.7% last month and our 2023 forecast to 5.8% from 6.9%. These reductions reflect the substantial upward revisions to our oil and other commodity price forecasts following Russia's invasion of Ukrain ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone The Russian invasion of Ukraine has prompted significant revisions to our forecasts for the eurozone. We now expect higher-for-longer inflation, seen at around 5% this year, combined with lower growth of just 3%. Further revisions are likely, especially as latest ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
Analysis by Region - MENA We have cut our 2022 GDP growth projection by 0.4ppts to 2.1% following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. There is immense uncertainty about the scale of the conflict's impact, but external factors have already added to the challenges faced by the Turkish economy this year. Soa ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Portugal We have cut our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 5% from 5.3% due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and associated higher-for-longer energy price inflation. Still, we think Portugal will likely be among the eurozone countries least affected economically by the ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom The last week has delivered little let-up in the energy price-driven supply shock to the UK economy triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Inflation is set to rise above 8% later in the spring and we have downgraded our forecast for GDP growth this year ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Austria
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Austria We have cut our near-term growth forecast for Austria due to impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Supply chains were just beginning to recover prior to the attack but headwinds are now intensifying. We expect a large hit to trade, a direct hit from tra ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Latin America
Analysis by Region - Latin America We maintain our 2022 GDP growth forecast at 2%, but downside risks are growing. We expect the Russia-Ukraine conflict will lead to tightening global financial conditions that will likely curb foreign investment, put pressure on the peso, and risk higher-for-longer ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain The invasion of Ukraine by Russia will slow growth this year. The war has led to soaring energy prices and will push inflation even higher, eroding household real incomes. We now expect GDP to grow 5.1% this year (from a previous 5.6% forecast) and 3.9% in ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Mexico
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Mexico The escalation of the Ukraine-Russia conflict has added an extra layer of uncertainty to our outlook just weeks after the threat of the Omicron outbreak started to wane. Mexico's direct trade links with Russia and Ukraine are marginal, but the massive surg ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets After an uncertain start to 2022 due to a new wave of the pandemic, emerging markets (EMs) face new headwinds stemming from the sharp escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The impact on growth will be dramatic in Russia and Ukraine, significant in eme ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone We are lowering our forecast for the eurozone economies in light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The speed at which events are unfolding means that uncertainty remains extremely high, with risks skewed to the downside. Our new projections see a combinat ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States The US economy faces shifting headwinds. The Omicron wave has now been largely contained but higher inflation and greater uncertainty triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine have emerged as key risks. We anticipate real GDP will grow by 3.4% this ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Kingdom
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Kingdom We expect Russia's invasion of Ukraine to mean energy prices will stay higher for longer, pushing up UK inflation further and weakening growth. The energy price cap will delay some of the pain for consumers and mean the bigger hit to activity comes ... Read More
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Weekly Economic Briefings - Eurozone Weekly Economic Briefing - Eurozone
Weekly Economic Briefings - Eurozone Weekly Economic Briefing - Eurozone Russia’s invasion of Ukraine means that the economic impact of the conflict on Europe will be larger than we previously assumed. Our new baseline sees higher gas, oil and food prices over the medium term, as well as increased d ... Read More
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Weekly Economic Briefings - Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
Weekly Economic Briefings - Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing With Russia now intent on installing a puppet government in Ukraine, we have moved our global baseline in line with our scenario for a full-scale invasion. Equity returns around previous geopolitical events are mostly comforting f ... Read More
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Weekly Economic Briefings - Uk Weekly Economic Briefing
Weekly Economic Briefings - Uk Weekly Economic Briefing A jump in commodity prices following Russia’s attack on Ukraine points to inflation staying higher for longer, adding to the squeeze on real incomes. A rise in Bank Rate in March is still live, but anything beyond a 25bps hike now look off the ... Read More
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Weekly Economic Briefings - Us Weekly Economic Briefing
Weekly Economic Briefings - Us Weekly Economic Briefing The Russian invasion of Ukraine will exacerbate existing inflation pressures, keeping inflation higher for longer. The war poses downside risks to the US economy as well, but the risks to inflation are greater and leave the Fed on track to begi ... Read More
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Weekly Economic Briefings - Eurozone Weekly Economic Briefing - Eurozone
Weekly Economic Briefings - Eurozone Weekly Economic Briefing - Eurozone Tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to put pressure on energy prices, which remain at extremely high levels. Barring a quick resolution of the conflict, high energy prices are likely to keep eurozone inflation elevated ... Read More
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Weekly Economic Briefings - Uk Weekly Economic Briefing
Weekly Economic Briefings - Uk Weekly Economic Briefing The lifting of Covid restrictions on January 27 adds to hopes that the worst of the pandemic is in the past and should boost consumer sentiment. But these positives face off against rising inflation and growing cost of living pressures. ... Read More
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Weekly Economic Briefings - Uk Weekly Economic Briefing
Weekly Economic Briefings - Uk Weekly Economic Briefing A strong outturn for November took the output measure of GDP above its pre-pandemic peak. Given GDP is likely to have fallen in December, the quarterly version probably didn’t pass this landmark in Q4. However, timely data suggests the hit from ... Read More
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Weekly Economic Briefings - Eurozone Weekly Economic Briefing - Eurozone
Weekly Economic Briefings - Eurozone Weekly Economic Briefing - Eurozone Strong industrial production numbers for November offer some hope that the worst is over, supporting our view of a gradual resolution of supply-side issues. Moreover, the strong gains in Spain and Italy could very likely result ... Read More
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Weekly Economic Briefings - Us Weekly Economic Briefing
Weekly Economic Briefings - Us Weekly Economic Briefing While the Fed will walk a tightrope to avoid an excessive tightening of financial conditions and support continued labor market healing, policymakers look set to move swiftly to confront the strongest inflation readings in 40 years. We now see ... Read More
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Weekly Economic Briefings - Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
Weekly Economic Briefings - Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing Emerging Markets (EM) enter 2022 facing a resurgent pandemic, threatening some softening in demand in Q1, alongside continued supply-chain disruption. Apart from China, most governments have not tightened Covid-related curbs to an ... Read More
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Weekly Economic Briefings - Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing
Weekly Economic Briefings - Emerging Markets Weekly Economic Briefing In Kazakhstan, protests against fuel price hikes have led to violent clashes with government forces in Almaty. President Tokayev has used the conflict as a pretext for completing the transfer of power from former President Nazarba ... Read More
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Weekly Economic Briefings - Eurozone Weekly Economic Briefing - Eurozone
Weekly Economic Briefings - Eurozone Weekly Economic Briefing - Eurozone The news for Europe at the start of the year has been mixed. The spread of the Omicron variant has resulted in a predictable surge in infections, in many countries widely surpassing previous waves. But there continue to be enco ... Read More
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